The following graphs are supplemental to Northern Powergrid's DFES 2024 interactive map . Each graph can be downloaded as a scalable-vector-graphic (SVG). The underlying data for each graph is also available as a CSV file.
Low carbon technologies
Figure 1: Electric vehicle uptake forecast (#)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Electric Engagement 1401426 4064963 4781607 Hydrogen Evolution 1401426 4064963 5050825 Holistic Transition 1401426 4064963 4512390 NPg Reference Scenario 1751455 4371931 5075143 Counterfactual 1170968 3491118 4330477
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1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
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Electric Engagement 2023: 153318 2024: 214646 2025: 305265 2026: 429877 2027: 592111 2028: 823823 2029: 1102746 2030: 1401426 2031: 1692952 2032: 1980784 2033: 2260174 2034: 2529934 2035: 2821060 2036: 3104471 2037: 3372408 2038: 3623689 2039: 3853701 2040: 4064963 2041: 4200089 2042: 4317680 2043: 4419258 2044: 4506781 2045: 4580279 2046: 4636448 2047: 4683300 2048: 4721947 2049: 4754513 2050: 4781607
Hydrogen Evolution 2023: 153318 2024: 214646 2025: 305265 2026: 429877 2027: 592111 2028: 823823 2029: 1102746 2030: 1401426 2031: 1692952 2032: 1980784 2033: 2260174 2034: 2529934 2035: 2821060 2036: 3104471 2037: 3372408 2038: 3623689 2039: 3853701 2040: 4064963 2041: 4246885 2042: 4406242 2043: 4544987 2044: 4665378 2045: 4767398 2046: 4846250 2047: 4912320 2048: 4966953 2049: 5012818 2050: 5050825
Holistic Transition 2023: 153318 2024: 214646 2025: 305265 2026: 429877 2027: 592111 2028: 823823 2029: 1102746 2030: 1401426 2031: 1692952 2032: 1980784 2033: 2260174 2034: 2529934 2035: 2821060 2036: 3104471 2037: 3372408 2038: 3623689 2039: 3853701 2040: 4064963 2041: 4153292 2042: 4229118 2043: 4293529 2044: 4348186 2045: 4393157 2046: 4426644 2047: 4454282 2048: 4476941 2049: 4496208 2050: 4512390
NPg Reference Scenario 2023: 153318 2024: 232928 2025: 378060 2026: 592280 2027: 841285 2028: 1113833 2029: 1404309 2030: 1751455 2031: 2085300 2032: 2409491 2033: 2720667 2034: 3016036 2035: 3289444 2036: 3549426 2037: 3788681 2038: 4006483 2039: 4199720 2040: 4371931 2041: 4513660 2042: 4633301 2043: 4734280 2044: 4819305 2045: 4889392 2046: 4940205 2047: 4982563 2048: 5017940 2049: 5048518 2050: 5075143
Counterfactual 2023: 153318 2024: 199998 2025: 258365 2026: 352923 2027: 496105 2028: 689395 2029: 917668 2030: 1170968 2031: 1424562 2032: 1682280 2033: 1940796 2034: 2198788 2035: 2453674 2036: 2688475 2037: 2910458 2038: 3119118 2039: 3312357 2040: 3491118 2041: 3644567 2042: 3780146 2043: 3898538 2044: 4001265 2045: 4088324 2046: 4155261 2047: 4211191 2048: 4258233 2049: 4297504 2050: 4330477
