Open Innovations Northern Powergrid Element Energy

Northern Powergrid DFES 2021: graphs

The following graphs are supplemental to Northern Powergrid's DFES 2020 interactive map. Each graph can be downloaded as a scalable-vector-graphic (SVG). The underlying data for each graph is also available as a CSV file.

Emissions

Figure 1: Annual carbon emissions (MtCO2)
Scenario2020203020402050
NPg Planning Scenario35.17920.2245.1730.220
0 10 20 30 Mt CO2(e) 2020 2030 2040 2050 NPg Planning Scenario 2020: 35.179 2021: 34.886 2022: 34.394 2023: 33.121 2024: 32.322 2025: 30.889 2026: 28.332 2027: 26.185 2028: 24.181 2029: 22.299 2030: 20.224 2031: 18.337 2032: 16.246 2033: 14.352 2034: 12.558 2035: 10.893 2036: 9.582 2037: 8.368 2038: 7.254 2039: 6.191 2040: 5.173 2041: 4.108 2042: 3.279 2043: 2.579 2044: 1.995 2045: 1.448 2046: 1.049 2047: 0.655 2048: 0.381 2049: 0.285 2050: 0.220
Figure 2: Cumulative carbon emissions (MtCO2)
Scenario2020203020402050
NPg Planning Scenario35.179322.012430.967446.966
0 100 200 300 400 Cumulative emissions (MtCO2) 2020 2030 2040 2050 NPg Planning Scenario 2020: 35.179 2021: 70.065 2022: 104.460 2023: 137.581 2024: 169.903 2025: 200.792 2026: 229.124 2027: 255.308 2028: 279.489 2029: 301.789 2030: 322.012 2031: 340.349 2032: 356.596 2033: 370.947 2034: 383.506 2035: 394.398 2036: 403.980 2037: 412.348 2038: 419.602 2039: 425.794 2040: 430.967 2041: 435.075 2042: 438.355 2043: 440.934 2044: 442.929 2045: 444.377 2046: 445.426 2047: 446.080 2048: 446.461 2049: 446.746 2050: 446.966
Figure 3: Network annual carbon emission breakdown - Planning Scenario (MtCO2)
Scenario2020203020402050
Natural gas11.1128.2283.3420.017
Hydrogen0.0000.0040.0270.058
Bioenergy0.0580.0340.0150.009
Petrol18.1429.8311.3140.027
Solid fuel0.2830.1410.0360.003
Electricity5.5841.9850.4400.105
Total emissions35.17920.2245.1730.220
0 10 20 30 Annual emissions (MtCO2) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Natural gas 2020: 11.112 2021: 10.983 2022: 10.854 2023: 10.690 2024: 10.518 2025: 10.279 2026: 9.987 2027: 9.638 2028: 9.181 2029: 8.711 2030: 8.228 2031: 7.840 2032: 7.426 2033: 6.955 2034: 6.418 2035: 5.878 2036: 5.366 2037: 4.875 2038: 4.379 2039: 3.869 2040: 3.342 2041: 2.781 2042: 2.278 2043: 1.834 2044: 1.408 2045: 1.044 2046: 0.714 2047: 0.392 2048: 0.136 2049: 0.071 2050: 0.017 Hydrogen 2020: 0.000 2021: 0.001 2022: 0.001 2023: 0.001 2024: 0.001 2025: 0.001 2026: 0.001 2027: 0.001 2028: 0.001 2029: 0.001 2030: 0.004 2031: 0.006 2032: 0.007 2033: 0.009 2034: 0.012 2035: 0.014 2036: 0.017 2037: 0.019 2038: 0.021 2039: 0.024 2040: 0.027 2041: 0.035 2042: 0.041 2043: 0.045 2044: 0.050 2045: 0.053 2046: 0.055 2047: 0.056 2048: 0.057 2049: 0.058 2050: 0.058 Bioenergy 2020: 0.058 2021: 0.057 2022: 0.055 2023: 0.053 2024: 0.051 2025: 0.049 2026: 0.046 2027: 0.043 2028: 0.039 2029: 0.037 2030: 0.034 2031: 0.032 2032: 0.030 2033: 0.028 2034: 0.026 2035: 0.024 2036: 0.022 2037: 0.020 2038: 0.019 2039: 0.017 2040: 0.015 2041: 0.013 2042: 0.012 2043: 0.010 2044: 0.010 2045: 0.010 2046: 0.010 2047: 0.010 2048: 0.010 2049: 0.010 2050: 0.009 Petrol 2020: 18.142 2021: 18.136 2022: 17.886 2023: 17.279 2024: 16.601 2025: 15.734 2026: 14.595 2027: 13.438 2028: 12.228 2029: 11.007 2030: 9.831 2031: 8.668 2032: 7.427 2033: 6.288 2034: 5.258 2035: 4.336 2036: 3.563 2037: 2.882 2038: 2.284 2039: 1.763 2040: 1.314 2041: 0.948 2042: 0.652 2043: 0.416 2044: 0.265 2045: 0.164 2046: 0.108 2047: 0.067 2048: 0.048 2049: 0.036 2050: 0.027 Solid fuel 2020: 0.283 2021: 0.277 2022: 0.265 2023: 0.251 2024: 0.237 2025: 0.225 2026: 0.208 2027: 0.189 2028: 0.167 2029: 0.154 2030: 0.141 2031: 0.130 2032: 0.118 2033: 0.107 2034: 0.097 2035: 0.086 2036: 0.077 2037: 0.067 2038: 0.057 2039: 0.046 2040: 0.036 2041: 0.026 2042: 0.016 2043: 0.006 2044: 0.005 2045: 0.004 2046: 0.004 2047: 0.004 2048: 0.003 2049: 0.003 2050: 0.003 Electricity 2020: 5.584 2021: 5.433 2022: 5.334 2023: 4.848 2024: 4.915 2025: 4.602 2026: 3.495 2027: 2.876 2028: 2.565 2029: 2.390 2030: 1.985 2031: 1.662 2032: 1.237 2033: 0.963 2034: 0.748 2035: 0.554 2036: 0.538 2037: 0.506 2038: 0.495 2039: 0.472 2040: 0.440 2041: 0.306 2042: 0.282 2043: 0.267 2044: 0.258 2045: 0.173 2046: 0.158 2047: 0.126 2048: 0.126 2049: 0.107 2050: 0.105 Total emissions 2020: 35.179 2021: 34.886 2022: 34.394 2023: 33.121 2024: 32.322 2025: 30.889 2026: 28.332 2027: 26.185 2028: 24.181 2029: 22.299 2030: 20.224 2031: 18.337 2032: 16.246 2033: 14.352 2034: 12.558 2035: 10.893 2036: 9.582 2037: 8.368 2038: 7.254 2039: 6.191 2040: 5.173 2041: 4.108 2042: 3.279 2043: 2.579 2044: 1.995 2045: 1.448 2046: 1.049 2047: 0.655 2048: 0.381 2049: 0.285 2050: 0.220

