The following graphs are supplemental to Northern Powergrid's DFES 2022 interactive map . Each graph can be downloaded as a scalable-vector-graphic (SVG). The underlying data for each graph is also available as a CSV file.
Emissions
Figure 1: Annual carbon emissions (MtCO2 )
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 NPg Planning scenario 20.22364966 5.173389698 0.219863684
0
10
20
30
Mt CO2(e)
2030
2040
2050
NPg Planning scenario 2021: 34.88623733 2022: 34.39444922 2023: 33.12113949 2024: 32.3219204 2025: 30.88868177 2026: 28.33214507 2027: 26.18467277 2028: 24.18075712 2029: 22.29941961 2030: 20.22364966 2031: 18.33698608 2032: 16.24639693 2033: 14.35157228 2034: 12.55832502 2035: 10.89264661 2036: 9.582072095 2037: 8.367612352 2038: 7.254486171 2039: 6.191408758 2040: 5.173389698 2041: 4.108110367 2042: 3.279335993 2043: 2.579018768 2044: 1.995023632 2045: 1.448057442 2046: 1.049046159 2047: 0.654529489 2048: 0.380736615 2049: 0.285127765 2050: 0.219863684
Figure 2: Cumulative carbon emissions (MtCO2 )
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 NPg Planning Scenario 322.012292 430.967188 446.9660379
0
100
200
300
400
Cumulative emissions (MtCO2)
2030
2040
2050
NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 70.06545692 2022: 104.4599061 2023: 137.5810456 2024: 169.902966 2025: 200.7916478 2026: 229.1237929 2027: 255.3084656 2028: 279.4892228 2029: 301.7886424 2030: 322.012292 2031: 340.3492781 2032: 356.595675 2033: 370.9472473 2034: 383.5055723 2035: 394.3982189 2036: 403.980291 2037: 412.3479034 2038: 419.6023896 2039: 425.7937983 2040: 430.967188 2041: 435.0752984 2042: 438.3546344 2043: 440.9336532 2044: 442.9286768 2045: 444.3767342 2046: 445.4257804 2047: 446.0803099 2048: 446.4610465 2049: 446.7461743 2050: 446.9660379
Figure 3: Network annual carbon emission breakdown - Planning Scenario (MtCO2 )
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Natural gas 8.228017237 3.341506343 0.017288933 Hydrogen 0.00396029 0.026808637 0.057656781 Bioenergy 0.0340782 0.015086136 0.009472338 Petrol 9.972336309 1.34977123 0.03010756 Solid fuel 0.140994923 0.03617493 0.003040882 Electricity 1.985257621 0.440217351 0.105338071 Total Emissions 11.99563242 1.831883355 0.20257475
0
5
10
15
20
Annual emissions (MtCO2)
2030
2040
2050
Natural gas 2021: 10.98251142 2022: 10.85397264 2023: 10.68954822 2024: 10.51816669 2025: 10.27914022 2026: 9.987222661 2027: 9.638279831 2028: 9.180839788 2029: 8.711221512 2030: 8.228017237 2031: 7.840272845 2032: 7.426203883 2033: 6.954973183 2034: 6.417655877 2035: 5.878277222 2036: 5.365993826 2037: 4.874509011 2038: 4.379344942 2039: 3.869390655 2040: 3.341506343 2041: 2.780851678 2042: 2.27767496 2043: 1.833995422 2044: 1.407795449 2045: 1.043625132 2046: 0.71414925 2047: 0.391588661 2048: 0.135898101 2049: 0.071346339 2050: 0.017288933
Hydrogen 2021: 0.000564791 2022: 0.000683658 2023: 0.000727077 2024: 0.000717157 2025: 0.000776772 2026: 0.00064973 2027: 0.00063455 2028: 0.000941494 2029: 0.000960663 2030: 0.00396029 2031: 0.005950366 2032: 0.007395202 2033: 0.009297332 2034: 0.011900579 2035: 0.014207714 2036: 0.017002627 2037: 0.019108613 2038: 0.021453974 2039: 0.023705699 2040: 0.026808637 2041: 0.034564279 2042: 0.040794632 2043: 0.045413954 2044: 0.049873348 2045: 0.053049526 2046: 0.05507445 2047: 0.056199573 2048: 0.057451587 2049: 0.05820506 2050: 0.057656781
Bioenergy 2021: 0.056850355 2022: 0.054906417 2023: 0.052795306 2024: 0.050624745 2025: 0.0485716 2026: 0.045784318 2027: 0.042564357 2028: 0.039093718 2029: 0.036562872 2030: 0.0340782 2031: 0.032123357 2032: 0.030184196 2033: 0.028349881 2034: 0.026298588 2035: 0.023529809 2036: 0.021869721 2037: 0.020201936 2038: 0.018541212 2039: 0.016810988 2040: 0.015086136 2041: 0.013360946 2042: 0.011635514 2043: 0.009997172 2044: 0.009759544 2045: 0.009645494 2046: 0.009605859 2047: 0.009566645 2048: 0.009534629 2049: 0.009503468 2050: 0.009472338
Petrol 2021: 18.41311609 2022: 18.15053935 2023: 17.52993135 2024: 16.83781335 2025: 15.95845405 2026: 14.80362403 2027: 13.62691998 2028: 12.39501143 2029: 11.16067651 2030: 9.972336309 2031: 8.797047098 2032: 7.545288197 2033: 6.395609484 2034: 5.35452095 2035: 4.422152055 2036: 3.639418923 2037: 2.948135804 2038: 2.34051249 2039: 1.809247099 2040: 1.34977123 2041: 0.973495032 2042: 0.667412015 2043: 0.422194504 2044: 0.269737232 2045: 0.168717709 2046: 0.112201859 2047: 0.070691091 2048: 0.051806448 2049: 0.038983533 2050: 0.03010756
Solid fuel 2021: 0.277105276 2022: 0.264836707 2023: 0.251007922 2024: 0.236966918 2025: 0.22461675 2026: 0.208382505 2027: 0.188701242 2028: 0.167395804 2029: 0.154046927 2030: 0.140994923 2031: 0.129514446 2032: 0.118130671 2033: 0.107336084 2034: 0.096630557 2035: 0.086424594 2036: 0.076524733 2037: 0.066596892 2038: 0.056699072 2039: 0.046440719 2040: 0.03617493 2041: 0.02588364 2042: 0.015621381 2043: 0.005832849 2044: 0.00489016 2045: 0.004490291 2046: 0.004111161 2047: 0.003738591 2048: 0.003408833 2049: 0.003215632 2050: 0.003040882
Electricity 2021: 5.433194672 2022: 5.334347153 2023: 4.848137534 2024: 4.914598454 2025: 4.601739131 2026: 3.494864333 2027: 2.876274052 2028: 2.564870682 2029: 2.389998047 2030: 1.985257621 2031: 1.661592418 2032: 1.237325455 2033: 0.963342404 2034: 0.747949022 2035: 0.554479806 2036: 0.537786999 2037: 0.505656989 2038: 0.494633554 2039: 0.472254317 2040: 0.440217351 2041: 0.305838433 2042: 0.281818872 2043: 0.267417716 2044: 0.257858059 2045: 0.173019581 2046: 0.158014742 2047: 0.126483519 2048: 0.12604585 2049: 0.107089365 2050: 0.105338071
