Open Innovations Northern Powergrid Element Energy

Northern Powergrid DFES 2022: graphs

The following graphs are supplemental to Northern Powergrid's DFES 2022 interactive map. Each graph can be downloaded as a scalable-vector-graphic (SVG). The underlying data for each graph is also available as a CSV file.

Emissions

Figure 1: Annual carbon emissions (MtCO2)
Scenario203020402050
NPg Planning scenario20.223649665.1733896980.219863684
0 10 20 30 Mt CO2(e) 2030 2040 2050 NPg Planning scenario 2021: 34.88623733 2022: 34.39444922 2023: 33.12113949 2024: 32.3219204 2025: 30.88868177 2026: 28.33214507 2027: 26.18467277 2028: 24.18075712 2029: 22.29941961 2030: 20.22364966 2031: 18.33698608 2032: 16.24639693 2033: 14.35157228 2034: 12.55832502 2035: 10.89264661 2036: 9.582072095 2037: 8.367612352 2038: 7.254486171 2039: 6.191408758 2040: 5.173389698 2041: 4.108110367 2042: 3.279335993 2043: 2.579018768 2044: 1.995023632 2045: 1.448057442 2046: 1.049046159 2047: 0.654529489 2048: 0.380736615 2049: 0.285127765 2050: 0.219863684
Figure 2: Cumulative carbon emissions (MtCO2)
Scenario203020402050
NPg Planning Scenario322.012292430.967188446.9660379
0 100 200 300 400 Cumulative emissions (MtCO2) 2030 2040 2050 NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 70.06545692 2022: 104.4599061 2023: 137.5810456 2024: 169.902966 2025: 200.7916478 2026: 229.1237929 2027: 255.3084656 2028: 279.4892228 2029: 301.7886424 2030: 322.012292 2031: 340.3492781 2032: 356.595675 2033: 370.9472473 2034: 383.5055723 2035: 394.3982189 2036: 403.980291 2037: 412.3479034 2038: 419.6023896 2039: 425.7937983 2040: 430.967188 2041: 435.0752984 2042: 438.3546344 2043: 440.9336532 2044: 442.9286768 2045: 444.3767342 2046: 445.4257804 2047: 446.0803099 2048: 446.4610465 2049: 446.7461743 2050: 446.9660379
Figure 3: Network annual carbon emission breakdown - Planning Scenario (MtCO2)
Scenario203020402050
Natural gas8.2280172373.3415063430.017288933
Hydrogen0.003960290.0268086370.057656781
Bioenergy0.03407820.0150861360.009472338
Petrol9.9723363091.349771230.03010756
Solid fuel0.1409949230.036174930.003040882
Electricity1.9852576210.4402173510.105338071
Total Emissions11.995632421.8318833550.20257475
0 5 10 15 20 Annual emissions (MtCO2) 2030 2040 2050 Natural gas 2021: 10.98251142 2022: 10.85397264 2023: 10.68954822 2024: 10.51816669 2025: 10.27914022 2026: 9.987222661 2027: 9.638279831 2028: 9.180839788 2029: 8.711221512 2030: 8.228017237 2031: 7.840272845 2032: 7.426203883 2033: 6.954973183 2034: 6.417655877 2035: 5.878277222 2036: 5.365993826 2037: 4.874509011 2038: 4.379344942 2039: 3.869390655 2040: 3.341506343 2041: 2.780851678 2042: 2.27767496 2043: 1.833995422 2044: 1.407795449 2045: 1.043625132 2046: 0.71414925 2047: 0.391588661 2048: 0.135898101 2049: 0.071346339 2050: 0.017288933 Hydrogen 2021: 0.000564791 2022: 0.000683658 2023: 0.000727077 2024: 0.000717157 2025: 0.000776772 2026: 0.00064973 2027: 0.00063455 2028: 0.000941494 2029: 0.000960663 2030: 0.00396029 2031: 0.005950366 2032: 0.007395202 2033: 0.009297332 2034: 0.011900579 2035: 0.014207714 2036: 0.017002627 2037: 0.019108613 2038: 0.021453974 2039: 0.023705699 2040: 0.026808637 2041: 0.034564279 2042: 0.040794632 2043: 0.045413954 2044: 0.049873348 2045: 0.053049526 2046: 0.05507445 2047: 0.056199573 2048: 0.057451587 2049: 0.05820506 2050: 0.057656781 Bioenergy 2021: 0.056850355 2022: 0.054906417 2023: 0.052795306 2024: 0.050624745 2025: 0.0485716 2026: 0.045784318 2027: 0.042564357 2028: 0.039093718 2029: 0.036562872 2030: 0.0340782 2031: 0.032123357 2032: 0.030184196 2033: 0.028349881 2034: 0.026298588 2035: 0.023529809 2036: 0.021869721 2037: 0.020201936 2038: 0.018541212 2039: 0.016810988 2040: 0.015086136 2041: 0.013360946 2042: 0.011635514 2043: 0.009997172 2044: 0.009759544 2045: 0.009645494 2046: 0.009605859 2047: 0.009566645 2048: 0.009534629 2049: 0.009503468 2050: 0.009472338 Petrol 2021: 18.41311609 2022: 18.15053935 2023: 17.52993135 2024: 16.83781335 2025: 15.95845405 2026: 14.80362403 2027: 13.62691998 2028: 12.39501143 2029: 11.16067651 2030: 9.972336309 2031: 8.797047098 2032: 7.545288197 2033: 6.395609484 2034: 5.35452095 2035: 4.422152055 2036: 3.639418923 2037: 2.948135804 2038: 2.34051249 2039: 1.809247099 2040: 1.34977123 2041: 0.973495032 2042: 0.667412015 2043: 0.422194504 2044: 0.269737232 2045: 0.168717709 2046: 0.112201859 2047: 0.070691091 2048: 0.051806448 2049: 0.038983533 2050: 0.03010756 Solid fuel 2021: 0.277105276 2022: 0.264836707 2023: 0.251007922 2024: 0.236966918 2025: 0.22461675 2026: 0.208382505 2027: 0.188701242 2028: 0.167395804 2029: 0.154046927 2030: 0.140994923 2031: 0.129514446 2032: 0.118130671 2033: 0.107336084 2034: 0.096630557 2035: 0.086424594 2036: 0.076524733 2037: 0.066596892 2038: 0.056699072 2039: 0.046440719 2040: 0.03617493 2041: 0.02588364 2042: 0.015621381 2043: 0.005832849 2044: 0.00489016 2045: 0.004490291 2046: 0.004111161 2047: 0.003738591 2048: 0.003408833 2049: 0.003215632 2050: 0.003040882 Electricity 2021: 5.433194672 2022: 5.334347153 2023: 4.848137534 2024: 4.914598454 2025: 4.601739131 2026: 3.494864333 2027: 2.876274052 2028: 2.564870682 2029: 2.389998047 2030: 1.985257621 2031: 1.661592418 2032: 1.237325455 2033: 0.963342404 2034: 0.747949022 2035: 0.554479806 2036: 0.537786999 2037: 0.505656989 2038: 0.494633554 2039: 0.472254317 2040: 0.440217351 2041: 0.305838433 2042: 0.281818872 2043: 0.267417716 2044: 0.257858059 2045: 0.173019581 2046: 0.158014742 2047: 0.126483519 2048: 0.12604585 2049: 0.107089365 2050: 0.105338071 Total Emissions 2021: 23.90372591 2022: 23.54047658 2023: 22.43159127 2024: 21.80375371 2025: 20.60954156 2026: 18.34492241 2027: 16.54639294 2028: 14.99991733 2029: 13.5881981 2030: 11.99563242 2031: 10.49671324 2032: 8.820193051 2033: 7.3965991 2034: 6.140669139 2035: 5.014369383 2036: 4.21607827 2037: 3.493103341 2038: 2.875141229 2039: 2.322018103 2040: 1.831883355 2041: 1.327258689 2042: 1.001661033 2043: 0.745023347 2044: 0.587228183 2045: 0.404432309 2046: 0.33489691 2047: 0.262940828 2048: 0.244838514 2049: 0.213781427 2050: 0.20257475

