Northern Powergrid Element Energy

Northern Powergrid DFES 2020: graphs

The following graphs are supplemental to Northern Powergrid's DFES 2020 interactive map. Each graph can be downloaded as a scalable-vector-graphic (SVG). The underlying data for each graph is also available as a CSV file.

Emissions

Figure 1: Annual carbon emissions (MtCO2)
Scenario2020203020402050
Net Zero Early34.6521.5592.4190.566
0 10 20 30 Mt CO2(e) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Net Zero Early 2020: 34.65 2021: 33.419 2022: 32.594 2023: 31.664 2024: 30.525 2025: 29.253 2026: 27.631 2027: 26.194 2028: 25.041 2029: 23.559 2030: 21.559 2031: 19.399 2032: 17.206 2033: 15.137 2034: 13.215 2035: 11.4 2036: 9.127 2037: 7.08 2038: 5.286 2039: 3.698 2040: 2.419 2041: 1.642 2042: 1.348 2043: 1.128 2044: 0.928 2045: 0.837 2046: 0.789 2047: 0.704 2048: 0.673 2049: 0.618 2050: 0.566
Figure 2: Cumulative carbon emissions (MtCO2)
Scenario2020203020402050
Net Zero Early34.65316.091420.058429.292
0 100 200 300 400 Cumulative emissions (MtCO2) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Net Zero Early 2020: 34.65 2021: 68.069 2022: 100.663 2023: 132.328 2024: 162.853 2025: 192.106 2026: 219.738 2027: 245.932 2028: 270.973 2029: 294.532 2030: 316.091 2031: 335.489 2032: 352.696 2033: 367.833 2034: 381.048 2035: 392.448 2036: 401.575 2037: 408.655 2038: 413.941 2039: 417.639 2040: 420.058 2041: 421.7 2042: 423.048 2043: 424.177 2044: 425.105 2045: 425.942 2046: 426.731 2047: 427.435 2048: 428.108 2049: 428.726 2050: 429.292
Figure 3: Network annual carbon emission breakdown - Early Net Zero (MtCO2)
Scenario2020203020402050
Heating oil1.1610.6590.10.09
Natural gas13.62311.0180.493
Hydrogen0.0040.1910.11
Bioenergy0.0230.0780.1370.012
Petrol5.2112.1850.2470.006
Diesel11.2676.7020.7850.006
Electricity3.3650.9130.4670.341
Total Emissions34.6521.5592.4190.566
0 10 20 30 Annual emissions (MtCO2) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Heating oil 2020: 1.161 2021: 1.146 2022: 1.135 2023: 1.098 2024: 1.059 2025: 0.98 2026: 0.908 2027: 0.844 2028: 0.782 2029: 0.721 2030: 0.659 2031: 0.598 2032: 0.537 2033: 0.483 2034: 0.405 2035: 0.352 2036: 0.277 2037: 0.199 2038: 0.147 2039: 0.098 2040: 0.1 2041: 0.102 2042: 0.104 2043: 0.102 2044: 0.1 2045: 0.099 2046: 0.098 2047: 0.095 2048: 0.093 2049: 0.093 2050: 0.09 Natural gas 2020: 13.623 2021: 13.444 2022: 13.261 2023: 13.069 2024: 12.897 2025: 12.686 2026: 12.487 2027: 12.294 2028: 12.106 2029: 11.923 2030: 11.018 2031: 10.113 2032: 9.235 2033: 8.358 2034: 7.486 2035: 6.626 2036: 5.058 2037: 3.657 2038: 2.421 2039: 1.339 2040: 0.493 Hydrogen 2021: 0.001 2022: 0.001 2023: 0.001 2024: 0.001 2025: 0.001 2026: 0.001 2027: 0.001 2028: 0.001 2029: 0.001 2030: 0.004 2031: 0.006 2032: 0.007 2033: 0.008 2034: 0.008 2035: 0.008 2036: 0.098 2037: 0.156 2038: 0.188 2039: 0.198 2040: 0.191 2041: 0.191 2042: 0.178 2043: 0.153 2044: 0.116 2045: 0.125 2046: 0.123 2047: 0.119 2048: 0.116 2049: 0.113 2050: 0.11 Bioenergy 2020: 0.023 2021: 0.029 2022: 0.035 2023: 0.041 2024: 0.047 2025: 0.052 2026: 0.058 2027: 0.062 2028: 0.067 2029: 0.072 2030: 0.078 2031: 0.084 2032: 0.09 2033: 0.097 2034: 0.104 2035: 0.109 2036: 0.116 2037: 0.123 2038: 0.13 2039: 0.137 2040: 0.137 2041: 0.122 2042: 0.079 2043: 0.048 2044: 0.027 2045: 0.015 2046: 0.015 2047: 0.014 2048: 0.013 2049: 0.013 2050: 0.012 Petrol 2020: 5.211 2021: 5.193 2022: 5.045 2023: 4.693 2024: 4.321 2025: 3.924 2026: 3.507 2027: 3.135 2028: 2.791 2029: 2.461 2030: 2.185 2031: 1.904 2032: 1.573 2033: 1.284 2034: 1.051 2035: 0.853 2036: 0.684 2037: 0.541 2038: 0.423 2039: 0.326 2040: 0.247 2041: 0.184 2042: 0.134 2043: 0.096 2044: 0.068 2045: 0.046 2046: 0.031 2047: 0.021 2048: 0.014 2049: 0.009 2050: 0.006 Diesel 2020: 11.267 2021: 11.313 2022: 11.269 2023: 11.08 2024: 10.84 2025: 10.43 2026: 9.79 2027: 9.106 2028: 8.345 2029: 7.529 2030: 6.702 2031: 5.876 2032: 5.03 2033: 4.249 2034: 3.522 2035: 2.865 2036: 2.328 2037: 1.856 2038: 1.443 2039: 1.087 2040: 0.785 2041: 0.551 2042: 0.367 2043: 0.23 2044: 0.134 2045: 0.077 2046: 0.048 2047: 0.029 2048: 0.018 2049: 0.011 2050: 0.006 Electricity 2020: 3.365 2021: 2.293 2022: 1.849 2023: 1.684 2024: 1.361 2025: 1.178 2026: 0.881 2027: 0.752 2028: 0.949 2029: 0.853 2030: 0.913 2031: 0.819 2032: 0.735 2033: 0.659 2034: 0.64 2035: 0.587 2036: 0.567 2037: 0.547 2038: 0.535 2039: 0.514 2040: 0.467 2041: 0.493 2042: 0.487 2043: 0.499 2044: 0.483 2045: 0.474 2046: 0.475 2047: 0.426 2048: 0.418 2049: 0.379 2050: 0.341 Total Emissions 2020: 34.65 2021: 33.419 2022: 32.594 2023: 31.664 2024: 30.525 2025: 29.253 2026: 27.631 2027: 26.194 2028: 25.041 2029: 23.559 2030: 21.559 2031: 19.399 2032: 17.206 2033: 15.137 2034: 13.215 2035: 11.4 2036: 9.127 2037: 7.08 2038: 5.286 2039: 3.698 2040: 2.419 2041: 1.642 2042: 1.348 2043: 1.128 2044: 0.928 2045: 0.837 2046: 0.789 2047: 0.704 2048: 0.673 2049: 0.618 2050: 0.566

Low carbon technologies

Figure 4: Electric vehicle uptake forecast.