Total Emissions 2021: 23.90372591 2022: 23.54047658 2023: 22.43159127 2024: 21.80375371 2025: 20.60954156 2026: 18.34492241 2027: 16.54639294 2028: 14.99991733 2029: 13.5881981 2030: 11.99563242 2031: 10.49671324 2032: 8.820193051 2033: 7.3965991 2034: 6.140669139 2035: 5.014369383 2036: 4.21607827 2037: 3.493103341 2038: 2.875141229 2039: 2.322018103 2040: 1.831883355 2041: 1.327258689 2042: 1.001661033 2043: 0.745023347 2044: 0.587228183 2045: 0.404432309 2046: 0.33489691 2047: 0.262940828 2048: 0.244838514 2049: 0.213781427 2050: 0.20257475
Low carbon technologies
Figure 4: Electric vehicle uptake forecast (#)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Consumer Transformation 1734078 4612614 4211467 System Transformation 1005491 4327703 4241804 Leading The Way 1856121 4520504 3265163 NPg Planning Scenario 1843408 4589052 5013445 Falling Short 799403 3628975 4781906
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
Number
2030
2040
2050
Consumer Transformation 2021: 55956 2022: 101669 2023: 160323 2024: 252512 2025: 391377 2026: 598542 2027: 809539 2028: 1070422 2029: 1380521 2030: 1734078 2031: 2159887 2032: 2611577 2033: 3060319 2034: 3470364 2035: 3823990 2036: 4106123 2037: 4312251 2038: 4459753 2039: 4552937 2040: 4612614 2041: 4619976 2042: 4608375 2043: 4589627 2044: 4563607 2045: 4529989 2046: 4486289 2047: 4432223 2048: 4372375 2049: 4298114 2050: 4211467
System Transformation 2021: 55956 2022: 84861 2023: 116723 2024: 160552 2025: 221150 2026: 305901 2027: 421821 2028: 580160 2029: 793281 2030: 1005491 2031: 1268575 2032: 1578832 2033: 1935100 2034: 2327290 2035: 2720731 2036: 3116692 2037: 3491035 2038: 3826361 2039: 4105417 2040: 4327703 2041: 4499029 2042: 4619061 2043: 4653438 2044: 4628815 2045: 4591689 2046: 4537532 2047: 4464840 2048: 4396785 2049: 4323869 2050: 4241804
Leading The Way 2021: 55956 2022: 99188 2023: 157675 2024: 246431 2025: 382317 2026: 588210 2027: 802792 2028: 1089652 2029: 1441581 2030: 1856121 2031: 2312335 2032: 2799431 2033: 3267498 2034: 3681880 2035: 4004929 2036: 4242174 2037: 4399033 2038: 4500405 2039: 4545426 2040: 4520504 2041: 4482058 2042: 4426958 2043: 4357391 2044: 4263987 2045: 4146432 2046: 4010951 2047: 3855464 2048: 3679794 2049: 3485480 2050: 3265163
NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 55956 2022: 108640 2023: 213800 2024: 350456 2025: 523703 2026: 716036 2027: 939481 2028: 1194431 2029: 1475724 2030: 1843408 2031: 2198530 2032: 2542871 2033: 2873291 2034: 3186376 2035: 3479607 2036: 3749194 2037: 3995456 2038: 4217344 2039: 4415258 2040: 4589052 2041: 4698245 2042: 4786011 2043: 4854110 2044: 4905744 2045: 4943989 2046: 4970617 2047: 4989110 2048: 5000992 2049: 5008709 2050: 5013445
Falling Short 2021: 55956 2022: 83356 2023: 111760 2024: 150270 2025: 201739 2026: 271706 2027: 364257 2028: 486860 2029: 647400 2030: 799403 2031: 976929 2032: 1182226 2033: 1415263 2034: 1674107 2035: 1953531 2036: 2281516 2037: 2626010 2038: 2978755 2039: 3326515 2040: 3628975 2041: 3903541 2042: 4144094 2043: 4351523 2044: 4521168 2045: 4653598 2046: 4685089 2047: 4712880 2048: 4737821 2049: 4760642 2050: 4781906
Figure 5: Electric vehicle penetration of total car stock (%)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 NPg Planning Scenario 38.4871641 87.477623 95.5675054
0
20
40
60
80
100
EVs (%)
2030
2040
2050
NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 1.3001366 2022: 2.4884284 2023: 4.8286267 2024: 7.8057563 2025: 11.5057467 2026: 15.5684855 2027: 20.217516 2028: 25.443375 2029: 31.1198366 2030: 38.4871641 2031: 45.4493762 2032: 52.0550758 2033: 58.2509361 2034: 63.9801693 2035: 69.2059408 2036: 73.9264913 2037: 78.1105423 2038: 81.7513667 2039: 84.8703159 2040: 87.477623 2041: 89.5590865 2042: 91.2321032 2043: 92.5302229 2044: 93.5144828 2045: 94.2435182 2046: 94.7511076 2047: 95.1036257 2048: 95.3301232 2049: 95.4772266 2050: 95.5675054
Figure 6: Total number of heat pumps
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Consumer Transformation 596248 2429889 3224513 System Transformation 202468 784423 1960917 Leading The Way 819729 2299343 2766866 NPg Planning Scenario 691754 2409952 3568971 Falling Short 188885 810031 1751705
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
Number
2030
2040
2050
Consumer Transformation 2021: 37489 2022: 60496 2023: 77413 2024: 95995 2025: 114619 2026: 156372 2027: 221081 2028: 314858 2029: 441924 2030: 596248 2031: 765830 2032: 931864 2033: 1097830 2034: 1262231 2035: 1454771 2036: 1669376 2037: 1859240 2038: 2047886 2039: 2238883 2040: 2429889 2041: 2605072 2042: 2749066 2043: 2863692 2044: 2949779 2045: 3015398 2046: 3068450 2047: 3118991 2048: 3166960 2049: 3209984 2050: 3224513
System Transformation 2021: 37489 2022: 50677 2023: 61770 2024: 73786 2025: 87361 2026: 103708 2027: 126231 2028: 150254 2029: 175686 2030: 202468 2031: 229157 2032: 249861 2033: 270891 2034: 292543 2035: 319920 2036: 421922 2037: 509682 2038: 599681 2039: 691302 2040: 784423 2041: 891919 2042: 989289 2043: 1092255 2044: 1201967 2045: 1320880 2046: 1462854 2047: 1588838 2048: 1715673 2049: 1842561 2050: 1960917
Leading The Way 2021: 37489 2022: 50600 2023: 103025 2024: 162562 2025: 243436 2026: 348261 2027: 459519 2028: 582052 2029: 696226 2030: 819729 2031: 995154 2032: 1135593 2033: 1276492 2034: 1415215 2035: 1577155 2036: 1812229 2037: 1973560 2038: 2095636 2039: 2211400 2040: 2299343 2041: 2429904 2042: 2482919 2043: 2524877 2044: 2583176 2045: 2631525 2046: 2682923 2047: 2717146 2048: 2743544 2049: 2769537 2050: 2766866
NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 37807 2022: 54255 2023: 73585 2024: 94167 2025: 145981 2026: 216586 2027: 305335 2028: 419489 2029: 545817 2030: 691754 2031: 825970 2032: 969084 2033: 1130282 2034: 1306315 2035: 1496164 2036: 1677062 2037: 1856404 2038: 2039602 2039: 2230016 2040: 2409952 2041: 2598963 2042: 2771448 2043: 2925286 2044: 3059379 2045: 3182376 2046: 3295319 2047: 3409463 2048: 3523789 2049: 3552198 2050: 3568971
Falling Short 2021: 37489 2022: 45319 2023: 52492 2024: 59561 2025: 66655 2026: 80477 2027: 102416 2028: 128177 2029: 157118 2030: 188885 2031: 230415 2032: 272029 2033: 315811 2034: 362622 2035: 413140 2036: 489992 2037: 557646 2038: 632642 2039: 717546 2040: 810031 2041: 922443 2042: 1010025 2043: 1094710 2044: 1176424 2045: 1255360 2046: 1334079 2047: 1414269 2048: 1519187 2049: 1633855 2050: 1751705
Figure 7: Battery storage capacity installed (GW)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Consumer Transformation 0.837408937 1.667240294 2.466123474 System Transformation 0.556557894 0.890776488 1.226409824 Leading The Way 0.848669887 1.680865897 2.531757128 NPg Planning Scenario 0.848669887 1.680865897 2.531757128 Falling Short 0.555744275 0.70912084 1.091853179
0
1
2
Installed capacity (GW)
2030
2040
2050
Consumer Transformation 2021: 0.176486037 2022: 0.266229847 2023: 0.355204655 2024: 0.564379614 2025: 0.590742318 2026: 0.609640915 2027: 0.629022271 2028: 0.652518353 2029: 0.673349399 2030: 0.837408937 2031: 0.864796668 2032: 0.899205723 2033: 0.959533798 2034: 1.00485877 2035: 1.123846656 2036: 1.187387324 2037: 1.277064054 2038: 1.419668554 2039: 1.538326817 2040: 1.667240294 2041: 1.743134823 2042: 1.844748879 2043: 1.899406431 2044: 1.96588005 2045: 2.02257269 2046: 2.165602836 2047: 2.228066158 2048: 2.292002824 2049: 2.397502665 2050: 2.466123474
System Transformation 2021: 0.17465433 2022: 0.238141808 2023: 0.243430888 2024: 0.281781699 2025: 0.524944676 2026: 0.530548064 2027: 0.536261032 2028: 0.543278288 2029: 0.549383496 2030: 0.556557894 2031: 0.564258477 2032: 0.576332809 2033: 0.602481624 2034: 0.689135625 2035: 0.700349342 2036: 0.831833035 2037: 0.849319605 2038: 0.864125919 2039: 0.877462788 2040: 0.890776488 2041: 0.984076675 2042: 1.066322647 2043: 1.080168137 2044: 1.133330671 2045: 1.147435742 2046: 1.162178389 2047: 1.177392394 2048: 1.193186909 2049: 1.209535431 2050: 1.226409824
Leading The Way 2021: 0.176172921 2022: 0.420699059 2023: 0.499134735 2024: 0.617693335 2025: 0.6311569 2026: 0.651174201 2027: 0.7481435 2028: 0.773389956 2029: 0.812993818 2030: 0.848669887 2031: 0.886334611 2032: 0.922754017 2033: 1.002598507 2034: 1.173943646 2035: 1.297315745 2036: 1.386683937 2037: 1.440568088 2038: 1.499011941 2039: 1.623689659 2040: 1.680865897 2041: 1.742154567 2042: 1.840905499 2043: 1.903806026 2044: 1.968423739 2045: 2.06825787 2046: 2.187518549 2047: 2.260353256 2048: 2.334921227 2049: 2.451556521 2050: 2.531757128
NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 0.176172921 2022: 0.420699059 2023: 0.499134735 2024: 0.617693335 2025: 0.6311569 2026: 0.651174201 2027: 0.7481435 2028: 0.773389956 2029: 0.812993818 2030: 0.848669887 2031: 0.886334611 2032: 0.922754017 2033: 1.002598507 2034: 1.173943646 2035: 1.297315745 2036: 1.386683937 2037: 1.440568088 2038: 1.499011941 2039: 1.623689659 2040: 1.680865897 2041: 1.742154567 2042: 1.840905499 2043: 1.903806026 2044: 1.968423739 2045: 2.06825787 2046: 2.187518549 2047: 2.260353256 2048: 2.334921227 2049: 2.451556521 2050: 2.531757128
Falling Short 2021: 0.175168927 2022: 0.219938852 2023: 0.246505446 2024: 0.250128672 2025: 0.289166264 2026: 0.494955994 2027: 0.500206693 2028: 0.506669722 2029: 0.511075049 2030: 0.555744275 2031: 0.561532655 2032: 0.567137882 2033: 0.575801414 2034: 0.599715913 2035: 0.608179949 2036: 0.618254654 2037: 0.629128891 2038: 0.641303699 2039: 0.650543029 2040: 0.70912084 2041: 0.718294933 2042: 0.725102488 2043: 0.732479046 2044: 0.739517311 2045: 0.82424904 2046: 0.881275415 2047: 0.889212783 2048: 1.0332461 2049: 1.07970313 2050: 1.091853179
Figure 8: Renewable generation installed (GW)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Consumer Transformation 5.857079922 10.22599253 13.81622686 System Transformation 4.590609604 6.614619443 8.41155267 Leading The Way 6.205018195 10.39480189 13.49899907 NPg Planning Scenario 6.205018195 10.39480189 13.49899907 Falling Short 3.809571646 4.841363586 5.733567309
0
5
10
Renewable generation (GW)
2030
2040
2050
Consumer Transformation 2021: 3.00796539 2022: 3.515046037 2023: 3.620449781 2024: 3.812749717 2025: 4.113260806 2026: 4.424899953 2027: 4.741723296 2028: 5.086592741 2029: 5.449696004 2030: 5.857079922 2031: 6.289918816 2032: 6.722737566 2033: 7.151230128 2034: 7.615143071 2035: 8.052239374 2036: 8.482382009 2037: 8.886782431 2038: 9.304898184 2039: 9.744981658 2040: 10.22599253 2041: 10.70163214 2042: 11.1788584 2043: 11.6571057 2044: 12.08604521 2045: 12.51234436 2046: 12.82961039 2047: 13.07648385 2048: 13.3231861 2049: 13.5674299 2050: 13.81622686
System Transformation 2021: 3.006892389 2022: 3.480425107 2023: 3.538991447 2024: 3.627071692 2025: 3.742744082 2026: 3.875949124 2027: 4.026318959 2028: 4.188621119 2029: 4.362636377 2030: 4.590609604 2031: 4.83776166 2032: 5.092561266 2033: 5.333905021 2034: 5.600930061 2035: 5.819225774 2036: 5.997879065 2037: 6.138315011 2038: 6.279131675 2039: 6.427808931 2040: 6.614619443 2041: 6.801700172 2042: 6.988492539 2043: 7.175513172 2044: 7.347801251 2045: 7.520442856 2046: 7.693573928 2047: 7.867082712 2048: 8.04098553 2049: 8.215291964 2050: 8.41155267