Low carbon technologies

Figure 4: Electric vehicle uptake forecast (#)
Scenario203020402050
Consumer Transformation173407846126144211467
System Transformation100549143277034241804
Leading The Way185612145205043265163
NPg Planning Scenario184340845890525013445
Falling Short79940336289754781906
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 Number 2030 2040 2050 Consumer Transformation 2021: 55956 2022: 101669 2023: 160323 2024: 252512 2025: 391377 2026: 598542 2027: 809539 2028: 1070422 2029: 1380521 2030: 1734078 2031: 2159887 2032: 2611577 2033: 3060319 2034: 3470364 2035: 3823990 2036: 4106123 2037: 4312251 2038: 4459753 2039: 4552937 2040: 4612614 2041: 4619976 2042: 4608375 2043: 4589627 2044: 4563607 2045: 4529989 2046: 4486289 2047: 4432223 2048: 4372375 2049: 4298114 2050: 4211467 System Transformation 2021: 55956 2022: 84861 2023: 116723 2024: 160552 2025: 221150 2026: 305901 2027: 421821 2028: 580160 2029: 793281 2030: 1005491 2031: 1268575 2032: 1578832 2033: 1935100 2034: 2327290 2035: 2720731 2036: 3116692 2037: 3491035 2038: 3826361 2039: 4105417 2040: 4327703 2041: 4499029 2042: 4619061 2043: 4653438 2044: 4628815 2045: 4591689 2046: 4537532 2047: 4464840 2048: 4396785 2049: 4323869 2050: 4241804 Leading The Way 2021: 55956 2022: 99188 2023: 157675 2024: 246431 2025: 382317 2026: 588210 2027: 802792 2028: 1089652 2029: 1441581 2030: 1856121 2031: 2312335 2032: 2799431 2033: 3267498 2034: 3681880 2035: 4004929 2036: 4242174 2037: 4399033 2038: 4500405 2039: 4545426 2040: 4520504 2041: 4482058 2042: 4426958 2043: 4357391 2044: 4263987 2045: 4146432 2046: 4010951 2047: 3855464 2048: 3679794 2049: 3485480 2050: 3265163 NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 55956 2022: 108640 2023: 213800 2024: 350456 2025: 523703 2026: 716036 2027: 939481 2028: 1194431 2029: 1475724 2030: 1843408 2031: 2198530 2032: 2542871 2033: 2873291 2034: 3186376 2035: 3479607 2036: 3749194 2037: 3995456 2038: 4217344 2039: 4415258 2040: 4589052 2041: 4698245 2042: 4786011 2043: 4854110 2044: 4905744 2045: 4943989 2046: 4970617 2047: 4989110 2048: 5000992 2049: 5008709 2050: 5013445 Falling Short 2021: 55956 2022: 83356 2023: 111760 2024: 150270 2025: 201739 2026: 271706 2027: 364257 2028: 486860 2029: 647400 2030: 799403 2031: 976929 2032: 1182226 2033: 1415263 2034: 1674107 2035: 1953531 2036: 2281516 2037: 2626010 2038: 2978755 2039: 3326515 2040: 3628975 2041: 3903541 2042: 4144094 2043: 4351523 2044: 4521168 2045: 4653598 2046: 4685089 2047: 4712880 2048: 4737821 2049: 4760642 2050: 4781906
Figure 5: Electric vehicle penetration of total car stock (%)
Scenario203020402050
NPg Planning Scenario38.487164187.47762395.5675054
0 20 40 60 80 100 EVs (%) 2030 2040 2050 NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 1.3001366 2022: 2.4884284 2023: 4.8286267 2024: 7.8057563 2025: 11.5057467 2026: 15.5684855 2027: 20.217516 2028: 25.443375 2029: 31.1198366 2030: 38.4871641 2031: 45.4493762 2032: 52.0550758 2033: 58.2509361 2034: 63.9801693 2035: 69.2059408 2036: 73.9264913 2037: 78.1105423 2038: 81.7513667 2039: 84.8703159 2040: 87.477623 2041: 89.5590865 2042: 91.2321032 2043: 92.5302229 2044: 93.5144828 2045: 94.2435182 2046: 94.7511076 2047: 95.1036257 2048: 95.3301232 2049: 95.4772266 2050: 95.5675054
Figure 6: Total number of heat pumps
Scenario203020402050
Consumer Transformation59624824298893224513
System Transformation2024687844231960917
Leading The Way81972922993432766866
NPg Planning Scenario69175424099523568971
Falling Short1888858100311751705
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 Number 2030 2040 2050 Consumer Transformation 2021: 37489 2022: 60496 2023: 77413 2024: 95995 2025: 114619 2026: 156372 2027: 221081 2028: 314858 2029: 441924 2030: 596248 2031: 765830 2032: 931864 2033: 1097830 2034: 1262231 2035: 1454771 2036: 1669376 2037: 1859240 2038: 2047886 2039: 2238883 2040: 2429889 2041: 2605072 2042: 2749066 2043: 2863692 2044: 2949779 2045: 3015398 2046: 3068450 2047: 3118991 2048: 3166960 2049: 3209984 2050: 3224513 System Transformation 2021: 37489 2022: 50677 2023: 61770 2024: 73786 2025: 87361 2026: 103708 2027: 126231 2028: 150254 2029: 175686 2030: 202468 2031: 229157 2032: 249861 2033: 270891 2034: 292543 2035: 319920 2036: 421922 2037: 509682 2038: 599681 2039: 691302 2040: 784423 2041: 891919 2042: 989289 2043: 1092255 2044: 1201967 2045: 1320880 2046: 1462854 2047: 1588838 2048: 1715673 2049: 1842561 2050: 1960917 Leading The Way 2021: 37489 2022: 50600 2023: 103025 2024: 162562 2025: 243436 2026: 348261 2027: 459519 2028: 582052 2029: 696226 2030: 819729 2031: 995154 2032: 1135593 2033: 1276492 2034: 1415215 2035: 1577155 2036: 1812229 2037: 1973560 2038: 2095636 2039: 2211400 2040: 2299343 2041: 2429904 2042: 2482919 2043: 2524877 2044: 2583176 