Scenario2020203020402050
Consumer transformation48816140538740668043699764
System transformation3949574230737068003894709
Steady progression3960160608930768144335203
Leading the way48674155316940181572777407
Net Zero Early36956185072945963735020767
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 Number 2020 2030 2040 2050 Consumer transformation 2019: 26353 2020: 48816 2021: 85378 2022: 138243 2023: 199929 2024: 283107 2025: 390798 2026: 591758 2027: 793697 2028: 996615 2029: 1200512 2030: 1405387 2031: 1743832 2032: 2084541 2033: 2427512 2034: 2772745 2035: 3120242 2036: 3308699 2037: 3497584 2038: 3686897 2039: 3876637 2040: 4066804 2041: 4125754 2042: 4117329 2043: 4098209 2044: 4069016 2045: 4030767 2046: 3983677 2047: 3927599 2048: 3862044 2049: 3786452 2050: 3699764 System transformation 2019: 26353 2020: 39495 2021: 58283 2022: 83507 2023: 115349 2024: 155299 2025: 206418 2026: 312686 2027: 419409 2028: 526587 2029: 634219 2030: 742307 2031: 1008078 2032: 1275692 2033: 1545150 2034: 1816451 2035: 2089596 2036: 2410459 2037: 2732610 2038: 3056051 2039: 3380781 2040: 3706800 2041: 3922611 2042: 4088850 2043: 4195461 2044: 4186739 2045: 4163257 2046: 4124784 2047: 4070293 2048: 4021726 2049: 3963395 2050: 3894709 Steady progression 2019: 26353 2020: 39601 2021: 58354 2022: 82912 2023: 111155 2024: 147080 2025: 191496 2026: 273715 2027: 356283 2028: 439202 2029: 522470 2030: 606089 2031: 790179 2032: 975602 2033: 1162357 2034: 1350446 2035: 1539869 2036: 1842394 2037: 2147351 2038: 2454741 2039: 2764562 2040: 3076814 2041: 3362836 2042: 3630812 2043: 3872204 2044: 4083210 2045: 4231311 2046: 4260558 2047: 4285024 2048: 4305178 2049: 4321674 2050: 4335203 Leading the way 2019: 26353 2020: 48674 2021: 82957 2022: 131996 2023: 198997 2024: 282283 2025: 391975 2026: 621610 2027: 852548 2028: 1084787 2029: 1318327 2030: 1553169 2031: 1921193 2032: 2291417 2033: 2663841 2034: 3038465 2035: 3415290 2036: 3535640 2037: 3656102 2038: 3776676 2039: 3897361 2040: 4018157 2041: 3968358 2042: 3904582 2043: 3826500 2044: 3733130 2045: 3623383 2046: 3495933 2047: 3349097 2048: 3181566 2049: 2991599 2050: 2777407 Net Zero Early 2019: 26353 2020: 36956 2021: 63278 2022: 115961 2023: 221122 2024: 357777 2025: 531025 2026: 723357 2027: 946802 2028: 1201752 2029: 1483046 2030: 1850729 2031: 2205852 2032: 2550192 2033: 2880613 2034: 3193697 2035: 3486929 2036: 3756515 2037: 4002778 2038: 4224666 2039: 4422579 2040: 4596373 2041: 4705566 2042: 4793332 2043: 4861431 2044: 4913065 2045: 4951311 2046: 4977938 2047: 4996432 2048: 5008313 2049: 5016030 2050: 5020767
Figure 5: Electric vehicle penetration of total car stock (%)
Scenario2020203020402050
Net Zero Early1398896
0 20 40 60 80 100 EVs (%) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Net Zero Early 2020: 1 2021: 1 2022: 3 2023: 5 2024: 8 2025: 12 2026: 16 2027: 20 2028: 26 2029: 31 2030: 39 2031: 46 2032: 52 2033: 58 2034: 64 2035: 69 2036: 74 2037: 78 2038: 82 2039: 85 2040: 88 2041: 90 2042: 91 2043: 93 2044: 94 2045: 94 2046: 95 2047: 95 2048: 95 2049: 96 2050: 96
Figure 6: Total number of heat pumps
Scenario2020203020402050
Consumer transformation3763581028020863353237997
System transformation346012466026198811212897
Steady progression2934779949251947637258
Leading the way39158102587023380553223021
Net Zero Early2885854460031321714188585
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 Number 2020 2030 2040 2050 Consumer transformation 2019: 27449 2020: 37635 2021: 42625 2022: 51849 2023: 142975 2024: 222897 2025: 298511 2026: 373501 2027: 457974 2028: 609858 2029: 694920 2030: 810280 2031: 906722 2032: 996504 2033: 1182915 2034: 1346665 2035: 1468107 2036: 1611974 2037: 1715303 2038: 1835268 2039: 1977042 2040: 2086335 2041: 2179312 2042: 2271089 2043: 2345465 2044: 2422369 2045: 2640439 2046: 2798431 2047: 2893700 2048: 2958393 2049: 3160698 2050: 3237997 System transformation 2019: 27449 2020: 34601 2021: 44089 2022: 53319 2023: 73401 2024: 93351 2025: 119669 2026: 146126 2027: 172306 2028: 196348 2029: 222428 2030: 246602 2031: 264699 2032: 314973 2033: 357789 2034: 395800 2035: 456795 2036: 510086 2037: 550990 2038: 576172 2039: 600708 2040: 619881 2041: 721907 2042: 825436 2043: 875391 2044: 889701 2045: 939177 