Low carbon technologies

Figure 4: Electric vehicle uptake forecast (#)
Scenario2020203020402050
Consumer transformation37328165534444312054086045
System transformation3732895162442261934133725
Steady progression3732874749635177634636643
Leading the way37328181238243637673160521
NPg Planning Scenario37328185110145967455021138
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 Number 2020 2030 2040 2050 Consumer transformation 2019: 26353 2020: 37328 2021: 74278 2022: 131596 2023: 203332 2024: 303722 2025: 436413 2026: 603754 2027: 805616 2028: 1046385 2029: 1331375 2030: 1655344 2031: 2034198 2032: 2435229 2033: 2835593 2034: 3213844 2035: 3548423 2036: 3830519 2037: 4054689 2038: 4223447 2039: 4347769 2040: 4431205 2041: 4462658 2042: 4460380 2043: 4447469 2044: 4425086 2045: 4393799 2046: 4353742 2047: 4303533 2048: 4244713 2049: 4171426 2050: 4086045 System transformation 2019: 26353 2020: 37328 2021: 58015 2022: 85178 2023: 122114 2024: 170653 2025: 234986 2026: 318999 2027: 427076 2028: 564934 2029: 738256 2030: 951624 2031: 1220735 2032: 1523686 2033: 1871251 2034: 2255453 2035: 2644902 2036: 3036877 2037: 3408369 2038: 3734852 2039: 4009521 2040: 4226193 2041: 4387647 2042: 4502783 2043: 4503922 2044: 4479049 2045: 4442678 2046: 4392217 2047: 4324916 2048: 4267504 2049: 4203068 2050: 4133725 Steady progression 2019: 26353 2020: 37328 2021: 57745 2022: 83805 2023: 116239 2024: 158885 2025: 213262 2026: 281557 2027: 365938 2028: 469787 2029: 596128 2030: 747496 2031: 930295 2032: 1129496 2033: 1356716 2034: 1610789 2035: 1888053 2036: 2207186 2037: 2542826 2038: 2884130 2039: 3222142 2040: 3517763 2041: 3784338 2042: 4018993 2043: 4217923 2044: 4382969 2045: 4506090 2046: 4538842 2047: 4567487 2048: 4592842 2049: 4615677 2050: 4636643 Leading the way 2019: 26353 2020: 37328 2021: 72016 2022: 124935 2023: 201814 2024: 301414 2025: 435065 2026: 607515 2027: 821021 2028: 1093022 2029: 1424698 2030: 1812382 2031: 2240703 2032: 2679791 2033: 3105675 2034: 3488656 2035: 3801724 2036: 4041478 2037: 4208832 2038: 4313677 2039: 4376483 2040: 4363767 2041: 4327009 2042: 4272531 2043: 4202514 2044: 4112528 2045: 4004466 2046: 3878557 2047: 3733090 2048: 3566248 2049: 3376065 2050: 3160521 NPg Planning Scenario 2019: 26353 2020: 37328 2021: 63649 2022: 116333 2023: 221493 2024: 358149 2025: 531397 2026: 723729 2027: 947174 2028: 1202124 2029: 1483417 2030: 1851101 2031: 2206223 2032: 2550564 2033: 2880984 2034: 3194069 2035: 3487300 2036: 3756887 2037: 4003149 2038: 4225037 2039: 4422951 2040: 4596745 2041: 4705938 2042: 4793704 2043: 4861803 2044: 4913437 2045: 4951683 2046: 4978310 2047: 4996803 2048: 5008685 2049: 5016402 2050: 5021138
Figure 5: Electric vehicle penetration of total car stock (%)
Scenario2020203020402050
NPg Planning Scenario0.83886.594.5
0 20 40 60 80 100 EVs (%) 2020 2030 2040 2050 NPg Planning Scenario 2020: 0.8 2021: 1.4 2022: 2.5 2023: 4.8 2024: 7.8 2025: 11.4 2026: 15.4 2027: 20 2028: 25.2 2029: 30.8 2030: 38 2031: 44.9 2032: 51.5 2033: 57.6 2034: 63.2 2035: 68.4 2036: 73.1 2037: 77.2 2038: 80.8 2039: 83.9 2040: 86.5 2041: 88.5 2042: 90.2 2043: 91.5 2044: 92.4 2045: 93.2 2046: 93.7 2047: 94 2048: 94.3 2049: 94.4 2050: 94.5
Figure 6: Total number of heat pumps
Scenario2020203020402050
Consumer transformation3159948597722594903221876
System transformation315991863437721181428566
Steady progression315992137547266221084341
Leading the way31599101095423976812710280
NPg Planning Scenario3146769303124112293570195
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 Number 2020 2030 2040 2050 Consumer transformation 2019: 27449 2020: 31599 2021: 39576 2022: 57167 2023: 76848 2024: 99830 2025: 126506 2026: 165108 2027: 211571 2028: 280407 2029: 372312 2030: 485977 2031: 640256 2032: 803924 2033: 965899 2034: 1126358 2035: 1285374 2036: 1522389 2037: 1711931 2038: 1899050 2039: 2080647 2040: 2259490 2041: 2449329 2042: 2615328 2043: 2753218 2044: 2865708 2045: 2952648 2046: 3024864 2047: 3078413 2048: 3125971 2049: 3173913 2050: 3221876 System transformation 2019: 27449 2020: 31599 2021: 32108 2022: 41501 2023: 51015 2024: 61124 2025: 71764 2026: 90798 2027: 111449 