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Figure 2: Electric vehicle penetration of total car stock (%)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 NPg Reference Scenario 38 88 99
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EVs (%)
2030
2040
2050
NPg Reference Scenario 2023: 3% 2024: 5% 2025: 9% 2026: 13% 2027: 19% 2028: 25% 2029: 31% 2030: 38% 2031: 45% 2032: 52% 2033: 58% 2034: 64% 2035: 69% 2036: 74% 2037: 78% 2038: 82% 2039: 85% 2040: 88% 2041: 91% 2042: 93% 2043: 94% 2044: 96% 2045: 97% 2046: 98% 2047: 98% 2048: 99% 2049: 99% 2050: 99%
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Figure 3: Total number of heat pumps (#)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Electric Engagement 268701 1293580 2613047 Hydrogen Evolution 171463 1090601 2192379 Holistic Transition 263963 1269479 2584160 NPg Reference Scenario 349733 1372860 2614517 Counterfactual 124562 434501 659448
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500,000
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Number
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Electric Engagement 2023: 53264 2024: 67004 2025: 87231 2026: 114910 2027: 156237 2028: 201083 2029: 240632 2030: 268701 2031: 290782 2032: 311470 2033: 331294 2034: 351973 2035: 412836 2036: 597647 2037: 781383 2038: 959638 2039: 1131567 2040: 1293580 2041: 1447275 2042: 1586095 2043: 1722910 2044: 1865639 2045: 2007231 2046: 2144805 2047: 2273911 2048: 2395683 2049: 2517385 2050: 2613047
Hydrogen Evolution 2023: 53264 2024: 62270 2025: 79374 2026: 98208 2027: 119422 2028: 137338 2029: 154056 2030: 171463 2031: 189009 2032: 206553 2033: 223662 2034: 241609 2035: 295731 2036: 460459 2037: 624409 2038: 785091 2039: 941633 2040: 1090601 2041: 1238821 2042: 1384351 2043: 1529557 2044: 1673538 2045: 1798414 2046: 1897741 2047: 1985845 2048: 2070109 2049: 2142572 2050: 2192379
Holistic Transition 2023: 53264 2024: 66724 2025: 86510 2026: 113580 2027: 153996 2028: 197849 2029: 236524 2030: 263963 2031: 285553 2032: 305798 2033: 325212 2034: 345472 2035: 405056 2036: 586148 2037: 766188 2038: 940861 2039: 1109723 2040: 1269479 2041: 1420806 2042: 1557063 2043: 1691409 2044: 1831578 2045: 1974784 2046: 2115787 2047: 2244547 2048: 2367941 2049: 2488806 2050: 2584160
NPg Reference Scenario 2023: 53264 2024: 70769 2025: 97207 2026: 134529 2027: 192435 2028: 254775 2029: 307901 2030: 349733 2031: 379093 2032: 402101 2033: 422771 2034: 443995 2035: 505324 2036: 690349 2037: 873946 2038: 1050108 2039: 1216561 2040: 1372860 2041: 1515733 2042: 1639103 2043: 1759624 2044: 1888553 2045: 2017816 2046: 2148956 2047: 2276386 2048: 2397722 2049: 2519111 2050: 2614517