2046: 1039159 2047: 1125529 2048: 1160112 2049: 1165570 2050: 1212897 Steady progression 2019: 27449 2020: 29347 2021: 28979 2022: 32126 2023: 33808 2024: 37324 2025: 41785 2026: 46102 2027: 53763 2028: 62313 2029: 71829 2030: 79949 2031: 97780 2032: 116688 2033: 132694 2034: 148893 2035: 167134 2036: 182118 2037: 195328 2038: 208486 2039: 220218 2040: 251947 2041: 292474 2042: 331073 2043: 367180 2044: 400988 2045: 431892 2046: 479155 2047: 522939 2048: 563684 2049: 601727 2050: 637258 Leading the way 2019: 27449 2020: 39158 2021: 64797 2022: 137431 2023: 200284 2024: 278683 2025: 360094 2026: 441815 2027: 565082 2028: 741691 2029: 860501 2030: 1025870 2031: 1156634 2032: 1276532 2033: 1412743 2034: 1504845 2035: 1611859 2036: 1721678 2037: 1809115 2038: 1881986 2039: 2101125 2040: 2338055 2041: 2526799 2042: 2652913 2043: 2873226 2044: 2975295 2045: 3141405 2046: 3159252 2047: 3182718 2048: 3196470 2049: 3199013 2050: 3223021 Net Zero Early 2019: 27456 2020: 28858 2021: 31576 2022: 40269 2023: 56326 2024: 74966 2025: 113233 2026: 151814 2027: 191340 2028: 232390 2029: 276190 2030: 544600 2031: 814312 2032: 1081208 2033: 1346845 2034: 1612504 2035: 1876239 2036: 2140697 2037: 2400209 2038: 2653156 2039: 2899382 2040: 3132171 2041: 3368263 2042: 3606153 2043: 3845351 2044: 4075649 2045: 4096373 2046: 4115409 2047: 4134112 2048: 4152491 2049: 4170555 2050: 4188585
Figure 7: Battery storage capacity installed (GW)
Scenario2020203020402050
Consumer transformation0.2041.1071.7932.590
System transformation0.1900.2850.8101.111
Steady progression0.1970.5581.1641.873
Leading the way0.1970.9302.6922.950
Net Zero Early0.1850.9262.6003.045
0 1 2 3 Installed capacity (GW) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Consumer transformation 2019: 0.187 2020: 0.204 2021: 0.222 2022: 0.242 2023: 0.306 2024: 0.389 2025: 0.496 2026: 0.615 2027: 0.841 2028: 0.982 2029: 1.099 2030: 1.107 2031: 1.207 2032: 1.226 2033: 1.250 2034: 1.306 2035: 1.383 2036: 1.463 2037: 1.565 2038: 1.655 2039: 1.700 2040: 1.793 2041: 1.912 2042: 1.962 2043: 2.077 2044: 2.201 2045: 2.367 2046: 2.433 2047: 2.466 2048: 2.538 2049: 2.563 2050: 2.590 System transformation 2019: 0.187 2020: 0.190 2021: 0.192 2022: 0.197 2023: 0.208 2024: 0.211 2025: 0.215 2026: 0.241 2027: 0.258 2028: 0.274 2029: 0.276 2030: 0.285 2031: 0.391 2032: 0.462 2033: 0.493 2034: 0.516 2035: 0.615 2036: 0.698 2037: 0.709 2038: 0.746 2039: 0.793 2040: 0.810 2041: 0.847 2042: 0.899 2043: 0.901 2044: 0.946 2045: 1.007 2046: 1.041 2047: 1.085 2048: 1.085 2049: 1.111 2050: 1.111 Steady progression 2019: 0.187 2020: 0.197 2021: 0.208 2022: 0.220 2023: 0.237 2024: 0.241 2025: 0.248 2026: 0.257 2027: 0.408 2028: 0.458 2029: 0.523 2030: 0.558 2031: 0.678 2032: 0.718 2033: 0.765 2034: 0.813 2035: 0.978 2036: 1.039 2037: 1.072 2038: 1.097 2039: 1.143 2040: 1.164 2041: 1.243 2042: 1.351 2043: 1.546 2044: 1.657 2045: 1.658 2046: 1.721 2047: 1.760 2048: 1.798 2049: 1.862 2050: 1.873 Leading the way 2019: 0.187 2020: 0.197 2021: 0.208 2022: 0.220 2023: 0.273 2024: 0.283 2025: 0.298 2026: 0.308 2027: 0.316 2028: 0.458 2029: 0.588 2030: 0.930 2031: 1.248 2032: 1.374 2033: 1.511 2034: 1.613 2035: 1.773 2036: 1.947 2037: 2.236 2038: 2.514 2039: 2.608 2040: 2.692 2041: 2.773 2042: 2.805 2043: 2.878 2044: 2.899 2045: 2.899 2046: 2.899 2047: 2.900 2048: 2.933 2049: 2.950 2050: 2.950 Net Zero Early 2019: 0.185 2020: 0.185 2021: 0.207 2022: 0.261 2023: 0.352 2024: 0.377 2025: 0.444 2026: 0.537 2027: 0.611 2028: 0.736 2029: 0.804 2030: 0.926 2031: 1.035 2032: 1.127 2033: 1.336 2034: 1.501 2035: 1.663 2036: 1.879 2037: 2.094 2038: 2.386 2039: 2.519 2040: 2.600 2041: 2.760 2042: 2.815 2043: 2.891 2044: 2.936 2045: 2.950 2046: 2.964 2047: 2.976 2048: 2.990 2049: 3.017 2050: 3.045
Figure 8: Renewable generation installed (GW)
Scenario2020203020402050
Consumer transformation3.0865.37510.15814.469
System transformation3.0834.4096.2287.808
Steady progression3.0283.5644.2244.768
Leading the way3.1435.1298.50811.824
Net Zero Early3.0245.28.79510.965