2028: 133758 2029: 158451 2030: 186343 2031: 228912 2032: 258032 2033: 293321 2034: 335191 2035: 383763 2036: 434981 2037: 524619 2038: 610922 2039: 693458 2040: 772118 2041: 872709 2042: 943114 2043: 1013535 2044: 1082875 2045: 1150242 2046: 1232143 2047: 1290057 2048: 1342472 2049: 1388667 2050: 1428566 Steady progression 2019: 27449 2020: 31599 2021: 35997 2022: 41895 2023: 47737 2024: 53507 2025: 59238 2026: 85365 2027: 113540 2028: 144233 2029: 177738 2030: 213754 2031: 255220 2032: 300788 2033: 346890 2034: 393619 2035: 440887 2036: 500869 2037: 555860 2038: 611853 2039: 668731 2040: 726622 2041: 778405 2042: 816565 2043: 853767 2044: 889259 2045: 924733 2046: 967839 2047: 996226 2048: 1025106 2049: 1054419 2050: 1084341 Leading the way 2019: 27449 2020: 31599 2021: 42030 2022: 95592 2023: 157356 2024: 228442 2025: 308921 2026: 415874 2027: 550477 2028: 702745 2029: 855486 2030: 1010954 2031: 1175365 2032: 1331821 2033: 1486595 2034: 1640469 2035: 1793202 2036: 1948759 2037: 2070783 2038: 2192811 2039: 2299856 2040: 2397681 2041: 2479326 2042: 2522381 2043: 2550429 2044: 2577323 2045: 2600412 2046: 2629107 2047: 2650201 2048: 2670980 2049: 2690986 2050: 2710280 NPg Planning Scenario 2019: 27449 2020: 31467 2021: 39084 2022: 55532 2023: 74862 2024: 95444 2025: 147258 2026: 217863 2027: 306612 2028: 420766 2029: 546905 2030: 693031 2031: 827247 2032: 970302 2033: 1131524 2034: 1307560 2035: 1497441 2036: 1678340 2037: 1857681 2038: 2040879 2039: 2231294 2040: 2411229 2041: 2600240 2042: 2772725 2043: 2926563 2044: 3060656 2045: 3183626 2046: 3296543 2047: 3410687 2048: 3525013 2049: 3553422 2050: 3570195
Figure 7: Battery storage capacity installed (GW)
Scenario2020203020402050
Consumer transformation0.1720.7441.5822.388
System transformation0.1720.4310.8041.070
Steady progression0.1720.3630.8591.009
Leading the way0.1720.6071.5942.398
NPg Planning Scenario0.1720.6071.5942.398
0 1 2 Installed capacity (GW) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Consumer transformation 2019: 0.170 2020: 0.172 2021: 0.282 2022: 0.393 2023: 0.505 2024: 0.514 2025: 0.527 2026: 0.600 2027: 0.620 2028: 0.643 2029: 0.664 2030: 0.744 2031: 0.771 2032: 0.896 2033: 0.934 2034: 0.972 2035: 1.091 2036: 1.137 2037: 1.225 2038: 1.320 2039: 1.495 2040: 1.582 2041: 1.707 2042: 1.811 2043: 1.866 2044: 1.921 2045: 1.978 2046: 2.080 2047: 2.141 2048: 2.205 2049: 2.320 2050: 2.388 System transformation 2019: 0.170 2020: 0.172 2021: 0.235 2022: 0.298 2023: 0.361 2024: 0.364 2025: 0.368 2026: 0.405 2027: 0.410 2028: 0.417 2029: 0.423 2030: 0.431 2031: 0.438 2032: 0.446 2033: 0.457 2034: 0.537 2035: 0.597 2036: 0.615 2037: 0.667 2038: 0.682 2039: 0.742 2040: 0.804 2041: 0.819 2042: 0.910 2043: 0.924 2044: 0.977 2045: 0.991 2046: 1.006 2047: 1.021 2048: 1.037 2049: 1.053 2050: 1.070 Steady progression 2019: 0.170 2020: 0.172 2021: 0.189 2022: 0.206 2023: 0.223 2024: 0.248 2025: 0.252 2026: 0.272 2027: 0.347 2028: 0.353 2029: 0.357 2030: 0.363 2031: 0.369 2032: 0.417 2033: 0.662 2034: 0.670 2035: 0.770 2036: 0.780 2037: 0.791 2038: 0.841 2039: 0.851 2040: 0.859 2041: 0.868 2042: 0.875 2043: 0.882 2044: 0.889 2045: 0.896 2046: 0.944 2047: 0.951 2048: 0.958 2049: 1.002 2050: 1.009 Leading the way 2019: 0.170 2020: 0.172 2021: 0.237 2022: 0.303 2023: 0.370 2024: 0.380 2025: 0.393 2026: 0.444 2027: 0.530 2028: 0.556 2029: 0.580 2030: 0.607 2031: 0.638 2032: 0.772 2033: 1.092 2034: 1.134 2035: 1.221 2036: 1.271 2037: 1.325 2038: 1.456 2039: 1.537 2040: 1.594 2041: 1.656 2042: 1.742 2043: 1.805 2044: 1.870 2045: 1.936 2046: 2.045 2047: 2.117 2048: 2.191 2049: 2.317 2050: 2.398 NPg Planning Scenario 2019: 0.170 2020: 0.172 2021: 0.237 2022: 0.303 2023: 0.370 2024: 0.380 2025: 0.393 2026: 0.444 2027: 0.530 2028: 0.556 2029: 0.580 2030: 0.607 2031: 0.638 2032: 0.772 2033: 1.092 2034: 1.134 2035: 1.221 2036: 1.271 2037: 1.325 2038: 1.456 2039: 1.537 2040: 1.594 2041: 1.656 2042: 1.742 2043: 1.805 2044: 1.870 2045: 1.936 2046: 2.045 2047: 2.117 2048: 2.191 2049: 2.317 2050: 2.398
Figure 8: Renewable generation installed (GW)
Scenario2020203020402050
Consumer transformation2.9396.43710.29714.084
System transformation2.9395.3637.0198.662
Steady progression2.9393.7774.5005.166
Leading the way2.9398.20011.81915.064
NPg Planning Scenario2.9398.20011.81915.064