2045: 2631525 2046: 2682923 2047: 2717146 2048: 2743544 2049: 2769537 2050: 2766866 NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 37807 2022: 54255 2023: 73585 2024: 94167 2025: 145981 2026: 216586 2027: 305335 2028: 419489 2029: 545817 2030: 691754 2031: 825970 2032: 969084 2033: 1130282 2034: 1306315 2035: 1496164 2036: 1677062 2037: 1856404 2038: 2039602 2039: 2230016 2040: 2409952 2041: 2598963 2042: 2771448 2043: 2925286 2044: 3059379 2045: 3182376 2046: 3295319 2047: 3409463 2048: 3523789 2049: 3552198 2050: 3568971 Falling Short 2021: 37489 2022: 45319 2023: 52492 2024: 59561 2025: 66655 2026: 80477 2027: 102416 2028: 128177 2029: 157118 2030: 188885 2031: 230415 2032: 272029 2033: 315811 2034: 362622 2035: 413140 2036: 489992 2037: 557646 2038: 632642 2039: 717546 2040: 810031 2041: 922443 2042: 1010025 2043: 1094710 2044: 1176424 2045: 1255360 2046: 1334079 2047: 1414269 2048: 1519187 2049: 1633855 2050: 1751705
Figure 7: Battery storage capacity installed (GW)
Scenario203020402050
Consumer Transformation0.8374089371.6672402942.466123474
System Transformation0.5565578940.8907764881.226409824
Leading The Way0.8486698871.6808658972.531757128
NPg Planning Scenario0.8486698871.6808658972.531757128
Falling Short0.5557442750.709120841.091853179
0 1 2 Installed capacity (GW) 2030 2040 2050 Consumer Transformation 2021: 0.176486037 2022: 0.266229847 2023: 0.355204655 2024: 0.564379614 2025: 0.590742318 2026: 0.609640915 2027: 0.629022271 2028: 0.652518353 2029: 0.673349399 2030: 0.837408937 2031: 0.864796668 2032: 0.899205723 2033: 0.959533798 2034: 1.00485877 2035: 1.123846656 2036: 1.187387324 2037: 1.277064054 2038: 1.419668554 2039: 1.538326817 2040: 1.667240294 2041: 1.743134823 2042: 1.844748879 2043: 1.899406431 2044: 1.96588005 2045: 2.02257269 2046: 2.165602836 2047: 2.228066158 2048: 2.292002824 2049: 2.397502665 2050: 2.466123474 System Transformation 2021: 0.17465433 2022: 0.238141808 2023: 0.243430888 2024: 0.281781699 2025: 0.524944676 2026: 0.530548064 2027: 0.536261032 2028: 0.543278288 2029: 0.549383496 2030: 0.556557894 2031: 0.564258477 2032: 0.576332809 2033: 0.602481624 2034: 0.689135625 2035: 0.700349342 2036: 0.831833035 2037: 0.849319605 2038: 0.864125919 2039: 0.877462788 2040: 0.890776488 2041: 0.984076675 2042: 1.066322647 2043: 1.080168137 2044: 1.133330671 2045: 1.147435742 2046: 1.162178389 2047: 1.177392394 2048: 1.193186909 2049: 1.209535431 2050: 1.226409824 Leading The Way 2021: 0.176172921 2022: 0.420699059 2023: 0.499134735 2024: 0.617693335 2025: 0.6311569 2026: 0.651174201 2027: 0.7481435 2028: 0.773389956 2029: 0.812993818 2030: 0.848669887 2031: 0.886334611 2032: 0.922754017 2033: 1.002598507 2034: 1.173943646 2035: 1.297315745 2036: 1.386683937 2037: 1.440568088 2038: 1.499011941 2039: 1.623689659 2040: 1.680865897 2041: 1.742154567 2042: 1.840905499 2043: 1.903806026 2044: 1.968423739 2045: 2.06825787 2046: 2.187518549 2047: 2.260353256 2048: 2.334921227 2049: 2.451556521 2050: 2.531757128 NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 0.176172921 2022: 0.420699059 2023: 0.499134735 2024: 0.617693335 2025: 0.6311569 2026: 0.651174201 2027: 0.7481435 2028: 0.773389956 2029: 0.812993818 2030: 0.848669887 2031: 0.886334611 2032: 0.922754017 2033: 1.002598507 2034: 1.173943646 2035: 1.297315745 2036: 1.386683937 2037: 1.440568088 2038: 1.499011941 2039: 1.623689659 2040: 1.680865897 2041: 1.742154567 2042: 1.840905499 2043: 1.903806026 2044: 1.968423739 2045: 2.06825787 2046: 2.187518549 2047: 2.260353256 2048: 2.334921227 2049: 2.451556521 2050: 2.531757128 Falling Short 2021: 0.175168927 2022: 0.219938852 2023: 0.246505446 2024: 0.250128672 2025: 0.289166264 2026: 0.494955994 2027: 0.500206693 2028: 0.506669722 2029: 0.511075049 2030: 0.555744275 2031: 0.561532655 2032: 0.567137882 2033: 0.575801414 2034: 0.599715913 2035: 0.608179949 2036: 0.618254654 2037: 0.629128891 2038: 0.641303699 2039: 0.650543029 2040: 0.70912084 2041: 0.718294933 2042: 0.725102488 2043: 0.732479046 2044: 0.739517311 2045: 0.82424904 2046: 0.881275415 2047: 0.889212783 2048: 1.0332461 2049: 1.07970313 2050: 1.091853179
Figure 8: Renewable generation installed (GW)
Scenario203020402050
Consumer Transformation5.85707992210.2259925313.81622686
System Transformation4.5906096046.6146194438.41155267
Leading The Way6.20501819510.3948018913.49899907
NPg Planning Scenario6.20501819510.3948018913.49899907
Falling Short3.8095716464.8413635865.733567309
0 5 10 Renewable generation (GW) 2030 2040 2050 Consumer Transformation 2021: 3.00796539 2022: 3.515046037 2023: 3.620449781 2024: 3.812749717 2025: 4.113260806 2026: 4.424899953 2027: 4.741723296 2028: 5.086592741 2029: 5.449696004 2030: 5.857079922 2031: 6.289918816 2032: 6.722737566 2033: 7.151230128 2034: 7.615143071 2035: 8.052239374 2036: 8.482382009 2037: 8.886782431 2038: 9.304898184 2039: 9.744981658 2040: 10.22599253 2041: 10.70163214 2042: 11.1788584 2043: 11.6571057 2044: 12.08604521 2045: 12.51234436 2046: 12.82961039 2047: 13.07648385 2048: 13.3231861 2049: 13.5674299 2050: 13.81622686 System Transformation 2021: 3.006892389 2022: 3.480425107 2023: 3.538991447 2024: 3.627071692 2025: 3.742744082 2026: 3.875949124 2027: 4.026318959 2028: 4.188621119 2029: 4.362636377 2030: 4.590609604 2031: 4.83776166 2032: 5.092561266 2033: 5.333905021 2034: 5.600930061 2035: 5.819225774 2036: 5.997879065 2037: 6.138315011 2038: 6.279131675 2039: 6.427808931 2040: 6.614619443 