Leading The Way 2021: 3.007160639 2022: 3.534318448 2023: 3.674195275 2024: 3.936792612 2025: 4.295294965 2026: 4.662127581 2027: 5.032440115 2028: 5.412967098 2029: 5.796951484 2030: 6.205018195 2031: 6.653679571 2032: 7.122341404 2033: 7.582374158 2034: 8.031265393 2035: 8.44586419 2036: 8.821226342 2037: 9.172680658 2038: 9.524046339 2039: 9.939541117 2040: 10.39480189 2041: 10.83986076 2042: 11.29389067 2043: 11.74829516 2044: 12.10540268 2045: 12.42368884 2046: 12.67192048 2047: 12.87504101 2048: 13.07850069 2049: 13.28082034 2050: 13.49899907
NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 3.007160639 2022: 3.534318448 2023: 3.674195275 2024: 3.936792612 2025: 4.295294965 2026: 4.662127581 2027: 5.032440115 2028: 5.412967098 2029: 5.796951484 2030: 6.205018195 2031: 6.653679571 2032: 7.122341404 2033: 7.582374158 2034: 8.031265393 2035: 8.44586419 2036: 8.821226342 2037: 9.172680658 2038: 9.524046339 2039: 9.939541117 2040: 10.39480189 2041: 10.83986076 2042: 11.29389067 2043: 11.74829516 2044: 12.10540268 2045: 12.42368884 2046: 12.67192048 2047: 12.87504101 2048: 13.07850069 2049: 13.28082034 2050: 13.49899907
Falling Short 2021: 3.006758264 2022: 3.447245522 2023: 3.462172322 2024: 3.483786231 2025: 3.50757944 2026: 3.545843923 2027: 3.595522115 2028: 3.652636534 2029: 3.717451007 2030: 3.809571646 2031: 3.930150048 2032: 4.067394348 2033: 4.202572882 2034: 4.348805045 2035: 4.465882603 2036: 4.571883648 2037: 4.631683434 2038: 4.691530656 2039: 4.774159251 2040: 4.841363586 2041: 4.931240585 2042: 5.020974064 2043: 5.110558682 2044: 5.199998821 2045: 5.289293998 2046: 5.378439455 2047: 5.4674427 2048: 5.556297556 2049: 5.645006254 2050: 5.733567309
Figure 9: Electric bus and HGV uptake forecast (#)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Consumer Transformation 5378.08186 58127.85786 78266.82095 System Transformation 4304.170496 38732.41944 42309.18745 Leading The Way 6094.428723 56712.45779 71888.81374 NPg Planning Scenario 18082.62075 78336.652 90076.97363 Falling Short 1587.727654 21418.18665 69592.03737
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Number
2030
2040
2050
Consumer Transformation 2021: 141.4571608 2022: 268.5476759 2023: 410.9407815 2024: 632.8733598 2025: 973.3597892 2026: 1497.118666 2027: 2076.090613 2028: 2863.073515 2029: 3931.260925 2030: 5378.08186 2031: 7327.880107 2032: 9945.188921 2033: 13418.53346 2034: 17954.21966 2035: 23623.4925 2036: 29813.40166 2037: 36494.59665 2038: 43556.49554 2039: 50748.82752 2040: 58127.85786 2041: 65236.64446 2042: 70878.51539 2043: 74264.17381 2044: 75118.99166 2045: 75880.15588 2046: 76546.69216 2047: 77213.42077 2048: 77633.78517 2049: 78143.73296 2050: 78266.82095
System Transformation 2021: 141.4571608 2022: 243.6587848 2023: 352.4074258 2024: 511.0550454 2025: 737.8371061 2026: 1063.88894 2027: 1533.835174 2028: 2212.170688 2029: 3192.018241 2030: 4304.170496 2031: 5785.822305 2032: 7754.375638 2033: 10341.35967 2034: 13626.6662 2035: 17788.34675 2036: 22035.15591 2037: 26314.84737 2038: 30569.45085 2039: 34735.39392 2040: 38732.41944 2041: 42480.02666 2042: 45763.50639 2043: 47937.2696 2044: 47631.43841 2045: 46977.15382 2046: 46186.64951 2047: 45297.52512 2048: 44331.63021 2049: 43334.81843 2050: 42309.18745
Leading The Way 2021: 141.4571608 2022: 318.6491878 2023: 489.2781377 2024: 755.4697386 2025: 1160.974087 2026: 1778.810318 2027: 2449.609115 2028: 3343.520366 2029: 4529.23153 2030: 6094.428723 2031: 8143.848142 2032: 10821.44116 2033: 14282.48528 2034: 18703.93596 2035: 24099.67683 2036: 29900.96599 2037: 36114.3799 2038: 42720.43277 2039: 49602.6969 2040: 56712.45779 2041: 63522.50266 2042: 69777.3239 2043: 74657.66526 2044: 75841.8712 2045: 75487.2086 2046: 75002.04641 2047: 74411.90907 2048: 73709.63745 2049: 72904.74336 2050: 71888.81374
NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 194.9805655 2022: 474.3573882 2023: 874.991904 2024: 1396.884113 2025: 2040.034015 2026: 3551.83516 2027: 5911.994406 2028: 9120.511753 2029: 13177.3872 2030: 18082.62075 2031: 23808.19894 2032: 29946.0562 2033: 36474.95013 2034: 43359.14097 2035: 50598.62872 2036: 57284.74678 2037: 63422.34915 2038: 69011.43583 2039: 73982.87011 2040: 78336.652 2041: 81805.69214 2042: 84563.29232 2043: 86609.45252 2044: 87984.67696 2045: 88688.96565 2046: 89091.41705 2047: 89407.24573 2048: 89636.45169 2049: 89859.69432 2050: 90076.97363
Falling Short 2021: 141.4571608 2022: 140.9680333 2023: 193.1721394 2024: 264.4504125 2025: 361.486128 2026: 486.1230586 2027: 658.2780857 2028: 897.4212169 2029: 1231.25923 2030: 1587.727654 2031: 2054.169084 2032: 2668.093691 2033: 3478.946703 2034: 4553.10164 2035: 5977.392114 2036: 7862.521849 2037: 10341.23788 2038: 13171.91625 2039: 16381.22814 2040: 21418.18665 2041: 26881.76247 2042: 32815.18974 2043: 39224.55777 2044: 46022.78937 2045: 53550.64254 2046: 59488.81947 2047: 63661.33901 2048: 65521.9897 2049: 67504.91381 2050: 69592.03737
Network data
Figure 10: Annual peak demand (GW)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Consumer Transformation 7.327515215 10.52420548 10.91550803 System Transformation 7.083622716 9.759121063 11.32225044 Leading The Way 7.157733943 9.826600444 9.678162076 NPg Planning Scenario no customer flexibility - - - 7.960311949 11.40363146 12.74274774 Falling Short 7.351733022 9.815153581 12.21856536 NPg Planning Scenario 7.746006251 10.8730149 12.19631847