0 5 10 15 Renewable generation (GW) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Consumer transformation 2019: 2.947 2020: 3.086 2021: 3.241 2022: 3.407 2023: 3.519 2024: 3.654 2025: 3.85 2026: 4.102 2027: 4.379 2028: 4.669 2029: 5 2030: 5.375 2031: 5.794 2032: 6.244 2033: 6.719 2034: 7.215 2035: 7.711 2036: 8.166 2037: 8.62 2038: 9.124 2039: 9.642 2040: 10.158 2041: 10.673 2042: 11.179 2043: 11.7 2044: 12.164 2045: 12.602 2046: 13.016 2047: 13.406 2048: 13.758 2049: 14.11 2050: 14.469 System transformation 2019: 2.947 2020: 3.083 2021: 3.227 2022: 3.375 2023: 3.453 2024: 3.545 2025: 3.647 2026: 3.776 2027: 3.914 2028: 4.064 2029: 4.226 2030: 4.409 2031: 4.609 2032: 4.823 2033: 5.04 2034: 5.261 2035: 5.464 2036: 5.606 2037: 5.731 2038: 5.89 2039: 6.057 2040: 6.228 2041: 6.4 2042: 6.568 2043: 6.735 2044: 6.889 2045: 7.046 2046: 7.2 2047: 7.353 2048: 7.503 2049: 7.655 2050: 7.808 Steady progression 2019: 2.947 2020: 3.028 2021: 3.115 2022: 3.197 2023: 3.245 2024: 3.293 2025: 3.321 2026: 3.353 2027: 3.39 2028: 3.438 2029: 3.494 2030: 3.564 2031: 3.644 2032: 3.734 2033: 3.822 2034: 3.925 2035: 3.999 2036: 4.036 2037: 4.077 2038: 4.116 2039: 4.168 2040: 4.224 2041: 4.278 2042: 4.332 2043: 4.387 2044: 4.443 2045: 4.499 2046: 4.552 2047: 4.605 2048: 4.659 2049: 4.713 2050: 4.768 Leading the way 2019: 2.947 2020: 3.143 2021: 3.347 2022: 3.554 2023: 3.669 2024: 3.798 2025: 3.965 2026: 4.163 2027: 4.366 2028: 4.595 2029: 4.849 2030: 5.129 2031: 5.45 2032: 5.793 2033: 6.141 2034: 6.5 2035: 6.874 2036: 7.181 2037: 7.472 2038: 7.809 2039: 8.146 2040: 8.508 2041: 8.871 2042: 9.221 2043: 9.566 2044: 9.891 2045: 10.217 2046: 10.539 2047: 10.857 2048: 11.178 2049: 11.498 2050: 11.824 Net Zero Early 2019: 2.947 2020: 3.024 2021: 3.137 2022: 3.284 2023: 3.46 2024: 3.642 2025: 3.864 2026: 4.099 2027: 4.342 2028: 4.593 2029: 4.861 2030: 5.2 2031: 5.593 2032: 6.04 2033: 6.478 2034: 6.932 2035: 7.334 2036: 7.633 2037: 7.931 2038: 8.22 2039: 8.507 2040: 8.795 2041: 9.07 2042: 9.32 2043: 9.545 2044: 9.743 2045: 9.943 2046: 10.139 2047: 10.334 2048: 10.541 2049: 10.748 2050: 10.965

Network data

Mary to insert text here

Figure 9: Annual peak demand (GW)
Scenario2020203020402050
Consumer transformation6.4057.49310.65411.949
System transformation6.4126.7338.8459.656
Steady progression6.4376.9978.78210.107
Leading the way6.3696.9779.5709.581
Net Zero Early6.3586.91210.26211.028
Consumer transformation with customer flexibility - - -6.4037.2479.91611.175
System transformation with customer flexibility - - -6.4116.6128.2769.011
Steady progression with customer flexibility - - -6.4366.9168.3489.466
Leading The Way with customer flexibility - - -6.3676.7118.8628.997
Net Zero Early with customer flexibility - - -6.3586.5879.59610.334
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Annual peak demand (GW) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Consumer transformation 2019: 6.458 2020: 6.405 2021: 6.344 2022: 6.325 2023: 6.369 2024: 6.421 2025: 6.491 2026: 6.581 2027: 6.754 2028: 7.017 2029: 7.232 2030: 7.493 2031: 7.802 2032: 8.115 2033: 8.534 2034: 8.914 2035: 9.230 2036: 9.582 2037: 9.881 2038: 10.163 2039: 10.438 2040: 10.654 2041: 10.839 2042: 10.968 2043: 11.081 2044: 11.179 2045: 11.389 2046: 11.553 2047: 11.646 2048: 11.711 2049: 11.883 2050: 11.949 System transformation 2019: 6.458 2020: 6.412 2021: 6.368 2022: 6.344 2023: 6.353 2024: 6.363 2025: 6.376 2026: 6.423 2027: 6.470 2028: 6.543 2029: 6.629 2030: 6.733 2031: 6.881 2032: 7.045 2033: 7.238 2034: 7.458 2035: 7.679 2036: 7.918 2037: 8.180 2038: 8.428 2039: 8.643 2040: 8.845 2041: 9.008 2042: 9.185 2043: 9.297 2044: 9.387 2045: 9.427 2046: 9.534 2047: 9.582 2048: 9.614 2049: 9.625 2050: 9.656 Steady progression 2019: 6.459 2020: 6.437 2021: 6.457 2022: 6.470 2023: 6.494 2024: 6.536 2025: 6.591 2026: 6.636 2027: 6.703 2028: 6.791 2029: 6.894 2030: 6.997 2031: 7.103 2032: 7.231 2033: 7.373 2034: 7.529 2035: 7.699 2036: 7.887 2037: 8.101 2038: 8.319 2039: 8.546 2040: 8.782 2041: 9.001 2042: 9.206 2043: 9.411 2044: 9.586 2045: 9.726 2046: 9.825 2047: 9.890 2048: 9.972 2049: 10.040 2050: 10.107 Leading the way 2019: 6.457 2020: 6.369 2021: 6.269 2022: 6.228 2023: 6.171 2024: 6.147 2025: 6.152 2026: 6.188 2027: 6.313 2028: 6.536 2029: 6.717 2030: 6.977 2031: 7.317 2032: 7.643 2033: 8.008 2034: 8.350 2035: 8.627 2036: 8.892 2037: 9.088 2038: 9.228 2039: 9.413 2040: 9.570 2041: 9.695 2042: 9.778 2043: 9.873 2044: 9.898 2045: 9.948 2046: 9.913 2047: 