Counterfactual 2023: 53264 2024: 60432 2025: 68219 2026: 77424 2027: 87828 2028: 89636 2029: 97741 2030: 124562 2031: 151807 2032: 179238 2033: 206136 2034: 234453 2035: 267400 2036: 302166 2037: 335612 2038: 368072 2039: 400824 2040: 434501 2041: 469086 2042: 503228 2043: 540414 2044: 573236 2045: 588294 2046: 602950 2047: 617204 2048: 631357 2049: 646031 2050: 659448
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Figure 4: Battery storage capacity installed (GW)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Electric Engagement 1.215 2.211 2.831 Hydrogen Evolution 1.081 1.642 1.799 Holistic Transition 1.171 2.363 3.087 NPg Reference Scenario 1.264 2.501 2.991 Counterfactual 1.095 1.528 1.683
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Installed capacity (GW)
2030
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Electric Engagement 2023: 0.371 GW 2024: 0.409 GW 2025: 0.445 GW 2026: 0.485 GW 2027: 0.650 GW 2028: 0.821 GW 2029: 0.994 GW 2030: 1.215 GW 2031: 1.411 GW 2032: 1.760 GW 2033: 1.885 GW 2034: 1.992 GW 2035: 2.022 GW 2036: 2.053 GW 2037: 2.088 GW 2038: 2.126 GW 2039: 2.167 GW 2040: 2.211 GW 2041: 2.259 GW 2042: 2.310 GW 2043: 2.365 GW 2044: 2.422 GW 2045: 2.482 GW 2046: 2.545 GW 2047: 2.611 GW 2048: 2.681 GW 2049: 2.754 GW 2050: 2.831 GW
Hydrogen Evolution 2023: 0.371 GW 2024: 0.400 GW 2025: 0.430 GW 2026: 0.462 GW 2027: 0.675 GW 2028: 0.841 GW 2029: 0.965 GW 2030: 1.081 GW 2031: 1.178 GW 2032: 1.475 GW 2033: 1.581 GW 2034: 1.588 GW 2035: 1.596 GW 2036: 1.603 GW 2037: 1.612 GW 2038: 1.621 GW 2039: 1.631 GW 2040: 1.642 GW 2041: 1.654 GW 2042: 1.667 GW 2043: 1.681 GW 2044: 1.696 GW 2045: 1.711 GW 2046: 1.728 GW 2047: 1.744 GW 2048: 1.762 GW 2049: 1.780 GW 2050: 1.799 GW
Holistic Transition 2023: 0.371 GW 2024: 0.409 GW 2025: 0.445 GW 2026: 0.484 GW 2027: 0.680 GW 2028: 0.862 GW 2029: 1.015 GW 2030: 1.171 GW 2031: 1.544 GW 2032: 1.694 GW 2033: 1.977 GW 2034: 2.009 GW 2035: 2.043 GW 2036: 2.079 GW 2037: 2.120 GW 2038: 2.164 GW 2039: 2.212 GW 2040: 2.363 GW 2041: 2.419 GW 2042: 2.479 GW 2043: 2.542 GW 2044: 2.609 GW 2045: 2.679 GW 2046: 2.753 GW 2047: 2.830 GW 2048: 2.911 GW 2049: 2.997 GW 2050: 3.087 GW
NPg Reference Scenario 2023: 0.371 GW 2024: 0.411 GW 2025: 0.449 GW 2026: 0.489 GW 2027: 0.661 GW 2028: 0.840 GW 2029: 1.029 GW 2030: 1.264 GW 2031: 1.481 GW 2032: 2.040 GW 2033: 2.199 GW 2034: 2.332 GW 2035: 2.347 GW 2036: 2.364 GW 2037: 2.380 GW 2038: 2.408 GW 2039: 2.447 GW 2040: 2.501 GW 2041: 2.549 GW 2042: 2.462 GW 2043: 2.506 GW 2044: 2.575 GW 2045: 2.638 GW 2046: 2.702 GW 2047: 2.767 GW 2048: 2.836 GW 2049: 2.911 GW 2050: 2.991 GW