0
5
10
Annual peak demand (GW)
2030
2040
2050
Consumer Transformation 2021: 5.986805647 2022: 6.443320388 2023: 6.413478686 2024: 6.412530845 2025: 6.439425158 2026: 6.524668399 2027: 6.640457613 2028: 6.795809895 2029: 7.011469151 2030: 7.327515215 2031: 7.677471209 2032: 8.05017194 2033: 8.423106636 2034: 8.774956104 2035: 9.283153009 2036: 9.610745674 2037: 9.880978823 2038: 10.11582279 2039: 10.32545727 2040: 10.52420548 2041: 10.68327069 2042: 10.79077209 2043: 10.85072888 2044: 10.88371259 2045: 10.90572498 2046: 10.92089958 2047: 10.9320075 2048: 10.93955945 2049: 10.93706496 2050: 10.91550803
System Transformation 2021: 6.003826146 2022: 6.573592377 2023: 6.560536283 2024: 6.534749593 2025: 6.541368585 2026: 6.591646392 2027: 6.669236535 2028: 6.767944148 2029: 6.889303553 2030: 7.083622716 2031: 7.251646995 2032: 7.437330269 2033: 7.648165036 2034: 7.878513967 2035: 8.289743528 2036: 8.63345416 2037: 8.954074667 2038: 9.252283116 2039: 9.519505769 2040: 9.759121063 2041: 9.993651255 2042: 10.18592316 2043: 10.34485 2044: 10.47833145 2045: 10.61527331 2046: 10.77869834 2047: 10.91328715 2048: 11.05474549 2049: 11.19449867 2050: 11.32225044
Leading The Way 2021: 5.98654234 2022: 6.352269558 2023: 6.271905459 2024: 6.241979631 2025: 6.255064597 2026: 6.327752799 2027: 6.454056255 2028: 6.63888329 2029: 6.847997323 2030: 7.157733943 2031: 7.543521279 2032: 7.890694231 2033: 8.23366803 2034: 8.551881211 2035: 9.002390966 2036: 9.315933458 2037: 9.520159362 2038: 9.659287742 2039: 9.769314247 2040: 9.826600444 2041: 9.912128342 2042: 9.913343439 2043: 9.89470869 2044: 9.87688902 2045: 9.849806677 2046: 9.832369347 2047: 9.807699267 2048: 9.771163802 2049: 9.731866594 2050: 9.678162076
NPg Planning Scenario no customer flexibility 2021: 5.97446741 2022: 6.550347841 2023: 6.610404709 2024: 6.659772545 2025: 6.744214469 2026: 6.865795718 2027: 7.033066331 2028: 7.255989124 2029: 7.533729478 2030: 7.960311949 2031: 8.287769807 2032: 8.601690381 2033: 8.949517356 2034: 9.294016855 2035: 9.856308625 2036: 10.22956746 2037: 10.55671558 2038: 10.86983089 2039: 11.16076592 2040: 11.40363146 2041: 11.61182286 2042: 11.81064179 2043: 11.99697571 2044: 12.15650857 2045: 12.30477686 2046: 12.44332471 2047: 12.58230194 2048: 12.71579503 2049: 12.73536654 2050: 12.74274774
Falling Short 2021: 6.004237499 2022: 6.787883478 2023: 6.877307554 2024: 6.914595862 2025: 6.946691894 2026: 6.96698956 2027: 7.014689726 2028: 7.087384714 2029: 7.179699302 2030: 7.351733022 2031: 7.486263669 2032: 7.632058221 2033: 7.795232514 2034: 7.97425339 2035: 8.349377288 2036: 8.622649519 2037: 8.895174306 2038: 9.188153329 2039: 9.499498827 2040: 9.815153581 2041: 10.15728728 2042: 10.44475807 2043: 10.71573195 2044: 10.96867491 2045: 11.2058214 2046: 11.39728926 2047: 11.58078599 2048: 11.77958485 2049: 11.99391158 2050: 12.21856536
NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 5.969345854 2022: 6.539902741 2023: 6.593133939 2024: 6.631402589 2025: 6.698548432 2026: 6.800633682 2027: 6.9422274 2028: 7.128464925 2029: 7.366552236 2030: 7.746006251 2031: 8.026759613 2032: 8.298471786 2033: 8.611801059 2034: 8.922868195 2035: 9.442773932 2036: 9.777352253 2037: 10.07674483 2038: 10.36909878 2039: 10.64393491 2040: 10.8730149 2041: 11.0730983 2042: 11.26565803 2043: 11.44772865 2044: 11.60444508 2045: 11.75156343 2046: 11.89032587 2047: 12.03013433 2048: 12.16511665 2049: 12.1867239 2050: 12.19631847
Figure 11: Network peak demand breakdown — Planning Scenario (GW)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Domestic 2.258380852 2.276591319 2.3598171 I & C 3.987293589 4.018024205 3.951210743 Heat pumps - domestic 0.535700979 1.985367672 2.804302064 Heat pumps - I & C 0.128370285 0.395974613 0.730448154 EV 0.71246662 1.72326184 1.788852192
0
1
2
3
4
Annual gross peak demand (GW)
2030
2040
2050
Domestic 2021: 2.44804489 2022: 2.30045375 2023: 2.282730035 2024: 2.271687518 2025: 2.259112924 2026: 2.250734876 2027: 2.251640353 2028: 2.253449693 2029: 2.255696586 2030: 2.258380852 2031: 2.257618407 2032: 2.25749484 2033: 2.257472614 2034: 2.256858745 2035: 2.25703396 2036: 2.258726245 2037: 2.262629345 2038: 2.267762894 2039: 2.27165651 2040: 2.276591319 2041: 2.283158361 2042: 2.289491181 2043: 2.29585808 2044: 2.302260011 2045: 2.308775739 2046: 2.315172777 2047: 2.323174832 2048: 2.333783393 2049: 2.344509241 2050: 2.3598171
I & C 2021: 3.429756652 2022: 4.11868925 2023: 4.125933013 2024: 4.090915931 2025: 4.055751647 2026: 4.023753297 2027: 3.994409674 2028: 3.967749158 2029: 3.944009967 2030: 3.987293589 2031: 3.968673894 2032: 3.951345855 2033: 3.935202606 2034: 3.920159679 2035: 4.07268023 2036: 4.060050682 2037: 4.048329794 2038: 4.037466301 2039: 4.027385676 2040: 4.018024205 2041: 4.009327567 2042: 4.001238825 2043: 3.993693468 2044: 3.986655411 2045: 3.980034983 2046: 3.973782269 2047: 3.96783586 2048: 3.962133721 2049: 3.956613151 2050: 3.951210743
Heat pumps - domestic 2021: 0.022111132 2022: 0.028346995 2023: 0.035537781 2024: 0.042972142 2025: 0.06990346 2026: 0.115262902 2027: 0.17636371 2028: 0.265356592 2029: 0.383844693 2030: 0.535700979 2031: 0.660455637 2032: 0.78490612 2033: 0.936808525 2034: 1.093775289 2035: 1.255603194 2036: 1.410752309 2037: 1.56415077 2038: 1.715806276 2039: 1.866065731 2040: 1.985367672 2041: 2.101710144 2042: 2.218632561 2043: 2.333391683 2044: 2.431815352 2045: 2.528367834 2046: 2.622737534 2047: 2.720361829 2048: 2.815126544 2049: 2.81154971 2050: 2.804302064