9.862 2048: 9.799 2049: 9.693 2050: 9.581 Net Zero Early 2019: 6.452 2020: 6.358 2021: 6.256 2022: 6.194 2023: 6.155 2024: 6.163 2025: 6.200 2026: 6.247 2027: 6.317 2028: 6.420 2029: 6.547 2030: 6.912 2031: 7.296 2032: 7.641 2033: 7.999 2034: 8.359 2035: 8.770 2036: 9.150 2037: 9.462 2038: 9.754 2039: 10.017 2040: 10.262 2041: 10.478 2042: 10.683 2043: 10.877 2044: 11.053 2045: 11.072 2046: 11.066 2047: 11.075 2048: 11.065 2049: 11.044 2050: 11.028 Consumer transformation with customer flexibility 2019: 6.457 2020: 6.403 2021: 6.339 2022: 6.315 2023: 6.353 2024: 6.393 2025: 6.445 2026: 6.514 2027: 6.656 2028: 6.875 2029: 7.041 2030: 7.247 2031: 7.491 2032: 7.737 2033: 8.100 2034: 8.421 2035: 8.684 2036: 8.984 2037: 9.233 2038: 9.480 2039: 9.724 2040: 9.916 2041: 10.083 2042: 10.206 2043: 10.312 2044: 10.407 2045: 10.614 2046: 10.775 2047: 10.868 2048: 10.934 2049: 11.106 2050: 11.175 System transformation with customer flexibility 2019: 6.458 2020: 6.411 2021: 6.366 2022: 6.339 2023: 6.345 2024: 6.350 2025: 6.355 2026: 6.391 2027: 6.426 2028: 6.477 2029: 6.537 2030: 6.612 2031: 6.723 2032: 6.848 2033: 7.000 2034: 7.173 2035: 7.346 2036: 7.535 2037: 7.742 2038: 7.941 2039: 8.114 2040: 8.276 2041: 8.409 2042: 8.560 2043: 8.656 2044: 8.739 2045: 8.778 2046: 8.885 2047: 8.932 2048: 8.963 2049: 8.977 2050: 9.011 Steady progression with customer flexibility 2019: 6.459 2020: 6.436 2021: 6.456 2022: 6.468 2023: 6.491 2024: 6.531 2025: 6.581 2026: 6.621 2027: 6.679 2028: 6.751 2029: 6.834 2030: 6.916 2031: 6.998 2032: 7.099 2033: 7.214 2034: 7.340 2035: 7.476 2036: 7.627 2037: 7.797 2038: 7.973 2039: 8.155 2040: 8.348 2041: 8.527 2042: 8.696 2043: 8.865 2044: 9.010 2045: 9.128 2046: 9.214 2047: 9.272 2048: 9.345 2049: 9.405 2050: 9.466 Leading The Way with customer flexibility 2019: 6.456 2020: 6.367 2021: 6.264 2022: 6.218 2023: 6.155 2024: 6.120 2025: 6.107 2026: 6.121 2027: 6.215 2028: 6.391 2029: 6.516 2030: 6.711 2031: 6.976 2032: 7.231 2033: 7.532 2034: 7.810 2035: 8.034 2036: 8.254 2037: 8.413 2038: 8.534 2039: 8.705 2040: 8.862 2041: 8.991 2042: 9.077 2043: 9.179 2044: 9.214 2045: 9.273 2046: 9.251 2047: 9.215 2048: 9.168 2049: 9.085 2050: 8.997 Net Zero Early with customer flexibility 2019: 6.452 2020: 6.358 2021: 6.256 2022: 6.194 2023: 6.131 2024: 6.117 2025: 6.112 2026: 6.117 2027: 6.135 2028: 6.175 2029: 6.267 2030: 6.587 2031: 6.929 2032: 7.235 2033: 7.553 2034: 7.875 2035: 8.236 2036: 8.575 2037: 8.858 2038: 9.126 2039: 9.369 2040: 9.596 2041: 9.802 2042: 9.998 2043: 10.186 2044: 10.358 2045: 10.374 2046: 10.367 2047: 10.376 2048: 10.368 2049: 10.348 2050: 10.334
Figure 10: Network peak demand breakdown - Net Zero Early (GW)
Scenario2020203020402050
Domestic2.7462.8492.9613.058
I & C3.8013.5133.363.282
Heat pumps - domestic0.0230.2262.224.71
Heat pumps - I & C0.0430.1140.5291.017
EV0.0160.7081.9422.183
0 1 2 3 4 Annual gross peak demand (GW) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Domestic 2020: 2.746 2021: 2.745 2022: 2.745 2023: 2.753 2024: 2.761 2025: 2.771 2026: 2.784 2027: 2.798 2028: 2.813 2029: 2.83 2030: 2.849 2031: 2.862 2032: 2.874 2033: 2.886 2034: 2.898 2035: 2.908 2036: 2.919 2037: 2.93 2038: 2.941 2039: 2.951 2040: 2.961 2041: 2.971 2042: 2.981 2043: 2.991 2044: 3.001 2045: 3.011 2046: 3.02 2047: 3.03 2048: 3.039 2049: 3.049 2050: 3.058 I & C 2020: 3.801 2021: 3.764 2022: 3.73 2023: 3.697 2024: 3.666 2025: 3.637 2026: 3.609 2027: 3.583 2028: 3.558 2029: 3.535 2030: 3.513 2031: 3.493 2032: 3.473 2033: 3.455 2034: 3.439 2035: 3.423 2036: 3.409 2037: 3.395 2038: 3.383 2039: 3.371 2040: 3.36 2041: 3.35 2042: 3.341 2043: 3.332 2044: 3.323 2045: 3.316 2046: 3.308 2047: 3.301 2048: 3.295 2049: 3.288 2050: 3.282 Heat pumps - domestic 2020: 0.023 2021: 0.026 2022: 0.035 2023: 0.05 2024: 0.067 2025: 0.087 2026: 0.108 2027: 0.134 2028: 0.162 2029: 0.192 2030: 0.226 2031: 0.259 2032: 0.289 2033: 0.319 2034: 0.35 2035: 0.68 2036: 1.004 2037: 1.318 2038: 1.625 2039: 1.923 2040: 2.22 2041: 2.518 2042: 2.809 2043: 3.101 2044: 3.391 2045: 3.674 2046: 3.947 2047: 4.216 2048: 4.481 2049: 4.726 2050: 4.71 Heat pumps - I & C 2020: 0.043 2021: 0.047 2022: 0.053 2023: 0.061 2024: 0.067 2025: 0.072 2026: 0.078 2027: 0.087 2028: 0.096 2029: 0.105 2030: 0.114 2031: 0.122 2032: 0.129 2033: 0.132 2034: 0.14 2035: 0.212 2036: 0.28 2037: 0.344 2038: 0.407 2039: 0.469 2040: 0.529 2041: 0.589 2042: 0.646 2043: 0.702 2044: 0.758 2045: 0.812 2046: 0.866 2047: 0.919 2048: 0.972 2049: 1.024 2050: 1.017 EV 2020: 0.016 2021: 0.025 2022: 0.041 2023: 0.079 2024: 0.138 2025: 0.208 2026: 0.281 2027: 0.365 2028: 0.466 2029: 0.58 2030: 0.708 2031: 0.816 2032: 0.919 2033: 1.034 2034: 1.152 2035: 1.341 2036: 1.513 2037: 1.641 2038: 1.757 2039: 1.854 2040: 1.942 2041: 2.003 2042: 2.056 2043: 2.1 2044: 2.136 2045: 2.162 2046: 2.179 2047: 2.189 2048: 2.193 2049: 2.19 2050: 2.183