Counterfactual 2023: 0.371 GW 2024: 0.400 GW 2025: 0.429 GW 2026: 0.460 GW 2027: 0.660 GW 2028: 0.762 GW 2029: 0.928 GW 2030: 1.095 GW 2031: 1.098 GW 2032: 1.237 GW 2033: 1.423 GW 2034: 1.426 GW 2035: 1.507 GW 2036: 1.511 GW 2037: 1.515 GW 2038: 1.519 GW 2039: 1.523 GW 2040: 1.528 GW 2041: 1.534 GW 2042: 1.620 GW 2043: 1.626 GW 2044: 1.633 GW 2045: 1.641 GW 2046: 1.648 GW 2047: 1.656 GW 2048: 1.665 GW 2049: 1.674 GW 2050: 1.683 GW
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Figure 5: Renewable generation installed (GW)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Electric Engagement 5.567 9.536 14.389 Hydrogen Evolution 4.674 6.501 8.806 Holistic Transition 5.587 9.594 13.287 NPg Reference Scenario 5.713 10.281 14.253 Counterfactual 4.333 5.480 6.668
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Renewable generation (GW)
2030
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Electric Engagement 2023: 3.264 GW 2024: 3.853 GW 2025: 4.029 GW 2026: 4.224 GW 2027: 4.523 GW 2028: 4.837 GW 2029: 5.184 GW 2030: 5.567 GW 2031: 5.973 GW 2032: 6.404 GW 2033: 6.312 GW 2034: 6.751 GW 2035: 7.179 GW 2036: 7.619 GW 2037: 8.075 GW 2038: 8.523 GW 2039: 9.020 GW 2040: 9.536 GW 2041: 10.052 GW 2042: 10.982 GW 2043: 11.678 GW 2044: 12.177 GW 2045: 12.660 GW 2046: 13.052 GW 2047: 13.382 GW 2048: 13.723 GW 2049: 14.060 GW 2050: 14.389 GW
Hydrogen Evolution 2023: 3.264 GW 2024: 3.797 GW 2025: 3.922 GW 2026: 4.054 GW 2027: 4.182 GW 2028: 4.304 GW 2029: 4.463 GW 2030: 4.674 GW 2031: 4.892 GW 2032: 5.136 GW 2033: 5.343 GW 2034: 5.588 GW 2035: 5.775 GW 2036: 5.434 GW 2037: 5.570 GW 2038: 6.120 GW 2039: 6.291 GW 2040: 6.501 GW 2041: 6.722 GW 2042: 6.970 GW 2043: 7.196 GW 2044: 7.433 GW 2045: 7.666 GW 2046: 7.885 GW 2047: 8.129 GW 2048: 8.370 GW 2049: 8.603 GW 2050: 8.806 GW
Holistic Transition 2023: 3.264 GW 2024: 3.853 GW 2025: 4.029 GW 2026: 4.224 GW 2027: 4.537 GW 2028: 4.852 GW 2029: 5.208 GW 2030: 5.587 GW 2031: 5.537 GW 2032: 6.385 GW 2033: 6.784 GW 2034: 7.218 GW 2035: 7.585 GW 2036: 7.955 GW 2037: 8.306 GW 2038: 8.676 GW 2039: 9.103 GW 2040: 9.594 GW 2041: 10.062 GW 2042: 10.552 GW 2043: 11.036 GW 2044: 11.506 GW 2045: 11.901 GW 2046: 12.208 GW 2047: 12.474 GW 2048: 12.744 GW 2049: 13.019 GW 2050: 13.287 GW
NPg Reference Scenario 2023: 3.264 GW 2024: 3.853 GW 2025: 4.029 GW 2026: 4.224 GW 2027: 4.563 GW 2028: 4.910 GW 2029: 5.304 GW 2030: 5.713 GW 2031: 5.701 GW 2032: 6.595 GW 2033: 7.033 GW 2034: 7.513 GW 2035: 7.937 GW 2036: 8.366 GW 2037: 8.781 GW 2038: 9.218 GW 2039: 9.724 GW 2040: 10.281 GW 2041: 10.811 GW 2042: 11.369 GW 2043: 11.916 GW 2044: 12.440 GW 2045: 12.885 GW 2046: 13.211 GW 2047: 13.466 GW 2048: 13.734 GW 2049: 13.997 GW 2050: 14.253 GW