Heat pumps - I & C 2021: 0.043292511 2022: 0.043208728 2023: 0.046794229 2024: 0.053643422 2025: 0.061635803 2026: 0.071064267 2027: 0.081158117 2028: 0.091553335 2029: 0.108783046 2030: 0.128370285 2031: 0.150930441 2032: 0.170150947 2033: 0.19313254 2034: 0.215331195 2035: 0.237156629 2036: 0.259413608 2037: 0.289716359 2038: 0.324044832 2039: 0.362549933 2040: 0.395974613 2041: 0.428042093 2042: 0.463023435 2043: 0.500623612 2044: 0.537891025 2045: 0.576971313 2046: 0.61760558 2047: 0.656835484 2048: 0.694153803 2049: 0.718310395 2050: 0.730448154
EV 2021: 0.024842549 2022: 0.046136755 2023: 0.096555752 2024: 0.163337858 2025: 0.239289568 2026: 0.316425468 2027: 0.398603219 2028: 0.48781939 2029: 0.583668431 2030: 0.71246662 2031: 0.827292075 2032: 0.935113853 2033: 1.052476511 2034: 1.163335827 2035: 1.310771781 2036: 1.440704354 2037: 1.528647256 2038: 1.607793184 2039: 1.669876589 2040: 1.72326184 2041: 1.755242272 2042: 1.7797155 2043: 1.796549778 2044: 1.807929751 2045: 1.813011805 2046: 1.812860442 2047: 1.810192045 2048: 1.804816528 2049: 1.797320849 2050: 1.788852192
Figure 12: Network energy consumption breakdown — Planning Scenario (TWh)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Domestic 10.98095388 11.08205457 11.48031471 I & C 21.02625855 20.44258337 20.01548504 Heat pumps - domestic 2.556874936 10.00155652 14.32339795 Heat pumps - I & C 0.474726148 1.541778411 2.889564175 EV 4.509905886 11.36683294 11.77576029
0
5
10
15
20
Network energy consumption (TWh)
2030
2040
2050
Domestic 2021: 11.82940951 2022: 11.11480695 2023: 11.02975752 2024: 10.98005756 2025: 10.92662177 2026: 10.89493499 2027: 10.91112065 2028: 10.9346987 2029: 10.95770474 2030: 10.98095388 2031: 10.98524333 2032: 10.9897383 2033: 10.99016539 2034: 10.98757967 2035: 10.98874016 2036: 10.99720128 2037: 11.01632818 2038: 11.04057705 2039: 11.05874631 2040: 11.08205457 2041: 11.11332474 2042: 11.14345154 2043: 11.17374368 2044: 11.20420571 2045: 11.23522164 2046: 11.26565763 2047: 11.30391832 2048: 11.35488494 2049: 11.40642849 2050: 11.48031471
I & C 2021: 21.16740887 2022: 22.09891431 2023: 22.00995133 2024: 21.83823637 2025: 21.67577545 2026: 21.52235062 2027: 21.37751431 2028: 21.2410094 2029: 21.11242531 2030: 21.02625855 2031: 20.91286899 2032: 20.80686522 2033: 20.70792406 2034: 20.61562311 2035: 20.78974067 2036: 20.70962723 2037: 20.6352283 2038: 20.56622504 2039: 20.50214489 2040: 20.44258337 2041: 20.38719753 2042: 20.33563029 2043: 20.28747518 2044: 20.24255093 2045: 20.20022447 2046: 20.16020957 2047: 20.12212018 2048: 20.08556638 2049: 20.05015413 2050: 20.01548504
Heat pumps - domestic 2021: 0.101524589 2022: 0.144439742 2023: 0.193901169 2024: 0.246640844 2025: 0.379577879 2026: 0.600250199 2027: 0.896798633 2028: 1.318921888 2029: 1.850997185 2030: 2.556874936 2031: 3.136454622 2032: 3.752770884 2033: 4.474534343 2034: 5.242070119 2035: 6.10560216 2036: 6.908478464 2037: 7.684725688 2038: 8.473586885 2039: 9.267835422 2040: 10.00155652 2041: 10.74029941 2042: 11.42085812 2043: 12.02731078 2044: 12.55216823 2045: 13.03066511 2046: 13.46912779 2047: 13.9214698 2048: 14.36223076 2049: 14.36500733 2050: 14.32339795
Heat pumps - I & C 2021: 0.157095627 2022: 0.168029617 2023: 0.18721429 2024: 0.212369321 2025: 0.241500745 2026: 0.273817238 2027: 0.308790663 2028: 0.34502116 2029: 0.404314607 2030: 0.474726148 2031: 0.556748732 2032: 0.632311365 2033: 0.716452522 2034: 0.803857694 2035: 0.892530732 2036: 0.983598678 2037: 1.102289978 2038: 1.239213152 2039: 1.394676107 2040: 1.541778411 2041: 1.688763089 2042: 1.839928561 2043: 1.992905991 2044: 2.14525653 2045: 2.299022946 2046: 2.453884996 2047: 2.602729916 2048: 2.743632963 2049: 2.842714398 2050: 2.889564175
EV 2021: 0.126970777 2022: 0.242051376 2023: 0.512078037 2024: 0.879890438 2025: 1.316415547 2026: 1.777499309 2027: 2.3007752 2028: 2.921536659 2029: 3.602497926 2030: 4.509905886 2031: 5.339484476 2032: 6.110125706 2033: 6.89353383 2034: 7.63616107 2035: 8.621538503 2036: 9.48901029 2037: 10.08517445 2038: 10.60550166 2039: 11.01482914 2040: 11.36683294 2041: 11.57773407 2042: 11.7370646 2043: 11.84564189 2044: 11.91835768 2045: 11.95001337 2046: 11.94681927 2047: 11.92653725 2048: 11.88796692 2049: 11.83530022 2050: 11.77576029
Figure 13: Annual network energy consumption (TWh)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Consumer Transformation 37.36600401 55.99234164 59.1998397 System Transformation 35.52765278 47.64379795 52.12057449 Leading The Way 36.18402648 52.54056502 53.75379989 NPg Planning Scenario 41.37497229 61.24789425 68.57801292 Falling Short 37.15874382 47.89524038 58.6698601
0
20
40
60
Energy consumption (TWh)
2030
2040
2050
Consumer Transformation 2021: 33.43466416 2022: 33.23377937 2023: 32.95478299 2024: 32.94145133 2025: 33.08238045 2026: 33.52001789 2027: 34.09535453 2028: 34.88992929 2029: 35.99859514 2030: 37.36600401 2031: 39.2509837 2032: 41.27566593 2033: 43.33648875 2034: 45.33550068 2035: 47.65975215 2036: 49.66879568 2037: 51.42138712 2038: 53.03978581 2039: 54.53570185 2040: 55.99234164 2041: 57.23768831 2042: 58.11107252 2043: 58.57101837 2044: 58.83208366 2045: 59.00813735 2046: 59.1215151 2047: 59.21749481 2048: 59.29371378 2049: 59.33646541 2050: 59.1998397