Figure 11: Network energy consumption breakdown - Net Zero Early (TWh)
Scenario2020203020402050
Domestic13.13413.62514.15914.627
I & C23.52521.73720.78520.296
Heat pumps - domestic0.0861.98112.84516.556
Heat pumps - I & C0.1490.6442.9093.528
EV0.0914.82212.13212.567
0 5 10 15 20 Network energy consumption (TWh) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Domestic 2020: 13.134 2021: 13.128 2022: 13.131 2023: 13.167 2024: 13.208 2025: 13.257 2026: 13.315 2027: 13.384 2028: 13.457 2029: 13.537 2030: 13.625 2031: 13.688 2032: 13.749 2033: 13.806 2034: 13.860 2035: 13.911 2036: 13.962 2037: 14.014 2038: 14.063 2039: 14.108 2040: 14.159 2041: 14.208 2042: 14.257 2043: 14.305 2044: 14.353 2045: 14.399 2046: 14.445 2047: 14.490 2048: 14.535 2049: 14.581 2050: 14.627 I & C 2020: 23.525 2021: 23.298 2022: 23.083 2023: 22.880 2024: 22.687 2025: 22.505 2026: 22.333 2027: 22.170 2028: 22.017 2029: 21.873 2030: 21.737 2031: 21.609 2032: 21.490 2033: 21.379 2034: 21.275 2035: 21.178 2036: 21.087 2037: 21.003 2038: 20.925 2039: 20.852 2040: 20.785 2041: 20.722 2042: 20.663 2043: 20.608 2044: 20.557 2045: 20.509 2046: 20.463 2047: 20.419 2048: 20.377 2049: 20.336 2050: 20.296 Heat pumps - domestic 2020: 0.086 2021: 0.096 2022: 0.126 2023: 0.182 2024: 0.247 2025: 0.363 2026: 0.475 2027: 0.586 2028: 0.698 2029: 0.815 2030: 1.981 2031: 3.143 2032: 4.262 2033: 5.389 2034: 6.513 2035: 7.622 2036: 8.725 2037: 9.801 2038: 10.848 2039: 11.869 2040: 12.845 2041: 13.828 2042: 14.811 2043: 15.796 2044: 16.728 2045: 16.735 2046: 16.700 2047: 16.682 2048: 16.645 2049: 16.601 2050: 16.556 Heat pumps - I & C 2020: 0.149 2021: 0.162 2022: 0.182 2023: 0.206 2024: 0.230 2025: 0.256 2026: 0.283 2027: 0.316 2028: 0.349 2029: 0.381 2030: 0.644 2031: 0.899 2032: 1.146 2033: 1.376 2034: 1.617 2035: 1.858 2036: 2.083 2037: 2.299 2038: 2.509 2039: 2.715 2040: 2.909 2041: 3.100 2042: 3.290 2043: 3.476 2044: 3.661 2045: 3.638 2046: 3.616 2047: 3.594 2048: 3.572 2049: 3.550 2050: 3.528 EV 2020: 0.091 2021: 0.149 2022: 0.271 2023: 0.560 2024: 0.953 2025: 1.418 2026: 1.910 2027: 2.467 2028: 3.129 2029: 3.855 2030: 4.822 2031: 5.706 2032: 6.528 2033: 7.363 2034: 8.155 2035: 9.206 2036: 10.131 2037: 10.766 2038: 11.321 2039: 11.757 2040: 12.132 2041: 12.357 2042: 12.527 2043: 12.642 2044: 12.720 2045: 12.753 2046: 12.750 2047: 12.728 2048: 12.687 2049: 12.631 2050: 12.567
Figure 12: Annual network energy consumption (TWh)
Scenario2020203020402050
Consumer transformation36.50139.19450.64755.463
System transformation36.59137.47645.71049.512
Steady progression36.73739.10645.65951.269
Leading the way36.34536.99548.02050.332
Net Zero Early36.39638.70755.79159.242
0 20 40 60 Energy consumption (TWh) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Consumer transformation 2019: 36.883 2020: 36.501 2021: 36.091 2022: 35.852 2023: 35.934 2024: 36.018 2025: 36.132 2026: 36.334 2027: 36.852 2028: 37.715 2029: 38.369 2030: 39.194 2031: 40.198 2032: 41.216 2033: 42.729 2034: 44.144 2035: 45.342 2036: 46.651 2037: 47.708 2038: 48.777 2039: 49.815 2040: 50.647 2041: 51.271 2042: 51.753 2043: 52.122 2044: 52.461 2045: 53.333 2046: 53.953 2047: 54.296 2048: 54.501 2049: 55.213 2050: 55.463 System transformation 2019: 36.884 2020: 36.591 2021: 36.358 2022: 36.217 2023: 36.224 2024: 36.246 2025: 36.302 2026: 36.423 2027: 36.620 2028: 36.857 2029: 37.128 2030: 37.476 2031: 37.964 2032: 38.650 2033: 39.418 2034: 40.257 2035: 41.188 2036: 42.174 2037: 43.150 2038: 44.083 2039: 44.939 2040: 45.710 2041: 46.614 2042: 47.383 2043: 47.844 2044: 48.140 2045: 48.353 2046: 48.905 2047: 49.172 2048: 49.304 2049: 49.345 2050: 49.512 Steady progression 