Counterfactual 2023: 3.264 GW 2024: 3.832 GW 2025: 3.938 GW 2026: 4.041 GW 2027: 4.094 GW 2028: 4.167 GW 2029: 4.238 GW 2030: 4.333 GW 2031: 4.445 GW 2032: 4.596 GW 2033: 4.725 GW 2034: 4.887 GW 2035: 5.001 GW 2036: 5.091 GW 2037: 5.166 GW 2038: 5.246 GW 2039: 5.347 GW 2040: 5.480 GW 2041: 5.626 GW 2042: 5.769 GW 2043: 5.480 GW 2044: 5.648 GW 2045: 5.811 GW 2046: 5.985 GW 2047: 6.164 GW 2048: 6.336 GW 2049: 6.506 GW 2050: 6.668 GW
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Figure 6: Electric bus and HGV uptake forecast (#)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Electric Engagement 20913 74156 84316 Hydrogen Evolution 16264 67685 82044 Holistic Transition 20913 74156 84316 NPg Reference Scenario 20913 74156 84316 Counterfactual 13561 62214 84004
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Number
2030
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Electric Engagement 2023: 458 2024: 2245 2025: 3636 2026: 5594 2027: 8238 2028: 11657 2029: 15898 2030: 20913 2031: 26561 2032: 32640 2033: 38945 2034: 45241 2035: 51323 2036: 57027 2037: 62235 2038: 66855 2039: 70833 2040: 74156 2041: 76856 2042: 78988 2043: 80618 2044: 81826 2045: 82694 2046: 83300 2047: 83714 2048: 83994 2049: 84184 2050: 84316
Hydrogen Evolution 2023: 458 2024: 1849 2025: 2910 2026: 4394 2027: 6407 2028: 9032 2029: 12327 2030: 16264 2031: 20757 2032: 25697 2033: 31011 2034: 36606 2035: 42354 2036: 48086 2037: 53624 2038: 58810 2039: 63523 2040: 67685 2041: 71252 2042: 74204 2043: 76549 2044: 78334 2045: 79635 2046: 80549 2047: 81171 2048: 81587 2049: 81862 2050: 82044
Holistic Transition 2023: 458 2024: 2245 2025: 3636 2026: 5594 2027: 8238 2028: 11657 2029: 15898 2030: 20913 2031: 26561 2032: 32640 2033: 38945 2034: 45241 2035: 51323 2036: 57027 2037: 62235 2038: 66855 2039: 70833 2040: 74156 2041: 76856 2042: 78988 2043: 80618 2044: 81826 2045: 82694 2046: 83300 2047: 83714 2048: 83994 2049: 84184 2050: 84316
NPg Reference Scenario 2023: 458 2024: 2245 2025: 3636 2026: 5594 2027: 8238 2028: 11657 2029: 15898 2030: 20913 2031: 26561 2032: 32640 2033: 38945 2034: 45241 2035: 51323 2036: 57027 2037: 62235 2038: 66855 2039: 70833 2040: 74156 2041: 76856 2042: 78988 2043: 80618 2044: 81826 2045: 82694 2046: 83300 2047: 83714 2048: 83994 2049: 84184 2050: 84316
Counterfactual 2023: 458 2024: 1595 2025: 2451 2026: 3650 2027: 5286 2028: 7445 2029: 10200 2030: 13561 2031: 17467 2032: 21810 2033: 26469 2034: 31347 2035: 36387 2036: 41562 2037: 46841 2038: 52137 2039: 57311 2040: 62214 2041: 66716 2042: 70715 2043: 74153 2044: 77002 2045: 79263 2046: 80975 2047: 82207 2048: 83058 2049: 83628 2050: 84004
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Network data