2041: 6.801700172 2042: 6.988492539 2043: 7.175513172 2044: 7.347801251 2045: 7.520442856 2046: 7.693573928 2047: 7.867082712 2048: 8.04098553 2049: 8.215291964 2050: 8.41155267 Leading The Way 2021: 3.007160639 2022: 3.534318448 2023: 3.674195275 2024: 3.936792612 2025: 4.295294965 2026: 4.662127581 2027: 5.032440115 2028: 5.412967098 2029: 5.796951484 2030: 6.205018195 2031: 6.653679571 2032: 7.122341404 2033: 7.582374158 2034: 8.031265393 2035: 8.44586419 2036: 8.821226342 2037: 9.172680658 2038: 9.524046339 2039: 9.939541117 2040: 10.39480189 2041: 10.83986076 2042: 11.29389067 2043: 11.74829516 2044: 12.10540268 2045: 12.42368884 2046: 12.67192048 2047: 12.87504101 2048: 13.07850069 2049: 13.28082034 2050: 13.49899907 NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 3.007160639 2022: 3.534318448 2023: 3.674195275 2024: 3.936792612 2025: 4.295294965 2026: 4.662127581 2027: 5.032440115 2028: 5.412967098 2029: 5.796951484 2030: 6.205018195 2031: 6.653679571 2032: 7.122341404 2033: 7.582374158 2034: 8.031265393 2035: 8.44586419 2036: 8.821226342 2037: 9.172680658 2038: 9.524046339 2039: 9.939541117 2040: 10.39480189 2041: 10.83986076 2042: 11.29389067 2043: 11.74829516 2044: 12.10540268 2045: 12.42368884 2046: 12.67192048 2047: 12.87504101 2048: 13.07850069 2049: 13.28082034 2050: 13.49899907 Falling Short 2021: 3.006758264 2022: 3.447245522 2023: 3.462172322 2024: 3.483786231 2025: 3.50757944 2026: 3.545843923 2027: 3.595522115 2028: 3.652636534 2029: 3.717451007 2030: 3.809571646 2031: 3.930150048 2032: 4.067394348 2033: 4.202572882 2034: 4.348805045 2035: 4.465882603 2036: 4.571883648 2037: 4.631683434 2038: 4.691530656 2039: 4.774159251 2040: 4.841363586 2041: 4.931240585 2042: 5.020974064 2043: 5.110558682 2044: 5.199998821 2045: 5.289293998 2046: 5.378439455 2047: 5.4674427 2048: 5.556297556 2049: 5.645006254 2050: 5.733567309
Figure 9: Electric bus and HGV uptake forecast (#)
Scenario203020402050
Consumer Transformation5378.0818658127.8578678266.82095
System Transformation4304.17049638732.4194442309.18745
Leading The Way6094.42872356712.4577971888.81374
NPg Planning Scenario18082.6207578336.65290076.97363
Falling Short1587.72765421418.1866569592.03737
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 Number 2030 2040 2050 Consumer Transformation 2021: 141.4571608 2022: 268.5476759 2023: 410.9407815 2024: 632.8733598 2025: 973.3597892 2026: 1497.118666 2027: 2076.090613 2028: 2863.073515 2029: 3931.260925 2030: 5378.08186 2031: 7327.880107 2032: 9945.188921 2033: 13418.53346 2034: 17954.21966 2035: 23623.4925 2036: 29813.40166 2037: 36494.59665 2038: 43556.49554 2039: 50748.82752 2040: 58127.85786 2041: 65236.64446 2042: 70878.51539 2043: 74264.17381 2044: 75118.99166 2045: 75880.15588 2046: 76546.69216 2047: 77213.42077 2048: 77633.78517 2049: 78143.73296 2050: 78266.82095 System Transformation 2021: 141.4571608 2022: 243.6587848 2023: 352.4074258 2024: 511.0550454 2025: 737.8371061 2026: 1063.88894 2027: 1533.835174 2028: 2212.170688 2029: 3192.018241 2030: 4304.170496 2031: 5785.822305 2032: 7754.375638 2033: 10341.35967 2034: 13626.6662 2035: 17788.34675 2036: 22035.15591 2037: 26314.84737 2038: 30569.45085 2039: 34735.39392 2040: 38732.41944 2041: 42480.02666 2042: 45763.50639 2043: 47937.2696 2044: 47631.43841 2045: 46977.15382 2046: 46186.64951 2047: 45297.52512 2048: 44331.63021 2049: 43334.81843 2050: 42309.18745 Leading The Way 2021: 141.4571608 2022: 318.6491878 2023: 489.2781377 2024: 755.4697386 2025: 1160.974087 2026: 1778.810318 2027: 2449.609115 2028: 3343.520366 2029: 4529.23153 2030: 6094.428723 2031: 8143.848142 2032: 10821.44116 2033: 14282.48528 2034: 18703.93596 2035: 24099.67683 2036: 29900.96599 2037: 36114.3799 2038: 42720.43277 2039: 49602.6969 2040: 56712.45779 2041: 63522.50266 2042: 69777.3239 2043: 74657.66526 2044: 75841.8712 2045: 75487.2086 2046: 75002.04641 2047: 74411.90907 2048: 73709.63745 2049: 72904.74336 2050: 71888.81374 NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 194.9805655 2022: 474.3573882 2023: 874.991904 2024: 1396.884113 2025: 2040.034015 2026: 3551.83516 2027: 5911.994406 2028: 9120.511753 2029: 13177.3872 2030: 18082.62075 2031: 23808.19894 2032: 29946.0562 2033: 36474.95013 2034: 43359.14097 2035: 50598.62872 2036: 57284.74678 2037: 63422.34915 2038: 69011.43583 2039: 73982.87011 2040: 78336.652 2041: 81805.69214 2042: 84563.29232 2043: 86609.45252 2044: 87984.67696 2045: 88688.96565 2046: 89091.41705 2047: 89407.24573 2048: 89636.45169 2049: 89859.69432 2050: 90076.97363 Falling Short 2021: 141.4571608 2022: 140.9680333 2023: 193.1721394 2024: 264.4504125 2025: 361.486128 2026: 486.1230586 2027: 658.2780857 2028: 897.4212169 2029: 1231.25923 2030: 1587.727654 2031: 2054.169084 2032: 2668.093691 2033: 3478.946703 2034: 4553.10164 2035: 5977.392114 2036: 7862.521849 2037: 10341.23788 2038: 13171.91625 2039: 16381.22814 2040: 21418.18665 2041: 26881.76247 2042: 32815.18974 2043: 39224.55777 2044: 46022.78937 2045: 53550.64254 2046: 59488.81947 2047: 63661.33901 2048: 65521.9897 2049: 67504.91381 2050: 69592.03737

Network data

Figure 10: Annual peak demand (GW)
Scenario203020402050
Consumer Transformation7.32751521510.5242054810.91550803
System Transformation7.0836227169.75912106311.32225044
Leading The Way7.1577339439.8266004449.678162076
NPg Planning Scenario no customer flexibility - - -7.96031194911.4036314612.74274774
Falling Short7.3517330229.81515358112.21856536