0 5 10 15 Renewable generation (GW) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Consumer transformation 2019: 2.930 2020: 2.939 2021: 3.206 2022: 3.486 2023: 3.777 2024: 3.989 2025: 4.309 2026: 4.672 2027: 5.048 2028: 5.470 2029: 5.917 2030: 6.437 2031: 6.817 2032: 7.210 2033: 7.600 2034: 8.021 2035: 8.412 2036: 8.754 2037: 9.093 2038: 9.457 2039: 9.873 2040: 10.297 2041: 10.718 2042: 11.138 2043: 11.558 2044: 11.963 2045: 12.368 2046: 12.767 2047: 13.170 2048: 13.610 2049: 13.874 2050: 14.084 System transformation 2019: 2.930 2020: 2.939 2021: 3.193 2022: 3.452 2023: 3.712 2024: 3.870 2025: 4.060 2026: 4.265 2027: 4.486 2028: 4.740 2029: 5.013 2030: 5.363 2031: 5.559 2032: 5.761 2033: 5.951 2034: 6.165 2035: 6.340 2036: 6.457 2037: 6.561 2038: 6.682 2039: 6.850 2040: 7.019 2041: 7.188 2042: 7.357 2043: 7.526 2044: 7.684 2045: 7.843 2046: 8.003 2047: 8.163 2048: 8.325 2049: 8.487 2050: 8.662 Steady progression 2019: 2.930 2020: 2.939 2021: 3.065 2022: 3.187 2023: 3.309 2024: 3.350 2025: 3.394 2026: 3.439 2027: 3.502 2028: 3.575 2029: 3.662 2030: 3.777 2031: 3.863 2032: 3.959 2033: 4.053 2034: 4.166 2035: 4.254 2036: 4.294 2037: 4.334 2038: 4.374 2039: 4.434 2040: 4.500 2041: 4.567 2042: 4.633 2043: 4.700 2044: 4.766 2045: 4.833 2046: 4.899 2047: 4.966 2048: 5.033 2049: 5.099 2050: 5.166 Leading the way 2019: 2.930 2020: 2.939 2021: 3.334 2022: 3.741 2023: 4.160 2024: 4.630 2025: 5.186 2026: 5.786 2027: 6.390 2028: 6.996 2029: 7.590 2030: 8.200 2031: 8.582 2032: 8.981 2033: 9.374 2034: 9.776 2035: 10.130 2036: 10.435 2037: 10.714 2038: 11.033 2039: 11.401 2040: 11.819 2041: 12.233 2042: 12.665 2043: 13.069 2044: 13.428 2045: 13.755 2046: 14.062 2047: 14.374 2048: 14.691 2049: 14.906 2050: 15.064 NPg Planning Scenario 2019: 2.930 2020: 2.939 2021: 3.334 2022: 3.741 2023: 4.160 2024: 4.630 2025: 5.186 2026: 5.786 2027: 6.390 2028: 6.996 2029: 7.590 2030: 8.200 2031: 8.582 2032: 8.981 2033: 9.374 2034: 9.776 2035: 10.130 2036: 10.435 2037: 10.714 2038: 11.033 2039: 11.401 2040: 11.819 2041: 12.233 2042: 12.665 2043: 13.069 2044: 13.428 2045: 13.755 2046: 14.062 2047: 14.374 2048: 14.691 2049: 14.906 2050: 15.064
Figure 9: Electric bus and HGV uptake forecast (#)
Scenario2020203020402050
Consumer transformation19759262301843422
System transformation19732041368826438
Steady progression1971240376310270
Leading the way19739051667829413
NPg Planning Scenario32180827833790077
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 Number 2020 2030 2040 2050 Consumer transformation 2020: 197 2021: 545 2022: 876 2023: 1270 2024: 1730 2025: 2257 2026: 2833 2027: 3476 2028: 4189 2029: 5004 2030: 5926 2031: 6977 2032: 8162 2033: 9507 2034: 11005 2035: 12666 2036: 14486 2037: 16448 2038: 18549 2039: 20747 2040: 23018 2041: 25340 2042: 27694 2043: 30030 2044: 32386 2045: 34704 2046: 36956 2047: 39201 2048: 40844 2049: 42176 2050: 43422 System transformation 2020: 197 2021: 330 2022: 487 2023: 685 2024: 910 2025: 1173 2026: 1476 2027: 1828 2028: 2233 2029: 2686 2030: 3204 2031: 3816 2032: 4467 2033: 5204 2034: 6049 2035: 7007 2036: 8083 2037: 9289 2038: 10629 2039: 12102 2040: 13688 2041: 15384 2042: 17172 2043: 19014 2044: 20898 2045: 22801 2046: 24672 2047: 26051 2048: 26672 2049: 26791 2050: 26438 Steady progression 2020: 197 2021: 213 2022: 290 2023: 375 2024: 476 2025: 577 2026: 690 2027: 808 2028: 946 2029: 1088 2030: 1240 2031: 1410 2032: 1578 2033: 1759 2034: 1966 2035: 2192 2036: 2441 2037: 2725 2038: 3033 2039: 3374 2040: 3763 2041: 4186 2042: 4662 2043: 5188 2044: 5760 2045: 6386 2046: 7071 2047: 7807 2048: 8588 2049: 9415 2050: 10270 Leading the way 2020: 197 2021: 368 2022: 576 2023: 817 2024: 1106 2025: 1439 2026: 1813 2027: 2231 2028: 2709 2029: 3260 2030: 3905 2031: 4648 2032: 5504 2033: 6488 2034: 7600 2035: 8842 2036: 10213 2037: 11701 2038: 13298 2039: 14967 2040: 16678 2041: 18422 2042: 20180 2043: 21899 2044: 23623 2045: 25311 2046: 26933 2047: 28559 2048: 29559 2049: 29643 2050: 29413 NPg Planning Scenario 2020: 32 2021: 189 2022: 475 2023: 875 2024: 1398 2025: 2041 2026: 3553 2027: 5907 2028: 9118 2029: 13177 2030: 18082 2031: 23811 2032: 29946 2033: 36471 2034: 43360 2035: 50598 2036: 57286 2037: 63424 2038: 69010 2039: 73984 2040: 78337 2041: 81809 2042: 84562 2043: 86611 2044: 87985 2045: 88688 2046: 89089 2047: 89407 2048: 89638 2049: 89860 2050: 90077

Network data

Figure 10: Annual peak demand (GW)
Scenario2020203020402050
Consumer transformation6435.6576838.7149859.68910639.019
System transformation6450.9366716.4649565.29010682.288