Figure 7: Annual peak demand (with ToUT) (GW)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Electric Engagement 8.338 11.770 14.332 Hydrogen Evolution 8.414 12.521 15.901 Holistic Transition 8.325 11.605 13.736 Counterfactual 8.298 10.457 11.612 NPg Reference Scenario 8.568 11.986 14.510 NPg Reference Scenario (No ToUT) - - - 8.952 12.809 15.469
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Annual peak demand (GW)
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Electric Engagement 2023: 6.312 GW 2024: 6.595 GW 2025: 6.849 GW 2026: 7.129 GW 2027: 7.582 GW 2028: 7.837 GW 2029: 8.043 GW 2030: 8.338 GW 2031: 8.536 GW 2032: 8.732 GW 2033: 8.918 GW 2034: 9.099 GW 2035: 9.510 GW 2036: 10.016 GW 2037: 10.483 GW 2038: 10.928 GW 2039: 11.346 GW 2040: 11.770 GW 2041: 12.098 GW 2042: 12.391 GW 2043: 12.674 GW 2044: 12.955 GW 2045: 13.258 GW 2046: 13.506 GW 2047: 13.735 GW 2048: 13.951 GW 2049: 14.163 GW 2050: 14.332 GW
Hydrogen Evolution 2023: 6.345 GW 2024: 6.643 GW 2025: 6.921 GW 2026: 7.218 GW 2027: 7.670 GW 2028: 7.915 GW 2029: 8.115 GW 2030: 8.414 GW 2031: 8.620 GW 2032: 8.823 GW 2033: 9.021 GW 2034: 9.217 GW 2035: 9.676 GW 2036: 10.302 GW 2037: 10.888 GW 2038: 11.450 GW 2039: 11.984 GW 2040: 12.521 GW 2041: 13.000 GW 2042: 13.456 GW 2043: 13.893 GW 2044: 14.304 GW 2045: 14.692 GW 2046: 14.984 GW 2047: 15.249 GW 2048: 15.509 GW 2049: 15.734 GW 2050: 15.901 GW
Holistic Transition 2023: 6.312 GW 2024: 6.594 GW 2025: 6.846 GW 2026: 7.125 GW 2027: 7.575 GW 2028: 7.828 GW 2029: 8.032 GW 2030: 8.325 GW 2031: 8.522 GW 2032: 8.715 GW 2033: 8.899 GW 2034: 9.076 GW 2035: 9.481 GW 2036: 9.962 GW 2037: 10.402 GW 2038: 10.820 GW 2039: 11.210 GW 2040: 11.605 GW 2041: 11.876 GW 2042: 12.116 GW 2043: 12.349 GW 2044: 12.581 GW 2045: 12.841 GW 2046: 13.053 GW 2047: 13.244 GW 2048: 13.424 GW 2049: 13.597 GW 2050: 13.736 GW
Counterfactual 2023: 6.352 GW 2024: 6.652 GW 2025: 6.909 GW 2026: 7.189 GW 2027: 7.631 GW 2028: 7.847 GW 2029: 8.013 GW 2030: 8.298 GW 2031: 8.499 GW 2032: 8.703 GW 2033: 8.903 GW 2034: 9.104 GW 2035: 9.441 GW 2036: 9.646 GW 2037: 9.847 GW 2038: 10.046 GW 2039: 10.239 GW 2040: 10.457 GW 2041: 10.630 GW 2042: 10.789 GW 2043: 10.943 GW 2044: 11.081 GW 2045: 11.223 GW 2046: 11.314 GW 2047: 11.397 GW 2048: 11.475 GW 2049: 11.547 GW 2050: 11.612 GW
NPg Reference Scenario 2023: 6.312 GW 2024: 6.610 GW 2025: 6.905 GW 2026: 7.249 GW 2027: 7.761 GW 2028: 8.040 GW 2029: 8.245 GW 2030: 8.568 GW 2031: 8.793 GW 2032: 9.001 GW 2033: 9.194 GW 2034: 9.378 GW 2035: 9.782 GW 2036: 10.289 GW 2037: 10.750 GW 2038: 11.184 GW 2039: 11.583 GW 2040: 11.986 GW 2041: 12.314 GW 2042: 12.599 GW 2043: 12.870 GW 2044: 13.140 GW 2045: 13.432 GW 2046: 13.675 GW 2047: 13.905 GW 2048: 14.124 GW 2049: 14.338 GW 2050: 14.510 GW