NPg Planning Scenario7.74600625110.873014912.19631847
0 5 10 Annual peak demand (GW) 2030 2040 2050 Consumer Transformation 2021: 5.986805647 2022: 6.443320388 2023: 6.413478686 2024: 6.412530845 2025: 6.439425158 2026: 6.524668399 2027: 6.640457613 2028: 6.795809895 2029: 7.011469151 2030: 7.327515215 2031: 7.677471209 2032: 8.05017194 2033: 8.423106636 2034: 8.774956104 2035: 9.283153009 2036: 9.610745674 2037: 9.880978823 2038: 10.11582279 2039: 10.32545727 2040: 10.52420548 2041: 10.68327069 2042: 10.79077209 2043: 10.85072888 2044: 10.88371259 2045: 10.90572498 2046: 10.92089958 2047: 10.9320075 2048: 10.93955945 2049: 10.93706496 2050: 10.91550803 System Transformation 2021: 6.003826146 2022: 6.573592377 2023: 6.560536283 2024: 6.534749593 2025: 6.541368585 2026: 6.591646392 2027: 6.669236535 2028: 6.767944148 2029: 6.889303553 2030: 7.083622716 2031: 7.251646995 2032: 7.437330269 2033: 7.648165036 2034: 7.878513967 2035: 8.289743528 2036: 8.63345416 2037: 8.954074667 2038: 9.252283116 2039: 9.519505769 2040: 9.759121063 2041: 9.993651255 2042: 10.18592316 2043: 10.34485 2044: 10.47833145 2045: 10.61527331 2046: 10.77869834 2047: 10.91328715 2048: 11.05474549 2049: 11.19449867 2050: 11.32225044 Leading The Way 2021: 5.98654234 2022: 6.352269558 2023: 6.271905459 2024: 6.241979631 2025: 6.255064597 2026: 6.327752799 2027: 6.454056255 2028: 6.63888329 2029: 6.847997323 2030: 7.157733943 2031: 7.543521279 2032: 7.890694231 2033: 8.23366803 2034: 8.551881211 2035: 9.002390966 2036: 9.315933458 2037: 9.520159362 2038: 9.659287742 2039: 9.769314247 2040: 9.826600444 2041: 9.912128342 2042: 9.913343439 2043: 9.89470869 2044: 9.87688902 2045: 9.849806677 2046: 9.832369347 2047: 9.807699267 2048: 9.771163802 2049: 9.731866594 2050: 9.678162076 NPg Planning Scenario no customer flexibility 2021: 5.97446741 2022: 6.550347841 2023: 6.610404709 2024: 6.659772545 2025: 6.744214469 2026: 6.865795718 2027: 7.033066331 2028: 7.255989124 2029: 7.533729478 2030: 7.960311949 2031: 8.287769807 2032: 8.601690381 2033: 8.949517356 2034: 9.294016855 2035: 9.856308625 2036: 10.22956746 2037: 10.55671558 2038: 10.86983089 2039: 11.16076592 2040: 11.40363146 2041: 11.61182286 2042: 11.81064179 2043: 11.99697571 2044: 12.15650857 2045: 12.30477686 2046: 12.44332471 2047: 12.58230194 2048: 12.71579503 2049: 12.73536654 2050: 12.74274774 Falling Short 2021: 6.004237499 2022: 6.787883478 2023: 6.877307554 2024: 6.914595862 2025: 6.946691894 2026: 6.96698956 2027: 7.014689726 2028: 7.087384714 2029: 7.179699302 2030: 7.351733022 2031: 7.486263669 2032: 7.632058221 2033: 7.795232514 2034: 7.97425339 2035: 8.349377288 2036: 8.622649519 2037: 8.895174306 2038: 9.188153329 2039: 9.499498827 2040: 9.815153581 2041: 10.15728728 2042: 10.44475807 2043: 10.71573195 2044: 10.96867491 2045: 11.2058214 2046: 11.39728926 2047: 11.58078599 2048: 11.77958485 2049: 11.99391158 2050: 12.21856536 NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 5.969345854 2022: 6.539902741 2023: 6.593133939 2024: 6.631402589 2025: 6.698548432 2026: 6.800633682 2027: 6.9422274 2028: 7.128464925 2029: 7.366552236 2030: 7.746006251 2031: 8.026759613 2032: 8.298471786 2033: 8.611801059 2034: 8.922868195 2035: 9.442773932 2036: 9.777352253 2037: 10.07674483 2038: 10.36909878 2039: 10.64393491 2040: 10.8730149 2041: 11.0730983 2042: 11.26565803 2043: 11.44772865 2044: 11.60444508 2045: 11.75156343 2046: 11.89032587 2047: 12.03013433 2048: 12.16511665 2049: 12.1867239 2050: 12.19631847
Figure 11: Network peak demand breakdown — Planning Scenario (GW)
Scenario203020402050
Domestic2.2583808522.2765913192.3598171
I & C3.9872935894.0180242053.951210743
Heat pumps - domestic0.5357009791.9853676722.804302064
Heat pumps - I & C0.1283702850.3959746130.730448154
EV0.712466621.723261841.788852192
0 1 2 3 4 Annual gross peak demand (GW) 2030 2040 2050 Domestic 2021: 2.44804489 2022: 2.30045375 2023: 2.282730035 2024: 2.271687518 2025: 2.259112924 2026: 2.250734876 2027: 2.251640353 2028: 2.253449693 2029: 2.255696586 2030: 2.258380852 2031: 2.257618407 2032: 2.25749484 2033: 2.257472614 2034: 2.256858745 2035: 2.25703396 2036: 2.258726245 2037: 2.262629345 2038: 2.267762894 2039: 2.27165651 2040: 2.276591319 2041: 2.283158361 2042: 2.289491181 2043: 2.29585808 2044: 2.302260011 2045: 2.308775739 2046: 2.315172777 2047: 2.323174832 2048: 2.333783393 2049: 2.344509241 2050: 2.3598171 I & C 2021: 3.429756652 2022: 4.11868925 2023: 4.125933013 2024: 4.090915931 2025: 4.055751647 2026: 4.023753297 2027: 3.994409674 2028: 3.967749158 2029: 3.944009967 2030: 3.987293589 2031: 3.968673894 2032: 3.951345855 2033: 3.935202606 2034: 3.920159679 2035: 4.07268023 2036: 4.060050682 2037: 4.048329794 2038: 4.037466301 2039: 4.027385676 2040: 4.018024205 2041: 4.009327567 2042: 4.001238825 2043: 3.993693468 2044: 3.986655411 2045: 3.980034983 2046: 3.973782269 2047: 3.96783586 2048: 3.962133721 2049: 3.956613151 2050: 3.951210743 Heat pumps - domestic 2021: 0.022111132 2022: 0.028346995 2023: 0.035537781 2024: 0.042972142 2025: 0.06990346 2026: 0.115262902 2027: 0.17636371 2028: 0.265356592 2029: 0.383844693 2030: 0.535700979 2031: 0.660455637 2032: 0.78490612 2033: 0.936808525 2034: 1.093775289 2035: 1.255603194 2036: 1.410752309 2037: 1.56415077 2038: 1.715806276 2039: 1.866065731 2040: 1.985367672 2041: 2.101710144 2042: 2.218632561 2043: 2.333391683 2044: 2.431815352 2045: 2.528367834 2046: 2.622737534 