2019: 36.885 2020: 36.737 2021: 36.833 2022: 36.908 2023: 37.038 2024: 37.211 2025: 37.401 2026: 37.622 2027: 37.918 2028: 38.279 2029: 38.675 2030: 39.106 2031: 39.510 2032: 39.973 2033: 40.495 2034: 41.051 2035: 41.669 2036: 42.390 2037: 43.141 2038: 43.962 2039: 44.801 2040: 45.659 2041: 46.514 2042: 47.361 2043: 48.164 2044: 48.904 2045: 49.482 2046: 49.896 2047: 50.267 2048: 50.625 2049: 50.955 2050: 51.269 Leading the way 2019: 36.883 2020: 36.345 2021: 35.753 2022: 35.442 2023: 35.026 2024: 34.790 2025: 34.637 2026: 34.587 2027: 34.902 2028: 35.580 2029: 36.147 2030: 36.995 2031: 38.286 2032: 39.587 2033: 41.025 2034: 42.323 2035: 43.526 2036: 44.596 2037: 45.394 2038: 46.059 2039: 47.096 2040: 48.020 2041: 48.743 2042: 49.212 2043: 49.947 2044: 50.298 2045: 50.826 2046: 50.822 2047: 50.798 2048: 50.692 2049: 50.489 2050: 50.332 Net Zero Early 2019: 36.904 2020: 36.396 2021: 35.848 2022: 35.484 2023: 35.248 2024: 35.235 2025: 35.361 2026: 35.539 2027: 35.820 2028: 36.255 2029: 36.809 2030: 38.707 2031: 40.640 2032: 42.464 2033: 44.298 2034: 46.107 2035: 48.169 2036: 50.092 2037: 51.693 2038: 53.185 2039: 54.535 2040: 55.791 2041: 56.912 2042: 57.976 2043: 58.982 2044: 59.906 2045: 59.879 2046: 59.781 2047: 59.690 2048: 59.559 2049: 59.399 2050: 59.242
Figure 13: Network annual fuel consumption breakdown - Net Zero Early (GWh-yr)
Scenario2020203020402050
Heating oil42512414365331
Natural gas66686539342411
Hydrogen2132112426917
Bioenergy147849708782770
Petrol225949475107026
Diesel4640927605323527
Electricity36987446356964275667
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 Fuel consumption (GWh-yr) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Heating oil 2020: 4251 2021: 4196 2022: 4157 2023: 4019 2024: 3878 2025: 3589 2026: 3323 2027: 3090 2028: 2862 2029: 2639 2030: 2414 2031: 2191 2032: 1967 2033: 1767 2034: 1481 2035: 1288 2036: 1014 2037: 730 2038: 537 2039: 358 2040: 365 2041: 372 2042: 379 2043: 374 2044: 367 2045: 363 2046: 358 2047: 350 2048: 342 2049: 340 2050: 331 Natural gas 2020: 66686 2021: 65814 2022: 64914 2023: 63976 2024: 63132 2025: 62103 2026: 61127 2027: 60181 2028: 59263 2029: 58364 2030: 53934 2031: 49503 2032: 45208 2033: 40915 2034: 36645 2035: 32436 2036: 24759 2037: 17903 2038: 11851 2039: 6553 2040: 2411 Hydrogen 2020: 2 2021: 6 2022: 9 2023: 10 2024: 13 2025: 16 2026: 18 2027: 22 2028: 27 2029: 32 2030: 132 2031: 234 2032: 333 2033: 430 2034: 523 2035: 619 2036: 4208 2037: 7044 2038: 9150 2039: 10532 2040: 11242 2041: 11234 2042: 10534 2043: 9153 2044: 7099 2045: 7622 2046: 7495 2047: 7312 2048: 7170 2049: 7045 2050: 6917 Bioenergy 2020: 1478 2021: 1869 2022: 2238 2023: 2607 2024: 2976 2025: 3346 2026: 3700 2027: 3991 2028: 4285 2029: 4577 2030: 4970 2031: 5349 2032: 5744 2033: 6198 2034: 6636 2035: 6981 2036: 7409 2037: 7854 2038: 8295 2039: 8733 2040: 8782 2041: 7791 2042: 5085 2043: 3063 2044: 1720 2045: 979 2046: 929 2047: 883 2048: 841 2049: 807 2050: 770 Petrol 2020: 22594 2021: 22514 2022: 21872 2023: 20345 2024: 18734 2025: 17015 2026: 15206 2027: 13592 2028: 12101 2029: 10670 2030: 9475 2031: 8255 2032: 6818 2033: 5569 2034: 4556 2035: 3698 2036: 2964 2037: 2348 2038: 1836 2039: 1414 2040: 1070 2041: 797 2042: 582 2043: 417 2044: 294 2045: 201 2046: 136 2047: 91 2048: 60 2049: 40 2050: 26 Diesel 2020: 46409 2021: 46600 2022: 46417 2023: 45638 2024: 44650 2025: 42963 2026: 40326 2027: 37508 2028: 34375 2029: 31012 2030: 27605 2031: 24203 2032: 20717 2033: 17500 2034: 14505 2035: 11801 2036: 9590 2037: 7643 2038: 5942 2039: 4478 2040: 3235 2041: 2268 2042: 1510 2043: 946 2044: 553 2045: 316 2046: 196 2047: 119 2048: 76 2049: 46 2050: 27 Electricity 2020: 36987 2021: 36856 2022: 36847 2023: 37092 2024: 37479 2025: 38023 2026: 38699 2027: 39551 2028: 40602 2029: 41814 2030: 44635 2031: 47409 2032: 50071 2033: 52737 2034: 55362 2035: 58228 2036: 60988 2037: 63394 2038: 65651 2039: 67721 2040: 69642 2041: 71344 2042: 72936 2043: 74420 2044: 75762 2045: 75875 2046: 75874 2047: 75867 2048: 75818 2049: 75747 2050: 75667
Figure 14: Additional industrial peak demand breakdown - Net Zero Early (MW)
Scenario2020203020402050
Electric HGVs0.217118.275463.484548.453
Electric Buses0.10117.28751.56262.494
Electrolysers0.0472.62119.15220.417