NPg Reference Scenario (No ToUT) 2023: 6.351 GW 2024: 6.676 GW 2025: 7.009 GW 2026: 7.404 GW 2027: 7.969 GW 2028: 8.304 GW 2029: 8.567 GW 2030: 8.952 GW 2031: 9.236 GW 2032: 9.495 GW 2033: 9.736 GW 2034: 9.964 GW 2035: 10.415 GW 2036: 10.969 GW 2037: 11.471 GW 2038: 11.943 GW 2039: 12.376 GW 2040: 12.809 GW 2041: 13.162 GW 2042: 13.469 GW 2043: 13.760 GW 2044: 14.046 GW 2045: 14.352 GW 2046: 14.606 GW 2047: 14.845 GW 2048: 15.071 GW 2049: 15.292 GW 2050: 15.469 GW
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Figure 8: Network peak demand breakdown - NPg Reference Scenario (MW)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Domestic 2322 2403 2537 I & C 4799 4835 4806 Heat pumps - domestic 263 1661 3269 Heat pumps - I & C 66 298 639 EV 974 2254 2668 Electric HGVs 117 471 523 Electric Buses 27 63 69
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Annual gross peak demand (MW)
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Domestic 2023: 2289 MW 2024: 2291 MW 2025: 2295 MW 2026: 2298 MW 2027: 2303 MW 2028: 2308 MW 2029: 2314 MW 2030: 2322 MW 2031: 2333 MW 2032: 2343 MW 2033: 2349 MW 2034: 2354 MW 2035: 2360 MW 2036: 2366 MW 2037: 2372 MW 2038: 2382 MW 2039: 2393 MW 2040: 2403 MW 2041: 2413 MW 2042: 2424 MW 2043: 2437 MW 2044: 2451 MW 2045: 2465 MW 2046: 2478 MW 2047: 2492 MW 2048: 2507 MW 2049: 2522 MW 2050: 2537 MW
I & C 2023: 3840 MW 2024: 4063 MW 2025: 4235 MW 2026: 4406 MW 2027: 4703 MW 2028: 4754 MW 2029: 4730 MW 2030: 4799 MW 2031: 4782 MW 2032: 4765 MW 2033: 4750 MW 2034: 4736 MW 2035: 4852 MW 2036: 4840 MW 2037: 4829 MW 2038: 4819 MW 2039: 4810 MW 2040: 4835 MW 2041: 4827 MW 2042: 4820 MW 2043: 4813 MW 2044: 4806 MW 2045: 4835 MW 2046: 4829 MW 2047: 4823 MW 2048: 4817 MW 2049: 4812 MW 2050: 4806 MW
Heat pumps - domestic 2023: 32 MW 2024: 44 MW 2025: 62 MW 2026: 89 MW 2027: 138 MW 2028: 192 MW 2029: 234 MW 2030: 263 MW 2031: 281 MW 2032: 294 MW 2033: 306 MW 2034: 318 MW 2035: 409 MW 2036: 698 MW 2037: 962 MW 2038: 1210 MW 2039: 1443 MW 2040: 1661 MW 2041: 1858 MW 2042: 2027 MW 2043: 2190 MW 2044: 2361 MW 2045: 2529 MW 2046: 2696 MW 2047: 2856 MW 2048: 3007 MW 2049: 3158 MW 2050: 3269 MW
Heat pumps - I & C 2023: 34 MW 2024: 37 MW 2025: 39 MW 2026: 41 MW 2027: 48 MW 2028: 54 MW 2029: 60 MW 2030: 66 MW 2031: 71 MW 2032: 76 MW 2033: 80 MW 2034: 85 MW 2035: 89 MW 2036: 133 MW 2037: 176 MW 2038: 218 MW 2039: 259 MW 2040: 298 MW 2041: 336 MW 2042: 372 MW 2043: 407 MW 2044: 441 MW 2045: 475 MW 2046: 508 MW 2047: 541 MW 2048: 574 MW 2049: 606 MW 2050: 639 MW