2047: 2.720361829 2048: 2.815126544 2049: 2.81154971 2050: 2.804302064 Heat pumps - I & C 2021: 0.043292511 2022: 0.043208728 2023: 0.046794229 2024: 0.053643422 2025: 0.061635803 2026: 0.071064267 2027: 0.081158117 2028: 0.091553335 2029: 0.108783046 2030: 0.128370285 2031: 0.150930441 2032: 0.170150947 2033: 0.19313254 2034: 0.215331195 2035: 0.237156629 2036: 0.259413608 2037: 0.289716359 2038: 0.324044832 2039: 0.362549933 2040: 0.395974613 2041: 0.428042093 2042: 0.463023435 2043: 0.500623612 2044: 0.537891025 2045: 0.576971313 2046: 0.61760558 2047: 0.656835484 2048: 0.694153803 2049: 0.718310395 2050: 0.730448154 EV 2021: 0.024842549 2022: 0.046136755 2023: 0.096555752 2024: 0.163337858 2025: 0.239289568 2026: 0.316425468 2027: 0.398603219 2028: 0.48781939 2029: 0.583668431 2030: 0.71246662 2031: 0.827292075 2032: 0.935113853 2033: 1.052476511 2034: 1.163335827 2035: 1.310771781 2036: 1.440704354 2037: 1.528647256 2038: 1.607793184 2039: 1.669876589 2040: 1.72326184 2041: 1.755242272 2042: 1.7797155 2043: 1.796549778 2044: 1.807929751 2045: 1.813011805 2046: 1.812860442 2047: 1.810192045 2048: 1.804816528 2049: 1.797320849 2050: 1.788852192
Figure 12: Network energy consumption breakdown — Planning Scenario (TWh)
Scenario203020402050
Domestic10.9809538811.0820545711.48031471
I & C21.0262585520.4425833720.01548504
Heat pumps - domestic2.55687493610.0015565214.32339795
Heat pumps - I & C0.4747261481.5417784112.889564175
EV4.50990588611.3668329411.77576029
0 5 10 15 20 Network energy consumption (TWh) 2030 2040 2050 Domestic 2021: 11.82940951 2022: 11.11480695 2023: 11.02975752 2024: 10.98005756 2025: 10.92662177 2026: 10.89493499 2027: 10.91112065 2028: 10.9346987 2029: 10.95770474 2030: 10.98095388 2031: 10.98524333 2032: 10.9897383 2033: 10.99016539 2034: 10.98757967 2035: 10.98874016 2036: 10.99720128 2037: 11.01632818 2038: 11.04057705 2039: 11.05874631 2040: 11.08205457 2041: 11.11332474 2042: 11.14345154 2043: 11.17374368 2044: 11.20420571 2045: 11.23522164 2046: 11.26565763 2047: 11.30391832 2048: 11.35488494 2049: 11.40642849 2050: 11.48031471 I & C 2021: 21.16740887 2022: 22.09891431 2023: 22.00995133 2024: 21.83823637 2025: 21.67577545 2026: 21.52235062 2027: 21.37751431 2028: 21.2410094 2029: 21.11242531 2030: 21.02625855 2031: 20.91286899 2032: 20.80686522 2033: 20.70792406 2034: 20.61562311 2035: 20.78974067 2036: 20.70962723 2037: 20.6352283 2038: 20.56622504 2039: 20.50214489 2040: 20.44258337 2041: 20.38719753 2042: 20.33563029 2043: 20.28747518 2044: 20.24255093 2045: 20.20022447 2046: 20.16020957 2047: 20.12212018 2048: 20.08556638 2049: 20.05015413 2050: 20.01548504 Heat pumps - domestic 2021: 0.101524589 2022: 0.144439742 2023: 0.193901169 2024: 0.246640844 2025: 0.379577879 2026: 0.600250199 2027: 0.896798633 2028: 1.318921888 2029: 1.850997185 2030: 2.556874936 2031: 3.136454622 2032: 3.752770884 2033: 4.474534343 2034: 5.242070119 2035: 6.10560216 2036: 6.908478464 2037: 7.684725688 2038: 8.473586885 2039: 9.267835422 2040: 10.00155652 2041: 10.74029941 2042: 11.42085812 2043: 12.02731078 2044: 12.55216823 2045: 13.03066511 2046: 13.46912779 2047: 13.9214698 2048: 14.36223076 2049: 14.36500733 2050: 14.32339795 Heat pumps - I & C 2021: 0.157095627 2022: 0.168029617 2023: 0.18721429 2024: 0.212369321 2025: 0.241500745 2026: 0.273817238 2027: 0.308790663 2028: 0.34502116 2029: 0.404314607 2030: 0.474726148 2031: 0.556748732 2032: 0.632311365 2033: 0.716452522 2034: 0.803857694 2035: 0.892530732 2036: 0.983598678 2037: 1.102289978 2038: 1.239213152 2039: 1.394676107 2040: 1.541778411 2041: 1.688763089 2042: 1.839928561 2043: 1.992905991 2044: 2.14525653 2045: 2.299022946 2046: 2.453884996 2047: 2.602729916 2048: 2.743632963 2049: 2.842714398 2050: 2.889564175 EV 2021: 0.126970777 2022: 0.242051376 2023: 0.512078037 2024: 0.879890438 2025: 1.316415547 2026: 1.777499309 2027: 2.3007752 2028: 2.921536659 2029: 3.602497926 2030: 4.509905886 2031: 5.339484476 2032: 6.110125706 2033: 6.89353383 2034: 7.63616107 2035: 8.621538503 2036: 9.48901029 2037: 10.08517445 2038: 10.60550166 2039: 11.01482914 2040: 11.36683294 2041: 11.57773407 2042: 11.7370646 2043: 11.84564189 2044: 11.91835768 2045: 11.95001337 2046: 11.94681927 2047: 11.92653725 2048: 11.88796692 2049: 11.83530022 2050: 11.77576029
Figure 13: Annual network energy consumption (TWh)
Scenario203020402050
Consumer Transformation37.3660040155.9923416459.1998397
System Transformation35.5276527847.6437979552.12057449
Leading The Way36.1840264852.5405650253.75379989
NPg Planning Scenario41.3749722961.2478942568.57801292
Falling Short37.1587438247.8952403858.6698601
0 20 40 60 Energy consumption (TWh) 2030 2040 2050 Consumer Transformation 2021: 33.43466416 2022: 33.23377937 2023: 32.95478299 2024: 32.94145133 2025: 33.08238045 2026: 33.52001789 2027: 34.09535453 2028: 34.88992929 2029: 35.99859514 2030: 37.36600401 2031: 39.2509837 2032: 41.27566593 2033: 43.33648875 2034: 45.33550068 2035: 47.65975215 2036: 49.66879568 2037: 51.42138712 2038: 53.03978581 2039: 54.53570185 2040: 55.99234164 2041: 57.23768831 2042: 58.11107252 2043: 58.57101837 2044: 58.83208366 2045: 59.00813735 2046: 59.1215151 2047: 59.21749481 2048: 59.29371378 2049: 59.33646541 2050: 59.1998397 System Transformation 2021: 33.43558567 2022: 33.75834916 2023: 33.54184727 2024: 33.37592049 2025: 33.36419616 2026: 33.56080773 2027: 33.88381677 2028: 34.32175691 2029: 34.88899105 2030: 35.52765278 2031: 