Northern Powergrid Emerging Thinking 2020 graphs

The following graphs are supplemental to Northern Powergrid's potential net zero scenarios interactive map. Each graph can be downloaded as a scalable-vector-graphic (SVG). The underlying data for each graph is also available as a CSV file.

Emissions

Figure 1: Annual carbon emissions (MtCO2)

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
High hydrogen	34.772	24.576	8.954	1.504
Deep electrification	34.313	23.080	8.611	0.441
Early net zero	34.650	21.559	2.419	0.566

SVG CSV

Figure 2: Cumulative carbon emissions (MtCO2)

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
High hydrogen	34.772	329.223	498.511	528.777
Deep electrification	34.313	321.398	476.242	505.477
Early net zero	34.650	316.091	420.058	429.292

SVG CSV

Figure 3: Network annual carbon emission breakdown - Deep electrification (MtCO2)

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
Heating oil	1.161	0.710	0.056	0.000
Natural gas	13.623	11.753	5.462	0.000
Hydrogen	0.000	0.002	0.016	0.011
Bioenergy	0.023	0.078	0.148	0.027
Petrol	5.079	2.226	0.433	0.024
Diesel	11.027	7.442	1.883	0.038
Electricity	3.399	0.868	0.615	0.341
Total Emissions	34.313	23.080	8.611	0.441

SVG CSV

Figure 4: Network annual carbon emission breakdown - Early net zero (MtCO2)

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
Heating oil	1.161	0.659	0.100	0.090
Natural gas	13.623	11.018	0.493	0.000
Hydrogen	0.000	0.004	0.191	0.110
Bioenergy	0.023	0.078	0.137	0.012
Petrol	5.211	2.185	0.247	0.006
Diesel	11.267	6.702	0.785	0.006
Electricity	3.365	0.913	0.467	0.341
Total Emissions	34.650	21.559	2.419	0.566

SVG CSV

Figure 5: Network annual carbon emission breakdown - High hydrogen (MtCO2)

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
Heating oil	1.199	1.201	0.365	0.000
Natural gas	13.715	12.366	4.817	0.000
Hydrogen	0.000	0.004	0.599	1.144
Bioenergy	0.021	0.075	0.141	0.018
Petrol	5.079	2.226	0.433	0.024
Diesel	11.027	7.708	2.131	0.057
Electricity	3.730	0.995	0.469	0.260
Total Emissions	34.772	24.576	8.954	1.504

SVG CSV

Low carbon technologies

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
High hydrogen	33503	1443687	3911973	4637666
Deep electrification	33503	1443687	3911973	4637666
Early net zero	35149	1848921	4594565	5018958

SVG CSV

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
High hydrogen	1	30	75	88
Deep electrification	1	30	75	88
Early net zero	1	39	88	96

SVG CSV

Figure 8: Total number of heat pumps

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
High hydrogen	28516	281198	655369	858236
Deep electrification	28891	326492	2011405	4161549
Early net zero	28891	566580	3146472	4192357

SVG CSV

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
High hydrogen	0.056	0.352	0.798	1.008
Deep electrification	0.069	0.912	3.036	3.533
Early net zero	0.065	0.733	2.206	2.503

SVG CSV

Figure 10: Renewable generation installed (GW)

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
High hydrogen	3.622	4.794	6.490	7.003
Deep electrification	3.804	7.768	12.740	15.546
Early net zero	3.689	6.056	9.340	10.750

SVG CSV

Network data

Figure 11: Annual peak demand (GW)

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
High hydrogen	6.707	7.633	9.410	10.053
Deep electrification	6.629	7.409	11.012	14.250
Early net zero	6.630	7.898	12.268	13.507
High hydrogen with customer flexibility - - -	6.707	7.400	8.885	9.472
Deep electrification with customer flexibility - - -	6.629	7.199	10.551	13.745
Early net zero with customer flexibility - - -	6.630	7.649	11.740	12.968

SVG CSV

Figure 12: Network peak demand breakdown - Deep electrification (GW)

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
Domestic	2.746	2.849	2.961	3.058
I & C	3.801	3.513	3.360	3.282
Heat pumps - domestic	0.023	0.226	2.220	4.710
Heat pumps - I & C	0.043	0.114	0.529	1.017
EV	0.016	0.708	1.942	2.183

SVG CSV

Figure 13: Network peak demand breakdown - Early net zero (GW)

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
Domestic	2.746	2.849	2.961	3.058
I & C	3.801	3.513	3.360	3.282
Heat pumps - domestic	0.023	0.226	2.220	4.710
Heat pumps - I & C	0.043	0.114	0.529	1.017
EV	0.016	0.708	1.942	2.183

SVG CSV

Figure 14: Network peak demand breakdown - High hydrogen (GW)

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
Domestic	2.804	2.941	3.063	3.178
I & C	3.819	3.648	3.675	3.777
Heat pumps - domestic	0.023	0.181	0.424	0.571
Heat pumps - I & C	0.043	0.098	0.149	0.168
EV	0.018	0.765	2.099	2.360

SVG CSV

Figure 15: Network energy consumption breakdown - Deep electrification (TWh)

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
Domestic	13.134	13.624	14.162	14.627
I & C	23.525	21.737	20.785	20.296
Heat pumps - domestic	0.086	0.846	8.283	17.550
Heat pumps - I & C	0.149	0.396	1.835	3.527
EV	0.086	3.765	10.330	11.613

SVG CSV

Figure 16: Network energy consumption breakdown - Early net zero (TWh)

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
Domestic	13.134	13.625	14.159	14.627
I & C	23.525	21.737	20.785	20.296
Heat pumps - domestic	0.086	1.981	12.845	16.556
Heat pumps - I & C	0.149	0.644	2.909	3.528
EV	0.091	4.822	12.132	12.567

SVG CSV

Figure 17: Network energy consumption breakdown - High Hydrogen (TWh)

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
Domestic	13.410	14.065	14.647	15.198
I & C	23.637	22.570	22.735	23.360
Heat pumps - domestic	0.086	0.677	1.587	2.137
Heat pumps - I & C	0.150	0.341	0.517	0.581
EV	0.086	3.765	10.330	11.613

SVG CSV

Figure 18: Annual network energy consumption (TWh)

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
High hydrogen	37.369	41.418	49.816	52.888
Deep electrification	36.980	40.368	55.394	67.612
Early net zero	36.984	42.809	62.829	67.574

SVG CSV

Figure 19: Network annual fuel consumption breakdown - Deep electrification (GWh-yr)

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
Heating oil	4251	2600	204
Natural gas	66686	57536	26736
Hydrogen	2	64	1240	2009
Bioenergy	1478	5014	9460	1706
Petrol	22020	9650	1876	104
Diesel	45422	30655	7755	158
Electricity	36982	41191	60550	75667

SVG CSV

Figure 20: Network annual fuel consumption breakdown - Early net zero (GWh-yr)

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
Heating oil	4251	2414	365	331
Natural gas	66686	53934	2411
Hydrogen	2	132	11242	6917
Bioenergy	1478	4970	8782	770
Petrol	22594	9475	1070	26
Diesel	46409	27605	3235	27
Electricity	36987	44635	69642	75667

SVG CSV

Figure 21: Network annual fuel consumption breakdown - High hydrogen (GWh-yr)

Scenario	2020	2030	2040	2050
Heating oil	4389	4399	1334
Natural gas	67140	60535	23581
Hydrogen	2	126	35058	69004
Bioenergy	1369	4783	9038	1161
Petrol	22020	9650	1876	104
Diesel	45422	31751	8777	236
Electricity	37371	41686	52945	57853

SVG CSV