System Transformation 2021: 33.43558567 2022: 33.75834916 2023: 33.54184727 2024: 33.37592049 2025: 33.36419616 2026: 33.56080773 2027: 33.88381677 2028: 34.32175691 2029: 34.88899105 2030: 35.52765278 2031: 36.34801364 2032: 37.28748882 2033: 38.36915688 2034: 39.56332956 2035: 41.09364538 2036: 42.64198138 2037: 44.10268546 2038: 45.43967265 2039: 46.61599399 2040: 47.64379795 2041: 48.59662621 2042: 49.35479848 2043: 49.89466967 2044: 50.23523039 2045: 50.5640014 2046: 50.94980362 2047: 51.23585846 2048: 51.54737867 2049: 51.85287765 2050: 52.12057449
Leading The Way 2021: 33.43375106 2022: 32.77733992 2023: 32.22142352 2024: 32.03461489 2025: 32.07032952 2026: 32.41502781 2027: 32.98519475 2028: 33.85619664 2029: 34.8904495 2030: 36.18402648 2031: 38.22802534 2032: 40.16701514 2033: 42.11739202 2034: 43.98225568 2035: 46.03215186 2036: 48.00282679 2037: 49.46163426 2038: 50.64180493 2039: 51.70516519 2040: 52.54056502 2041: 53.5372376 2042: 54.0840127 2043: 54.43176293 2044: 54.51142989 2045: 54.48712212 2046: 54.47154279 2047: 54.37922336 2048: 54.22987807 2049: 54.06261855 2050: 53.75379989
NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 33.40503555 2022: 33.82164533 2023: 34.03005886 2024: 34.3110803 2025: 34.76348244 2026: 35.45166686 2027: 36.42195228 2028: 37.71293353 2029: 39.28087244 2030: 41.37497229 2031: 43.29366663 2032: 45.18812174 2033: 47.20681545 2034: 49.22864071 2035: 51.85161932 2036: 54.08770224 2037: 56.03417942 2038: 57.9104878 2039: 59.65784184 2040: 61.24789425 2041: 62.63593159 2042: 63.86516955 2043: 64.91904702 2044: 65.80565075 2045: 66.55681841 2046: 67.19682274 2047: 67.83146033 2048: 68.43663282 2049: 68.54822159 2050: 68.57801292
Falling Short 2021: 33.43701218 2022: 34.84439246 2023: 35.16881298 2024: 35.35561899 2025: 35.52168622 2026: 35.61882631 2027: 35.8357711 2028: 36.17483082 2029: 36.61683147 2030: 37.15874382 2031: 37.74987172 2032: 38.40967609 2033: 39.1606707 2034: 39.99475081 2035: 41.21084041 2036: 42.41981929 2037: 43.67678309 2038: 45.02109709 2039: 46.43382307 2040: 47.89524038 2041: 49.42349685 2042: 50.8051905 2043: 52.14539563 2044: 53.42837637 2045: 54.69967921 2046: 55.68924769 2047: 56.5613165 2048: 57.22036048 2049: 57.92868641 2050: 58.6698601
Figure 14: Network annual fuel consumption breakdown — Planning Scenario (GWh-yr)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Natural gas 40.27813412 16.35748161 0.08463351 Solid fuel 0.41469095 0.106396853 0.008943769 Petroleum 40.53643516 5.335305757 0.106090039 Hydrogen 0.133325141 2.018657855 3.947998708 Bioenergy 2.180307073 0.96520387 0.606035703 Electricity 43.91554218 65.05045544 72.94932022
0
20
40
60
Fuel consumption (GWh-yr)
2030
2040
2050
Natural gas 2021: 53.76204925 2022: 53.13282085 2023: 52.32792356 2024: 51.48896951 2025: 50.31887711 2026: 48.88987008 2027: 47.18171055 2028: 44.94243092 2029: 42.64353589 2030: 40.27813412 2031: 38.38003155 2032: 36.35306385 2033: 34.04627562 2034: 31.41597747 2035: 28.77558852 2036: 26.26783741 2037: 23.86190039 2038: 21.43795253 2039: 18.94160297 2040: 16.35748161 2041: 13.61294144 2042: 11.14976973 2043: 8.977851094 2044: 6.891499162 2045: 5.108797398 2046: 3.495933276 2047: 1.916921189 2048: 0.665254067 2049: 0.349257581 2050: 0.08463351
Solid fuel 2021: 0.815015517 2022: 0.778931491 2023: 0.738258594 2024: 0.696961522 2025: 0.660637499 2026: 0.61288972 2027: 0.555003654 2028: 0.492340599 2029: 0.453079198 2030: 0.41469095 2031: 0.380924841 2032: 0.347443149 2033: 0.315694365 2034: 0.28420752 2035: 0.254189982 2036: 0.225072745 2037: 0.195873211 2038: 0.166761976 2039: 0.13659035 2040: 0.106396853 2041: 0.076128352 2042: 0.045945238 2043: 0.017155439 2044: 0.014382823 2045: 0.013206738 2046: 0.012091649 2047: 0.010995857 2048: 0.010025978 2049: 0.009457742 2050: 0.008943769
Petroleum 2021: 75.0809831 2022: 74.04434804 2023: 71.49879131 2024: 68.65574047 2025: 65.02666729 2026: 60.28360617 2027: 55.48321389 2028: 50.47066188 2029: 45.40402314 2030: 40.53643516 2031: 35.70762412 2032: 30.5554031 2033: 25.83388586 2034: 21.57096479 2035: 17.76077072 2036: 14.57126362 2037: 11.76454965 2038: 9.307490012 2039: 7.171547064 2040: 5.335305757 2041: 3.845453143 2042: 2.644708118 2043: 1.694406957 2044: 1.076805078 2045: 0.667724326 2046: 0.438689889 2047: 0.272405402 2048: 0.195002807 2049: 0.142304059 2050: 0.106090039
Hydrogen 2021: 0.005774827 2022: 0.008665637 2023: 0.010189035 2024: 0.012560961 2025: 0.015949707 2026: 0.018421935 2027: 0.021838353 2028: 0.026750654 2029: 0.031719783 2030: 0.133325141 2031: 0.237549969 2032: 0.346393774 2033: 0.486893161 2034: 0.645409579 2035: 0.829372969 2036: 1.032309103 2037: 1.222628164 2038: 1.435789166 2039: 1.674208179 2040: 2.018657855 2041: 2.452796546 2042: 2.829535777 2043: 3.094175924 2044: 3.373691139 2045: 3.565550821 2046: 3.681565293 2047: 3.791104956 2048: 3.867442911 2049: 3.944362693 2050: 3.947998708
Bioenergy 2021: 3.637258777 2022: 3.512886537 2023: 3.377818664 2024: 3.238947247 2025: 3.107587944 2026: 2.929259011 2027: 2.72324741 2028: 2.501197541 2029: 2.33927524 2030: 2.180307073 2031: 2.055237162 2032: 1.931170595 2033: 1.813811937 2034: 1.682571241 2035: 1.50542601 2036: 1.399214365 2037: 1.292510304 2038: 1.18625795 2039: 1.07555904 2040: 0.96520387 2041: 0.854827005 2042: 0.744434673 2043: 0.639614362 2044: 0.624410981 2045: 0.617114152 2046: 0.614578287 2047: 0.612069408 2048: 0.610021021 2049: 0.608027412 2050: 0.606035703