36.34801364 2032: 37.28748882 2033: 38.36915688 2034: 39.56332956 2035: 41.09364538 2036: 42.64198138 2037: 44.10268546 2038: 45.43967265 2039: 46.61599399 2040: 47.64379795 2041: 48.59662621 2042: 49.35479848 2043: 49.89466967 2044: 50.23523039 2045: 50.5640014 2046: 50.94980362 2047: 51.23585846 2048: 51.54737867 2049: 51.85287765 2050: 52.12057449 Leading The Way 2021: 33.43375106 2022: 32.77733992 2023: 32.22142352 2024: 32.03461489 2025: 32.07032952 2026: 32.41502781 2027: 32.98519475 2028: 33.85619664 2029: 34.8904495 2030: 36.18402648 2031: 38.22802534 2032: 40.16701514 2033: 42.11739202 2034: 43.98225568 2035: 46.03215186 2036: 48.00282679 2037: 49.46163426 2038: 50.64180493 2039: 51.70516519 2040: 52.54056502 2041: 53.5372376 2042: 54.0840127 2043: 54.43176293 2044: 54.51142989 2045: 54.48712212 2046: 54.47154279 2047: 54.37922336 2048: 54.22987807 2049: 54.06261855 2050: 53.75379989 NPg Planning Scenario 2021: 33.40503555 2022: 33.82164533 2023: 34.03005886 2024: 34.3110803 2025: 34.76348244 2026: 35.45166686 2027: 36.42195228 2028: 37.71293353 2029: 39.28087244 2030: 41.37497229 2031: 43.29366663 2032: 45.18812174 2033: 47.20681545 2034: 49.22864071 2035: 51.85161932 2036: 54.08770224 2037: 56.03417942 2038: 57.9104878 2039: 59.65784184 2040: 61.24789425 2041: 62.63593159 2042: 63.86516955 2043: 64.91904702 2044: 65.80565075 2045: 66.55681841 2046: 67.19682274 2047: 67.83146033 2048: 68.43663282 2049: 68.54822159 2050: 68.57801292 Falling Short 2021: 33.43701218 2022: 34.84439246 2023: 35.16881298 2024: 35.35561899 2025: 35.52168622 2026: 35.61882631 2027: 35.8357711 2028: 36.17483082 2029: 36.61683147 2030: 37.15874382 2031: 37.74987172 2032: 38.40967609 2033: 39.1606707 2034: 39.99475081 2035: 41.21084041 2036: 42.41981929 2037: 43.67678309 2038: 45.02109709 2039: 46.43382307 2040: 47.89524038 2041: 49.42349685 2042: 50.8051905 2043: 52.14539563 2044: 53.42837637 2045: 54.69967921 2046: 55.68924769 2047: 56.5613165 2048: 57.22036048 2049: 57.92868641 2050: 58.6698601
Figure 14: Network annual fuel consumption breakdown — Planning Scenario (GWh-yr)
Scenario203020402050
Natural gas40.2781341216.357481610.08463351
Solid fuel0.414690950.1063968530.008943769
Petroleum40.536435165.3353057570.106090039
Hydrogen0.1333251412.0186578553.947998708
Bioenergy2.1803070730.965203870.606035703
Electricity43.9155421865.0504554472.94932022
0 20 40 60 Fuel consumption (GWh-yr) 2030 2040 2050 Natural gas 2021: 53.76204925 2022: 53.13282085 2023: 52.32792356 2024: 51.48896951 2025: 50.31887711 2026: 48.88987008 2027: 47.18171055 2028: 44.94243092 2029: 42.64353589 2030: 40.27813412 2031: 38.38003155 2032: 36.35306385 2033: 34.04627562 2034: 31.41597747 2035: 28.77558852 2036: 26.26783741 2037: 23.86190039 2038: 21.43795253 2039: 18.94160297 2040: 16.35748161 2041: 13.61294144 2042: 11.14976973 2043: 8.977851094 2044: 6.891499162 2045: 5.108797398 2046: 3.495933276 2047: 1.916921189 2048: 0.665254067 2049: 0.349257581 2050: 0.08463351 Solid fuel 2021: 0.815015517 2022: 0.778931491 2023: 0.738258594 2024: 0.696961522 2025: 0.660637499 2026: 0.61288972 2027: 0.555003654 2028: 0.492340599 2029: 0.453079198 2030: 0.41469095 2031: 0.380924841 2032: 0.347443149 2033: 0.315694365 2034: 0.28420752 2035: 0.254189982 2036: 0.225072745 2037: 0.195873211 2038: 0.166761976 2039: 0.13659035 2040: 0.106396853 2041: 0.076128352 2042: 0.045945238 2043: 0.017155439 2044: 0.014382823 2045: 0.013206738 2046: 0.012091649 2047: 0.010995857 2048: 0.010025978 2049: 0.009457742 2050: 0.008943769 Petroleum 2021: 75.0809831 2022: 74.04434804 2023: 71.49879131 2024: 68.65574047 2025: 65.02666729 2026: 60.28360617 2027: 55.48321389 2028: 50.47066188 2029: 45.40402314 2030: 40.53643516 2031: 35.70762412 2032: 30.5554031 2033: 25.83388586 2034: 21.57096479 2035: 17.76077072 2036: 14.57126362 2037: 11.76454965 2038: 9.307490012 2039: 7.171547064 2040: 5.335305757 2041: 3.845453143 2042: 2.644708118 2043: 1.694406957 2044: 1.076805078 2045: 0.667724326 2046: 0.438689889 2047: 0.272405402 2048: 0.195002807 2049: 0.142304059 2050: 0.106090039 Hydrogen 2021: 0.005774827 2022: 0.008665637 2023: 0.010189035 2024: 0.012560961 2025: 0.015949707 2026: 0.018421935 2027: 0.021838353 2028: 0.026750654 2029: 0.031719783 2030: 0.133325141 2031: 0.237549969 2032: 0.346393774 2033: 0.486893161 2034: 0.645409579 2035: 0.829372969 2036: 1.032309103 2037: 1.222628164 2038: 1.435789166 2039: 1.674208179 2040: 2.018657855 2041: 2.452796546 2042: 2.829535777 2043: 3.094175924 2044: 3.373691139 2045: 3.565550821 2046: 3.681565293 2047: 3.791104956 2048: 3.867442911 2049: 3.944362693 2050: 3.947998708 Bioenergy 2021: 3.637258777 2022: 3.512886537 2023: 3.377818664 2024: 3.238947247 2025: 3.107587944 2026: 2.929259011 2027: 2.72324741 2028: 2.501197541 2029: 2.33927524 2030: 2.180307073 2031: 2.055237162 2032: 1.931170595 2033: 1.813811937 2034: 1.682571241 2035: 1.50542601 2036: 1.399214365 2037: 1.292510304 2038: 1.18625795 2039: 1.07555904 2040: 0.96520387 2041: 0.854827005 2042: 0.744434673 2043: 0.639614362 2044: 0.624410981 2045: 0.617114152 2046: 0.614578287 2047: 0.612069408 2048: 0.610021021 2049: 0.608027412 2050: 0.606035703 Electricity 2021: 36.09422741 2022: 35.94381194 2023: 36.06186494 2024: 36.35850758 2025: 36.83997375 2026: 37.57741574 2027: 38.61975801 2028: 40.00863838 2029: 41.6935327 2030: 43.91554218 2031: 45.98192321 2032: 48.02241182 2033: 50.19708776 2034: 52.37522558 2035: 54.92243512 2036: 57.33254914 2037: 59.43050057 2038: 61.45301793 2039: 63.33642689 2040: 65.05045544 2041: 66.54649409 2042: 67.87146549 2043: 69.00722751 2044: 69.96278886 2045: 70.77192916 2046: 71.46123151 2047: 72.14521235 2048: 72.79739976 2049: 72.91740309 2050: 72.94932022