Steady progression6450.9367095.3449462.63810996.364
Leading the way6435.6576808.2589484.0479601.534
NPg Planning Scenario6419.5187535.86010922.73012389.359
NPg Planning Scenario without customer flexibility - - -6421.8947805.64911606.14713097.735
0 5,000 10,000 Annual peak demand (GW) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Consumer transformation 2019: 6451.295 2020: 6435.657 2021: 6323.062 2022: 6144.787 2023: 6071.748 2024: 6078.672 2025: 6114.350 2026: 6195.540 2027: 6303.175 2028: 6443.869 2029: 6617.271 2030: 6838.714 2031: 7156.736 2032: 7485.208 2033: 7815.813 2034: 8147.736 2035: 8473.614 2036: 8848.371 2037: 9147.964 2038: 9419.078 2039: 9654.365 2040: 9859.689 2041: 10045.127 2042: 10185.407 2043: 10291.379 2044: 10373.663 2045: 10432.982 2046: 10482.667 2047: 10535.277 2048: 10575.166 2049: 10609.975 2050: 10639.019 System transformation 2019: 6464.369 2020: 6450.936 2021: 6365.893 2022: 6281.173 2023: 6219.704 2024: 6189.982 2025: 6191.367 2026: 6248.851 2027: 6334.205 2028: 6439.442 2029: 6566.080 2030: 6716.464 2031: 6936.385 2032: 7153.606 2033: 7407.170 2034: 7690.248 2035: 7992.380 2036: 8319.238 2037: 8678.504 2038: 9008.162 2039: 9303.913 2040: 9565.290 2041: 9833.375 2042: 10017.273 2043: 10143.447 2044: 10246.077 2045: 10339.885 2046: 10454.113 2047: 10522.294 2048: 10587.200 2049: 10640.209 2050: 10682.288 Steady progression 2019: 6464.369 2020: 6450.936 2021: 6451.750 2022: 6554.428 2023: 6605.703 2024: 6646.312 2025: 6681.482 2026: 6722.905 2027: 6781.911 2028: 6863.428 2029: 6965.748 2030: 7095.344 2031: 7253.749 2032: 7425.361 2033: 7613.762 2034: 7818.176 2035: 8037.422 2036: 8312.727 2037: 8593.485 2038: 8885.627 2039: 9179.186 2040: 9462.638 2041: 9728.696 2042: 9954.428 2043: 10158.844 2044: 10340.618 2045: 10498.458 2046: 10624.167 2047: 10719.808 2048: 10813.216 2049: 10904.826 2050: 10996.364 Leading the way 2019: 6451.295 2020: 6435.657 2021: 6286.552 2022: 6054.563 2023: 5926.442 2024: 5901.495 2025: 5914.397 2026: 5983.423 2027: 6122.141 2028: 6326.334 2029: 6549.725 2030: 6808.258 2031: 7167.753 2032: 7542.350 2033: 7913.931 2034: 8267.441 2035: 8580.089 2036: 8856.899 2037: 9070.007 2038: 9252.690 2039: 9391.938 2040: 9484.047 2041: 9545.780 2042: 9559.851 2043: 9563.535 2044: 9586.705 2045: 9606.560 2046: 9629.285 2047: 9632.422 2048: 9628.274 2049: 9618.435 2050: 9601.534 NPg Planning Scenario 2019: 6450.011 2020: 6419.518 2021: 6282.917 2022: 6247.680 2023: 6267.347 2024: 6318.588 2025: 6402.069 2026: 6523.651 2027: 6688.591 2028: 6902.513 2029: 7173.191 2030: 7535.860 2031: 7855.838 2032: 8166.053 2033: 8524.570 2034: 8880.325 2035: 9289.285 2036: 9674.267 2037: 10016.167 2038: 10350.177 2039: 10662.491 2040: 10922.730 2041: 11148.339 2042: 11364.194 2043: 11567.075 2044: 11741.229 2045: 11903.944 2046: 12056.673 2047: 12210.300 2048: 12358.084 2049: 12380.248 2050: 12389.359 NPg Planning Scenario without customer flexibility 2019: 6451.157 2020: 6421.894 2021: 6288.552 2022: 6259.171 2023: 6286.506 2024: 6350.842 2025: 6455.342 2026: 6601.233 2027: 6798.929 2028: 7060.205 2029: 7382.019 2030: 7805.649 2031: 8185.540 2032: 8549.774 2033: 8952.283 2034: 9350.971 2035: 9815.468 2036: 10250.830 2037: 10629.718 2038: 10992.131 2039: 11326.808 2040: 11606.147 2041: 11843.420 2042: 12068.123 2043: 12277.025 2044: 12455.231 2045: 12619.813 2046: 12772.580 2047: 12925.406 2048: 13071.483 2049: 13091.250 2050: 13097.735
Figure 11: Network peak demand breakdown — Planning Scenario (GW)
Scenario2020203020402050
Domestic2.696 2.517 2.541 2.633
I & C3.637 3.363 3.219 3.146
Heat pumps - domestic0.021 0.596 2.207 3.117
Heat pumps - I & C0.046 0.137 0.424 0.782
EV0.021 1.056 2.700 2.808
0 1 2 3 Annual gross peak demand (GW) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Domestic 2020: 2.696 2021: 2.579 2022: 2.547 2023: 2.528 2024: 2.516 2025: 2.504 2026: 2.497 2027: 2.501 2028: 2.506 2029: 2.512 2030: 2.517 2031: 2.518 2032: 2.519 2033: 2.519 2034: 2.519 2035: 2.519 2036: 2.521 2037: 2.526 2038: 2.531 2039: 2.535 2040: 2.541 2041: 2.548 2042: 2.555 2043: 2.562 2044: 2.569 2045: 2.576 2046: 2.583 2047: 2.592 2048: 2.604 2049: 2.616 2050: 2.633 I & C 2020: 3.637 2021: 3.602 2022: 3.569 2023: 3.538 2024: 3.509 2025: 3.481 2026: 3.454 2027: 3.430 2028: 3.406 2029: 3.384 2030: 3.363 2031: 3.344 2032: 3.326 2033: 3.309 2034: 3.293 2035: 3.278 2036: 3.265 2037: 