Electricity 2021: 36.09422741 2022: 35.94381194 2023: 36.06186494 2024: 36.35850758 2025: 36.83997375 2026: 37.57741574 2027: 38.61975801 2028: 40.00863838 2029: 41.6935327 2030: 43.91554218 2031: 45.98192321 2032: 48.02241182 2033: 50.19708776 2034: 52.37522558 2035: 54.92243512 2036: 57.33254914 2037: 59.43050057 2038: 61.45301793 2039: 63.33642689 2040: 65.05045544 2041: 66.54649409 2042: 67.87146549 2043: 69.00722751 2044: 69.96278886 2045: 70.77192916 2046: 71.46123151 2047: 72.14521235 2048: 72.79739976 2049: 72.91740309 2050: 72.94932022
Figure 15: Additional industrial peak demand breakdown — Planning Scenario (MW)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Electric HGVs 111.7057902 437.7397414 517.9887337 Electric Buses 12.08813595 36.05550882 43.69947954 Electrolysers 0.424504076 11.92517287 12.11122672 Large industry Fuel Switching 192.4801016 427.1141316 614.5349297
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Electric HGVs 2021: 0.970320408 2022: 2.296133119 2023: 4.182380833 2024: 6.629063552 2025: 9.636181274 2026: 18.92724577 2027: 34.05411233 2028: 54.74241404 2029: 80.71777098 2030: 111.7057902 2031: 147.3735931 2032: 182.6555328 2033: 217.5159147 2034: 251.9188192 2035: 285.8281016 2036: 321.2535062 2037: 354.1588592 2038: 384.5426737 2039: 412.4034634 2040: 437.7397414 2041: 457.8022398 2042: 474.2792513 2043: 487.1715774 2044: 496.4800197 2045: 502.2053798 2046: 505.3774884 2047: 508.5418463 2048: 511.6984852 2049: 514.8474371 2050: 517.9887337
Electric Buses 2021: 0.327798974 2022: 0.771129884 2023: 1.400748411 2024: 2.216654553 2025: 3.218848311 2026: 4.465626763 2027: 5.998214747 2028: 7.794343412 2029: 9.831741621 2030: 12.08813595 2031: 14.4155647 2032: 16.80463947 2033: 19.19234813 2034: 21.48864095 2035: 23.70003585 2036: 26.45154739 2037: 29.11244531 2038: 31.68262295 2039: 33.99700861 2040: 36.05550882 2041: 37.81562735 2042: 39.27728117 2043: 40.4404544 2044: 41.4135138 2045: 42.19637389 2046: 42.7897778 2047: 43.19242992 2048: 43.40417925 2049: 43.5731192 2050: 43.69947954
Electrolysers 2026: 0.087711001 2027: 0.161402428 2028: 0.211527202 2029: 0.24415294 2030: 0.424504076 2031: 0.951395745 2032: 1.839858871 2033: 3.058117336 2034: 4.562311338 2035: 5.678149616 2036: 7.06511481 2037: 8.445586965 2038: 9.714584031 2039: 10.84977326 2040: 11.92517287 2041: 12.69693608 2042: 13.15832224 2043: 13.37366598 2044: 13.39245849 2045: 13.26772675 2046: 12.99508948 2047: 12.7263799 2048: 12.46875204 2049: 12.2605963 2050: 12.11122672
Large industry Fuel Switching 2021: 14.16801382 2022: 28.33602763 2023: 42.50404145 2024: 56.67205527 2025: 70.84006909 2026: 95.16807558 2027: 119.4960821 2028: 143.8240886 2029: 168.1520951 2030: 192.4801016 2031: 213.9288287 2032: 235.3775559 2033: 256.8262831 2034: 278.2750102 2035: 299.7237374 2036: 325.2018162 2037: 350.679895 2038: 376.1579739 2039: 401.6360527 2040: 427.1141316 2041: 464.5982912 2042: 502.0824508 2043: 539.5666105 2044: 577.0507701 2045: 614.5349297 2046: 614.5349297 2047: 614.5349297 2048: 614.5349297 2049: 614.5349297 2050: 614.5349297
Figure 16: Additional industrial energy consumption breakdown — Planning Scenario (GWh)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Electric HGVs 1459.337392 5718.682724 6767.064862 Electric Buses 366.9155014 1094.405717 1326.425887 Electrolysers 3.718655704 104.4645144 106.0943461 Large industry Fuel Switching 1686.12569 3741.519792 5383.325984
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6,000
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2040
2050
Electric HGVs 2021: 12.67637829 2022: 29.99694923 2023: 54.63910802 2024: 86.60285467 2025: 125.8881892 2026: 247.2677327 2027: 444.886871 2028: 715.1612427 2029: 1054.506317 2030: 1459.337392 2031: 1925.305704 2032: 2386.233053 2033: 2841.653124 2034: 3291.096657 2035: 3734.091452 2036: 4196.893045 2037: 4626.77239 2038: 5023.710066 2039: 5387.686651 2040: 5718.682724 2041: 5980.781529 2042: 6196.039117 2043: 6364.46596 2044: 6486.072529 2045: 6560.869297 2046: 6602.310091 2047: 6643.64963 2048: 6684.888327 2049: 6726.026599 2050: 6767.064862
Electric Buses 2021: 9.949799151 2022: 23.40638038 2023: 42.51741606 2024: 67.28290616 2025: 97.70285071 2026: 135.5467617 2027: 182.0659513 2028: 236.5844852 2029: 298.4263597 2030: 366.9155014 2031: 437.5607764 2032: 510.0772148 2033: 582.5521872 2034: 652.2523821 2035: 719.3756403 2036: 802.8932511 2037: 883.6604346 2038: 961.6739534 2039: 1031.923327 2040: 1094.405717 2041: 1147.831223 2042: 1192.197323 2043: 1227.503535 2044: 1257.039153 2045: 1280.801585 2046: 1298.813386 2047: 1311.035229 2048: 1317.462532 2049: 1322.590426 2050: 1326.425887
Electrolysers 2026: 0.768348366 2027: 1.413885271 2028: 1.852978286 2029: 2.138779753 2030: 3.718655704 2031: 8.334226726 2032: 16.11716371 2033: 26.78910786 2034: 39.96584732 2035: 49.74059063 2036: 61.89040573 2037: 73.98334181 2038: 85.09975611 2039: 95.04401376 2040: 104.4645144 2041: 111.22516 2042: 115.2669028 2043: 117.153314 2044: 117.3179363 2045: 116.2252863 2046: 113.8369839 2047: 111.4830879 2048: 109.2262679 2049: 107.4028236 2050: 106.0943461
Large industry Fuel Switching 2021: 124.111801 2022: 248.2236021 2023: 372.3354031 2024: 496.4472042 2025: 620.5590052 2026: 833.6723421 2027: 1046.785679 2028: 1259.899016 2029: 1473.012353 2030: 1686.12569 2031: 1874.01654 2032: 2061.90739 2033: 2249.79824 2034: 2437.689089 2035: 2625.579939 2036: 2848.76791 2037: 3071.955881 2038: 3295.143851 2039: 3518.331822 2040: 3741.519792 2041: 4069.881031 2042: 4398.242269 2043: 4726.603508 2044: 5054.964746 2045: 5383.325984 2046: 5383.325984 2047: 5383.325984 2048: 5383.325984 2049: 5383.325984 2050: 5383.325984
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