Figure 15: Additional industrial peak demand breakdown — Planning Scenario (MW)
Scenario203020402050
Electric HGVs111.7057902437.7397414517.9887337
Electric Buses12.0881359536.0555088243.69947954
Electrolysers0.42450407611.9251728712.11122672
Large industry Fuel Switching192.4801016427.1141316614.5349297
0 200 400 600 Peak demand (MW) 2030 2040 2050 Electric HGVs 2021: 0.970320408 2022: 2.296133119 2023: 4.182380833 2024: 6.629063552 2025: 9.636181274 2026: 18.92724577 2027: 34.05411233 2028: 54.74241404 2029: 80.71777098 2030: 111.7057902 2031: 147.3735931 2032: 182.6555328 2033: 217.5159147 2034: 251.9188192 2035: 285.8281016 2036: 321.2535062 2037: 354.1588592 2038: 384.5426737 2039: 412.4034634 2040: 437.7397414 2041: 457.8022398 2042: 474.2792513 2043: 487.1715774 2044: 496.4800197 2045: 502.2053798 2046: 505.3774884 2047: 508.5418463 2048: 511.6984852 2049: 514.8474371 2050: 517.9887337 Electric Buses 2021: 0.327798974 2022: 0.771129884 2023: 1.400748411 2024: 2.216654553 2025: 3.218848311 2026: 4.465626763 2027: 5.998214747 2028: 7.794343412 2029: 9.831741621 2030: 12.08813595 2031: 14.4155647 2032: 16.80463947 2033: 19.19234813 2034: 21.48864095 2035: 23.70003585 2036: 26.45154739 2037: 29.11244531 2038: 31.68262295 2039: 33.99700861 2040: 36.05550882 2041: 37.81562735 2042: 39.27728117 2043: 40.4404544 2044: 41.4135138 2045: 42.19637389 2046: 42.7897778 2047: 43.19242992 2048: 43.40417925 2049: 43.5731192 2050: 43.69947954 Electrolysers 2026: 0.087711001 2027: 0.161402428 2028: 0.211527202 2029: 0.24415294 2030: 0.424504076 2031: 0.951395745 2032: 1.839858871 2033: 3.058117336 2034: 4.562311338 2035: 5.678149616 2036: 7.06511481 2037: 8.445586965 2038: 9.714584031 2039: 10.84977326 2040: 11.92517287 2041: 12.69693608 2042: 13.15832224 2043: 13.37366598 2044: 13.39245849 2045: 13.26772675 2046: 12.99508948 2047: 12.7263799 2048: 12.46875204 2049: 12.2605963 2050: 12.11122672 Large industry Fuel Switching 2021: 14.16801382 2022: 28.33602763 2023: 42.50404145 2024: 56.67205527 2025: 70.84006909 2026: 95.16807558 2027: 119.4960821 2028: 143.8240886 2029: 168.1520951 2030: 192.4801016 2031: 213.9288287 2032: 235.3775559 2033: 256.8262831 2034: 278.2750102 2035: 299.7237374 2036: 325.2018162 2037: 350.679895 2038: 376.1579739 2039: 401.6360527 2040: 427.1141316 2041: 464.5982912 2042: 502.0824508 2043: 539.5666105 2044: 577.0507701 2045: 614.5349297 2046: 614.5349297 2047: 614.5349297 2048: 614.5349297 2049: 614.5349297 2050: 614.5349297
Figure 16: Additional industrial energy consumption breakdown — Planning Scenario (GWh)
Scenario203020402050
Electric HGVs1459.3373925718.6827246767.064862
Electric Buses366.91550141094.4057171326.425887
Electrolysers3.718655704104.4645144106.0943461
Large industry Fuel Switching1686.125693741.5197925383.325984
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 Energy consumption (GWh) 2030 2040 2050 Electric HGVs 2021: 12.67637829 2022: 29.99694923 2023: 54.63910802 2024: 86.60285467 2025: 125.8881892 2026: 247.2677327 2027: 444.886871 2028: 715.1612427 2029: 1054.506317 2030: 1459.337392 2031: 1925.305704 2032: 2386.233053 2033: 2841.653124 2034: 3291.096657 2035: 3734.091452 2036: 4196.893045 2037: 4626.77239 2038: 5023.710066 2039: 5387.686651 2040: 5718.682724 2041: 5980.781529 2042: 6196.039117 2043: 6364.46596 2044: 6486.072529 2045: 6560.869297 2046: 6602.310091 2047: 6643.64963 2048: 6684.888327 2049: 6726.026599 2050: 6767.064862 Electric Buses 2021: 9.949799151 2022: 23.40638038 2023: 42.51741606 2024: 67.28290616 2025: 97.70285071 2026: 135.5467617 2027: 182.0659513 2028: 236.5844852 2029: 298.4263597 2030: 366.9155014 2031: 437.5607764 2032: 510.0772148 2033: 582.5521872 2034: 652.2523821 2035: 719.3756403 2036: 802.8932511 2037: 883.6604346 2038: 961.6739534 2039: 1031.923327 2040: 1094.405717 2041: 1147.831223 2042: 1192.197323 2043: 1227.503535 2044: 1257.039153 2045: 1280.801585 2046: 1298.813386 2047: 1311.035229 2048: 1317.462532 2049: 1322.590426 2050: 1326.425887 Electrolysers 2026: 0.768348366 2027: 1.413885271 2028: 1.852978286 2029: 2.138779753 2030: 3.718655704 2031: 8.334226726 2032: 16.11716371 2033: 26.78910786 2034: 39.96584732 2035: 49.74059063 2036: 61.89040573 2037: 73.98334181 2038: 85.09975611 2039: 95.04401376 2040: 104.4645144 2041: 111.22516 2042: 115.2669028 2043: 117.153314 2044: 117.3179363 2045: 116.2252863 2046: 113.8369839 2047: 111.4830879 2048: 109.2262679 2049: 107.4028236 2050: 106.0943461 Large industry Fuel Switching 2021: 124.111801 2022: 248.2236021 2023: 372.3354031 2024: 496.4472042 2025: 620.5590052 2026: 833.6723421 2027: 1046.785679 2028: 1259.899016 2029: 1473.012353 2030: 1686.12569 2031: 1874.01654 2032: 2061.90739 2033: 2249.79824 2034: 2437.689089 2035: 2625.579939 2036: 2848.76791 2037: 3071.955881 2038: 3295.143851 2039: 3518.331822 2040: 3741.519792 2041: 4069.881031 2042: 4398.242269 2043: 4726.603508 2044: 5054.964746 2045: 5383.325984 2046: 5383.325984 2047: 5383.325984 2048: 5383.325984 2049: 5383.325984 2050: 5383.325984

About this visualisation

These figures have been created to show some of the parameters calculated in Northern Powergrid's 2022 DFES.