3.252 2038: 3.240 2039: 3.229 2040: 3.219 2041: 3.210 2042: 3.201 2043: 3.193 2044: 3.185 2045: 3.178 2046: 3.171 2047: 3.164 2048: 3.158 2049: 3.152 2050: 3.146 Heat pumps - domestic 2020: 0.021 2021: 0.026 2022: 0.032 2023: 0.040 2024: 0.049 2025: 0.079 2026: 0.129 2027: 0.197 2028: 0.296 2029: 0.427 2030: 0.596 2031: 0.735 2032: 0.873 2033: 1.042 2034: 1.216 2035: 1.396 2036: 1.569 2037: 1.739 2038: 1.908 2039: 2.075 2040: 2.207 2041: 2.336 2042: 2.466 2043: 2.594 2044: 2.703 2045: 2.810 2046: 2.915 2047: 3.024 2048: 3.129 2049: 3.125 2050: 3.117 Heat pumps - I & C 2020: 0.046 2021: 0.046 2022: 0.046 2023: 0.050 2024: 0.058 2025: 0.066 2026: 0.076 2027: 0.087 2028: 0.098 2029: 0.117 2030: 0.137 2031: 0.162 2032: 0.182 2033: 0.207 2034: 0.230 2035: 0.254 2036: 0.278 2037: 0.310 2038: 0.347 2039: 0.388 2040: 0.424 2041: 0.458 2042: 0.496 2043: 0.536 2044: 0.576 2045: 0.618 2046: 0.661 2047: 0.704 2048: 0.743 2049: 0.769 2050: 0.782 EV 2020: 0.021 2021: 0.034 2022: 0.061 2023: 0.124 2024: 0.210 2025: 0.311 2026: 0.418 2027: 0.540 2028: 0.685 2029: 0.844 2030: 1.056 2031: 1.250 2032: 1.432 2033: 1.618 2034: 1.795 2035: 2.031 2036: 2.241 2037: 2.386 2038: 2.514 2039: 2.614 2040: 2.700 2041: 2.752 2042: 2.792 2043: 2.819 2044: 2.837 2045: 2.845 2046: 2.845 2047: 2.841 2048: 2.833 2049: 2.821 2050: 2.808
Figure 12: Network energy consumption breakdown — Planning Scenario (TWh)
Scenario2020203020402050
Domestic12.644 11.806 11.919 12.352
I & C23.696 21.915 20.973 20.498
Heat pumps - domestic0.092 2.762 10.791 15.451
Heat pumps - I & C0.161 0.512 1.663 3.117
EV0.097 4.884 12.279 12.719
0 5 10 15 20 Network energy consumption (TWh) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Domestic 2020: 12.644 2021: 12.095 2022: 11.945 2023: 11.854 2024: 11.801 2025: 11.745 2026: 11.711 2027: 11.729 2028: 11.755 2029: 11.780 2030: 11.806 2031: 11.811 2032: 11.816 2033: 11.817 2034: 11.815 2035: 11.816 2036: 11.826 2037: 11.847 2038: 11.874 2039: 11.894 2040: 11.919 2041: 11.953 2042: 11.986 2043: 12.019 2044: 12.052 2045: 12.086 2046: 12.119 2047: 12.161 2048: 12.216 2049: 12.272 2050: 12.352 I & C 2020: 23.696 2021: 23.470 2022: 23.255 2023: 23.053 2024: 22.861 2025: 22.679 2026: 22.508 2027: 22.346 2028: 22.193 2029: 22.050 2030: 21.915 2031: 21.788 2032: 21.670 2033: 21.559 2034: 21.456 2035: 21.360 2036: 21.271 2037: 21.188 2038: 21.111 2039: 21.039 2040: 20.973 2041: 20.911 2042: 20.854 2043: 20.800 2044: 20.750 2045: 20.703 2046: 20.659 2047: 20.617 2048: 20.576 2049: 20.537 2050: 20.498 Heat pumps - domestic 2020: 0.092 2021: 0.114 2022: 0.160 2023: 0.213 2024: 0.270 2025: 0.413 2026: 0.651 2027: 0.971 2028: 1.427 2029: 1.999 2030: 2.762 2031: 3.387 2032: 4.052 2033: 4.830 2034: 5.658 2035: 6.589 2036: 7.455 2037: 8.292 2038: 9.143 2039: 9.999 2040: 10.791 2041: 11.587 2042: 12.321 2043: 12.975 2044: 13.541 2045: 14.057 2046: 14.530 2047: 15.018 2048: 15.493 2049: 15.496 2050: 15.451 Heat pumps - I & C 2020: 0.161 2021: 0.170 2022: 0.181 2023: 0.202 2024: 0.229 2025: 0.261 2026: 0.296 2027: 0.333 2028: 0.372 2029: 0.436 2030: 0.512 2031: 0.601 2032: 0.682 2033: 0.773 2034: 0.867 2035: 0.963 2036: 1.061 2037: 1.189 2038: 1.337 2039: 1.505 2040: 1.663 2041: 1.822 2042: 1.985 2043: 2.150 2044: 2.314 2045: 2.480 2046: 2.647 2047: 2.808 2048: 2.960 2049: 3.067 2050: 3.117 EV 2020: 0.097 2021: 0.156 2022: 0.280 2023: 0.572 2024: 0.970 2025: 1.441 2026: 1.938 2027: 2.502 2028: 3.171 2029: 3.906 2030: 4.884 2031: 5.779 2032: 6.610 2033: 7.454 2034: 8.255 2035: 9.319 2036: 10.255 2037: 10.897 2038: 11.458 2039: 11.900 2040: 12.279 2041: 12.506 2042: 12.678 2043: 12.795 2044: 12.873 2045: 12.907 2046: 12.904 2047: 12.882 2048: 12.840 2049: 12.783 2050: 12.719
Figure 13: Annual network energy consumption (TWh)
Scenario2020203020402050
Consumer transformation36.76838.34954.17758.941
System transformation36.76837.30148.97052.716
Steady progression36.76839.55648.93754.871
Leading the way36.76838.15051.99852.914
NPg Planning Scenario36.69543.85164.98472.879