Large industry Fuel Switching0.000207.499459.672660.720
0 200 400 600 Peak demand (MW) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Electric HGVs 2019: 0.000 2020: 0.217 2021: 1.027 2022: 2.431 2023: 4.428 2024: 7.019 2025: 10.203 2026: 20.040 2027: 36.057 2028: 57.962 2029: 85.465 2030: 118.275 2031: 156.041 2032: 193.398 2033: 230.308 2034: 266.735 2035: 302.638 2036: 340.147 2037: 374.988 2038: 407.158 2039: 436.658 2040: 463.484 2041: 484.726 2042: 502.172 2043: 515.823 2044: 525.679 2045: 531.741 2046: 535.100 2047: 538.450 2048: 541.792 2049: 545.127 2050: 548.453 Electric Buses 2019: 0.000 2020: 0.101 2021: 0.469 2022: 1.103 2023: 2.003 2024: 3.170 2025: 4.603 2026: 6.386 2027: 8.578 2028: 11.147 2029: 14.060 2030: 17.287 2031: 20.615 2032: 24.032 2033: 27.447 2034: 30.731 2035: 33.893 2036: 37.828 2037: 41.633 2038: 45.309 2039: 48.619 2040: 51.562 2041: 54.080 2042: 56.170 2043: 57.833 2044: 59.225 2045: 60.344 2046: 61.193 2047: 61.769 2048: 62.072 2049: 62.313 2050: 62.494 Electrolysers 2019: 0.000 2020: 0.047 2021: 0.115 2022: 0.172 2023: 0.203 2024: 0.250 2025: 0.317 2026: 0.366 2027: 0.434 2028: 0.532 2029: 0.631 2030: 2.621 2031: 4.649 2032: 6.597 2033: 8.521 2034: 10.379 2035: 12.271 2036: 14.068 2037: 15.681 2038: 17.097 2039: 18.256 2040: 19.152 2041: 19.613 2042: 19.956 2043: 20.234 2044: 20.401 2045: 20.522 2046: 20.637 2047: 20.620 2048: 20.565 2049: 20.486 2050: 20.417 Large industry Fuel Switching 2019: 0.000 2020: 0.000 2021: 15.285 2022: 30.570 2023: 45.855 2024: 61.140 2025: 76.426 2026: 102.640 2027: 128.855 2028: 155.069 2029: 181.284 2030: 207.499 2031: 230.555 2032: 253.611 2033: 276.668 2034: 299.724 2035: 322.780 2036: 350.159 2037: 377.537 2038: 404.916 2039: 432.294 2040: 459.672 2041: 499.882 2042: 540.091 2043: 580.301 2044: 620.511 2045: 660.720 2046: 660.720 2047: 660.720 2048: 660.720 2049: 660.720 2050: 660.720
Figure 15: Additional industrial energy consumption breakdown - Net Zero Early (GWh)
Scenario2020203020402050
Electric HGVs2.8931576.8906179.3347312.166
Electric Buses2.314395.3801179.3071429.327
Electrolysers0.70939.949292.001311.454
Large industry Fuel Switching0.0001817.6894026.7295787.908
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 Peak demand (GWh) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Electric HGVs 2019: 0.000 2020: 2.893 2021: 13.697 2022: 32.413 2023: 59.040 2024: 93.579 2025: 136.029 2026: 267.186 2027: 480.723 2028: 772.769 2029: 1139.449 2030: 1576.890 2031: 2080.393 2032: 2578.449 2033: 3070.554 2034: 3556.201 2035: 4034.880 2036: 4534.961 2037: 4999.469 2038: 5428.380 2039: 5821.676 2040: 6179.334 2041: 6462.546 2042: 6695.143 2043: 6877.137 2044: 7008.539 2045: 7089.361 2046: 7134.140 2047: 7178.809 2048: 7223.370 2049: 7267.822 2050: 7312.166 Electric Buses 2019: 0.000 2020: 2.314 2021: 10.722 2022: 25.222 2023: 45.816 2024: 72.503 2025: 105.282 2026: 146.062 2027: 196.190 2028: 254.938 2029: 321.578 2030: 395.380 2031: 471.506 2032: 549.648 2033: 627.745 2034: 702.853 2035: 775.183 2036: 865.180 2037: 952.213 2038: 1036.278 2039: 1111.978 2040: 1179.307 2041: 1236.877 2042: 1284.685 2043: 1322.730 2044: 1354.557 2045: 1380.163 2046: 1399.572 2047: 1412.742 2048: 1419.668 2049: 1425.194 2050: 1429.327 Electrolysers 2019: 0.000 2020: 0.709 2021: 1.744 2022: 2.618 2023: 3.078 2024: 3.793 2025: 4.817 2026: 5.562 2027: 6.591 2028: 8.070 2029: 9.571 2030: 39.949 2031: 70.885 2032: 100.588 2033: 129.909 2034: 158.196 2035: 186.996 2036: 214.362 2037: 238.944 2038: 260.558 2039: 278.269 2040: 292.001 2041: 299.107 2042: 304.404 2043: 308.679 2044: 311.251 2045: 313.108 2046: 314.856 2047: 314.583 2048: 313.736 2049: 312.520 2050: 311.454 Large industry Fuel Switching 2019: 0.000 2020: 0.000 2021: 133.898 2022: 267.795 2023: 401.693 2024: 535.590 2025: 669.488 2026: 899.128 2027: 1128.768 2028: 1358.408 2029: 1588.048 2030: 1817.689 2031: 2019.662 2032: 2221.636 2033: 2423.609 2034: 2625.582 2035: 2827.556 2036: 3067.390 2037: 3307.225 2038: 3547.060 2039: 3786.894 2040: 4026.729 2041: 4378.965 2042: 4731.201 2043: 5083.437 2044: 5435.672 2045: 5787.908 2046: 5787.908 2047: 5787.908 2048: 5787.908 2049: 5787.908 2050: 5787.908

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