0 20 40 60 Energy consumption (TWh) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Consumer transformation 2019: 36.894 2020: 36.768 2021: 36.189 2022: 35.314 2023: 34.934 2024: 34.926 2025: 35.053 2026: 35.393 2027: 35.859 2028: 36.493 2029: 37.304 2030: 38.349 2031: 39.941 2032: 41.642 2033: 43.351 2034: 45.060 2035: 46.730 2036: 48.688 2037: 50.270 2038: 51.724 2039: 53.018 2040: 54.177 2041: 55.252 2042: 56.105 2043: 56.786 2044: 57.338 2045: 57.762 2046: 58.105 2047: 58.375 2048: 58.585 2049: 58.773 2050: 58.941 System transformation 2019: 36.894 2020: 36.768 2021: 36.347 2022: 35.899 2023: 35.560 2024: 35.370 2025: 35.323 2026: 35.510 2027: 35.818 2028: 36.215 2029: 36.706 2030: 37.301 2031: 38.208 2032: 39.138 2033: 40.219 2034: 41.422 2035: 42.694 2036: 44.064 2037: 45.492 2038: 46.799 2039: 47.960 2040: 48.970 2041: 49.954 2042: 50.650 2043: 51.081 2044: 51.419 2045: 51.725 2046: 52.080 2047: 52.284 2048: 52.477 2049: 52.619 2050: 52.716 Steady progression 2019: 36.894 2020: 36.768 2021: 36.788 2022: 37.279 2023: 37.531 2024: 37.732 2025: 37.908 2026: 38.053 2027: 38.280 2028: 38.606 2029: 39.020 2030: 39.556 2031: 40.169 2032: 40.835 2033: 41.580 2034: 42.397 2035: 43.280 2036: 44.359 2037: 45.478 2038: 46.647 2039: 47.819 2040: 48.937 2041: 49.985 2042: 50.894 2043: 51.710 2044: 52.432 2045: 53.046 2046: 53.488 2047: 53.844 2048: 54.190 2049: 54.530 2050: 54.871 Leading the way 2019: 36.894 2020: 36.768 2021: 35.988 2022: 34.847 2023: 34.190 2024: 34.014 2025: 34.014 2026: 34.285 2027: 34.881 2028: 35.795 2029: 36.883 2030: 38.150 2031: 40.001 2032: 41.893 2033: 43.769 2034: 45.560 2035: 47.170 2036: 48.608 2037: 49.706 2038: 50.669 2039: 51.441 2040: 51.998 2041: 52.425 2042: 52.611 2043: 52.717 2044: 52.833 2045: 52.918 2046: 53.014 2047: 53.050 2048: 53.051 2049: 53.001 2050: 52.914 NPg Planning Scenario 2019: 36.899 2020: 36.695 2021: 36.029 2022: 35.879 2023: 35.999 2024: 36.297 2025: 36.779 2026: 37.517 2027: 38.558 2028: 39.946 2029: 41.631 2030: 43.851 2031: 45.917 2032: 47.957 2033: 50.132 2034: 52.310 2035: 54.857 2036: 57.267 2037: 59.365 2038: 61.387 2039: 63.270 2040: 64.984 2041: 66.480 2042: 67.804 2043: 68.940 2044: 69.895 2045: 70.704 2046: 71.393 2047: 72.076 2048: 72.728 2049: 72.847 2050: 72.879
Figure 14: Network annual fuel consumption breakdown — Planning Scenario (GWh-yr)
Scenario2020203020402050
Natural gas54394402781635785
Hydrogen213320193948
Bioenergy36862180965606
Petrol75095405365335106
Solid fuel8334151069
Electricity36463439166505072949
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 Fuel consumption (GWh-yr) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Natural gas 2020: 54394 2021: 53762 2022: 53133 2023: 52328 2024: 51489 2025: 50319 2026: 48890 2027: 47182 2028: 44942 2029: 42644 2030: 40278 2031: 38380 2032: 36353 2033: 34046 2034: 31416 2035: 28776 2036: 26268 2037: 23862 2038: 21438 2039: 18942 2040: 16357 2041: 13613 2042: 11150 2043: 8978 2044: 6891 2045: 5109 2046: 3496 2047: 1917 2048: 665 2049: 349 2050: 85 Hydrogen 2020: 2 2021: 6 2022: 9 2023: 10 2024: 13 2025: 16 2026: 18 2027: 22 2028: 27 2029: 32 2030: 133 2031: 238 2032: 346 2033: 487 2034: 645 2035: 829 2036: 1032 2037: 1223 2038: 1436 2039: 1674 2040: 2019 2041: 2453 2042: 2830 2043: 3094 2044: 3374 2045: 3566 2046: 3682 2047: 3791 2048: 3867 2049: 3944 2050: 3948 Bioenergy 2020: 3686 2021: 3637 2022: 3513 2023: 3378 2024: 3239 2025: 3108 2026: 2929 2027: 2723 2028: 2501 2029: 2339 2030: 2180 2031: 2055 2032: 1931 2033: 1814 2034: 1683 2035: 1505 2036: 1399 2037: 1293 2038: 1186 2039: 1076 2040: 965 2041: 855 2042: 744 2043: 640 2044: 624 2045: 617 2046: 615 2047: 612 2048: 610 2049: 608 2050: 606 Petrol 2020: 75095 2021: 75081 2022: 74044 2023: 71499 2024: 68656 2025: 65027 2026: 60284 2027: 55483 2028: 50471 2029: 45404 2030: 40536 2031: 35708 2032: 30555 2033: 25834 2034: 21571 2035: 17761 2036: 14571 2037: 11765 2038: 9307 2039: 7172 2040: 5335 2041: 3845 2042: 2645 2043: 1694 2044: 1077 2045: 668 2046: 439 2047: 272 2048: 195 2049: 142 2050: 106 Solid fuel 2020: 833 2021: 815 2022: 779 2023: 738 2024: 697 2025: 661 2026: 613 2027: 555 2028: 492 2029: 453 2030: 415 2031: 381 2032: 347 2033: 316 2034: 284 2035: 254 2036: 225 2037: 196 2038: 167 2039: 137 2040: 106 2041: 76 2042: 46 2043: 17 2044: 14 2045: 13 2046: 12 2047: 11 2048: 10 2049: 9 2050: 9 Electricity 2020: 36463 2021: 36094 2022: 35944 2023: 36062 2024: 36359 2025: 36840 2026: 37577 2027: 38620 2028: 40009 2029: 41694 2030: 43916 2031: 45982 2032: 48022 2033: 50197 2034: 52375 2035: 54922 2036: 57333 2037: 59431 2038: 61453 2039: 63336 2040: 65050 2041: 66546 2042: 67871 2043: 69007 2044: 69963 2045: 70772 2046: 71461 2047: 72145 2048: 72797 2049: 72917 2050: 72949
Figure 15: Additional industrial peak demand breakdown — Planning Scenario (MW)
Scenario2020203020402050
Electric HGVs0.217 118.275 463.484 548.453
Electric Buses0.101 17.287 51.562 62.494
Electrolysers0.000 0.455 12.796 12.995
Large industry Fuel Switching0.000 207.499 459.672 660.720
0 200 400 600 Peak demand (MW) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Electric HGVs 2020: 0.217 2021: 1.027 2022: 2.431 2023: 4.428 2024: 7.019 2025: 10.203 2026: 20.040 2027: 36.057 2028: 57.962 2029: 85.465 2030: 118.275 2031: 156.041 2032: 193.398 2033: 230.308 2034: 266.735 2035: 302.638 2036: 340.147 2037: 374.988 2038: 407.158 2039: 436.658 2040: 463.484 2041: 484.726 2042: 502.172 2043: 515.823 2044: 525.679 2045: 531.741 2046: 535.100 2047: 538.450 2048: 541.792 2049: 545.127 2050: 548.453 Electric Buses 2020: 0.101 2021: 0.469 2022: 1.103 2023: 2.003 2024: 3.170 2025: 4.603 2026: 6.386 2027: 8.578 2028: 11.147 2029: 14.060 2030: 17.287 2031: 20.615 2032: 24.032 2033: 27.447 2034: 30.731 2035: 33.893 2036: 37.828 2037: 41.633 2038: 45.309 2039: 48.619 2040: 51.562 2041: 54.080 2042: 56.170 2043: 57.833 2044: 59.225 2045: 60.344 2046: 61.193 2047: 61.769 2048: 62.072 2049: 62.313 2050: 62.494 Electrolysers 2020: 0.000 2021: 0.000 2022: 0.000 2023: 0.000 2024: 0.000 2025: 0.000 2026: 0.094 2027: 0.173 2028: 0.227 2029: 0.262 2030: 0.455 2031: 1.021 2032: 1.974 2033: 3.281 2034: 4.895 2035: 6.093 2036: 7.581 2037: 9.062 2038: 10.424 2039: 11.642 2040: 12.796 2041: 13.624 2042: 14.119 2043: 14.350 2044: 14.370 2045: 14.236 2046: 13.944 2047: 13.655 2048: 13.379 2049: 13.155 2050: 12.995 Large industry Fuel Switching 2020: 0.000 2021: 15.285 2022: 30.570 2023: 45.855 2024: 61.140 2025: 76.426 2026: 102.640 2027: 128.855 2028: 155.069 2029: 181.284 2030: 207.499 2031: 230.555 2032: 253.611 2033: 276.668 2034: 299.724 2035: 322.780 2036: 350.159 2037: 377.537 2038: 404.916 2039: 432.294 2040: 459.672 2041: 499.882 2042: 540.091 2043: 580.301 2044: 620.511 2045: 660.720 2046: 660.720 2047: 660.720 2048: 660.720 2049: 660.720 2050: 660.720
Figure 16: Additional industrial energy consumption breakdown — Planning Scenario (GWh)
Scenario2020203020402050
Electric HGVs2.8931576.8906179.3347312.166
Electric Buses2.314395.3801179.3071429.327
Electrolysers0.0003.990112.089113.838
Large industry Fuel Switching0.0001817.6894026.7295787.908
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 Energy consumption (GWh) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Electric HGVs 2020: 2.893 2021: 13.697 2022: 32.413 2023: 59.040 2024: 93.579 2025: 136.029 2026: 267.186 2027: 480.723 2028: 772.769 2029: 1139.449 2030: 1576.890 2031: 2080.393 2032: 2578.449 2033: 3070.554 2034: 3556.201 2035: 4034.880 2036: 4534.961 2037: 4999.469 2038: 5428.380 2039: 5821.676 2040: 6179.334 2041: 6462.546 2042: 6695.143 2043: 6877.137 2044: 7008.539 2045: 7089.361 2046: 7134.140 2047: 7178.809 2048: 7223.370 2049: 7267.822 2050: 7312.166 Electric Buses 2020: 2.314 2021: 10.722 2022: 25.222 2023: 45.816 2024: 72.503 2025: 105.282 2026: 146.062 2027: 196.190 2028: 254.938 2029: 321.578 2030: 395.380 2031: 471.506 2032: 549.648 2033: 627.745 2034: 702.853 2035: 775.183 2036: 865.180 2037: 952.213 2038: 1036.278 2039: 1111.978 2040: 1179.307 2041: 1236.877 2042: 1284.685 2043: 1322.730 2044: 1354.557 2045: 1380.163 2046: 1399.572 2047: 1412.742 2048: 1419.668 2049: 1425.194 2050: 1429.327 Electrolysers 2020: 0.000 2021: 0.000 2022: 0.000 2023: 0.000 2024: 0.000 2025: 0.000 2026: 0.824 2027: 1.517 2028: 1.988 2029: 2.295 2030: 3.990 2031: 8.942 2032: 17.293 2033: 28.744 2034: 42.883 2035: 53.371 2036: 66.407 2037: 79.383 2038: 91.311 2039: 101.981 2040: 112.089 2041: 119.343 2042: 123.680 2043: 125.704 2044: 125.880 2045: 124.708 2046: 122.145 2047: 119.620 2048: 117.198 2049: 115.242 2050: 113.838 Large industry Fuel Switching 2020: 0.000 2021: 133.898 2022: 267.795 2023: 401.693 2024: 535.590 2025: 669.488 2026: 899.128 2027: 1128.768 2028: 1358.408 2029: 1588.048 2030: 1817.689 2031: 2019.662 2032: 2221.636 2033: 2423.609 2034: 2625.582 2035: 2827.556 2036: 3067.390 2037: 3307.225 2038: 3547.060 2039: 3786.894 2040: 4026.729 2041: 4378.965 2042: 4731.201 2043: 5083.437 2044: 5435.672 2045: 5787.908 2046: 5787.908 2047: 5787.908 2048: 5787.908 2049: 5787.908 2050: 5787.908

About this visualisation

These figures have been created to show some of the parameters calculated in Northern Powergrid's 2021 DFES.