EV 2023: 114 MW 2024: 162 MW 2025: 253 MW 2026: 381 MW 2027: 517 MW 2028: 657 MW 2029: 801 MW 2030: 974 MW 2031: 1138 MW 2032: 1287 MW 2033: 1424 MW 2034: 1551 MW 2035: 1691 MW 2036: 1829 MW 2037: 1952 MW 2038: 2065 MW 2039: 2164 MW 2040: 2254 MW 2041: 2330 MW 2042: 2397 MW 2043: 2455 MW 2044: 2505 MW 2045: 2548 MW 2046: 2580 MW 2047: 2607 MW 2048: 2631 MW 2049: 2651 MW 2050: 2668 MW
Electric HGVs 2023: 0 MW 2024: 7 MW 2025: 13 MW 2026: 22 MW 2027: 37 MW 2028: 57 MW 2029: 84 MW 2030: 117 MW 2031: 157 MW 2032: 201 MW 2033: 246 MW 2034: 291 MW 2035: 333 MW 2036: 371 MW 2037: 404 MW 2038: 431 MW 2039: 453 MW 2040: 471 MW 2041: 484 MW 2042: 494 MW 2043: 502 MW 2044: 507 MW 2045: 511 MW 2046: 515 MW 2047: 517 MW 2048: 519 MW 2049: 521 MW 2050: 523 MW
Electric Buses 2023: 2 MW 2024: 6 MW 2025: 9 MW 2026: 12 MW 2027: 15 MW 2028: 18 MW 2029: 22 MW 2030: 27 MW 2031: 31 MW 2032: 35 MW 2033: 40 MW 2034: 44 MW 2035: 48 MW 2036: 52 MW 2037: 55 MW 2038: 58 MW 2039: 61 MW 2040: 63 MW 2041: 65 MW 2042: 66 MW 2043: 67 MW 2044: 68 MW 2045: 68 MW 2046: 68 MW 2047: 69 MW 2048: 69 MW 2049: 69 MW 2050: 69 MW
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Figure 9: Network energy consumption breakdown - NPg Reference Scenario (TWh)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Domestic 11.188 11.587 12.230 I & C 23.224 22.731 22.384 Heat pumps - domestic 0.930 5.759 11.279 Heat pumps - I & C 0.347 1.586 3.416 EV 4.452 10.540 12.511 Electric HGVs 1.217 4.882 5.423 Electric Buses 0.273 0.647 0.704
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Network energy consumption (TWh)
2030
2040
2050
Domestic 2023: 10.935 TWh 2024: 10.954 TWh 2025: 10.978 TWh 2026: 11.006 TWh 2027: 11.041 TWh 2028: 11.084 TWh 2029: 11.132 TWh 2030: 11.188 TWh 2031: 11.255 TWh 2032: 11.300 TWh 2033: 11.327 TWh 2034: 11.353 TWh 2035: 11.381 TWh 2036: 11.410 TWh 2037: 11.438 TWh 2038: 11.488 TWh 2039: 11.537 TWh 2040: 11.587 TWh 2041: 11.636 TWh 2042: 11.686 TWh 2043: 11.752 TWh 2044: 11.817 TWh 2045: 11.883 TWh 2046: 11.949 TWh 2047: 12.014 TWh 2048: 12.086 TWh 2049: 12.158 TWh 2050: 12.230 TWh
I & C 2023: 22.676 TWh 2024: 23.026 TWh 2025: 23.313 TWh 2026: 23.321 TWh 2027: 23.338 TWh 2028: 23.293 TWh 2029: 23.178 TWh 2030: 23.224 TWh 2031: 23.124 TWh 2032: 23.030 TWh 2033: 22.944 TWh 2034: 22.863 TWh 2035: 22.970 TWh 2036: 22.900 TWh 2037: 22.836 TWh 2038: 22.777 TWh 2039: 22.722 TWh 2040: 22.731 TWh 2041: 22.684 TWh 2042: 22.639 TWh 2043: 22.598 TWh 2044: 22.559 TWh 2045: 22.557 TWh 2046: 22.521 TWh 2047: 22.486 TWh 2048: 22.452 TWh 2049: 22.418 TWh 2050: 22.384 TWh
Heat pumps - domestic 2023: 0.113 TWh 2024: 0.156 TWh 2025: 0.221 TWh 2026: 0.317 TWh 2027: 0.492 TWh 2028: 0.681 TWh 2029: 0.827 TWh 2030: 0.930 TWh 2031: 0.993 TWh 2032: 1.039 TWh 2033: 1.080 TWh 2034: 1.122 TWh 2035: 1.440 TWh 2036: 2.439 TWh 2037: 3.349 TWh 2038: 4.203 TWh 2039: 5.006 TWh 2040: 5.759 TWh 2041: 6.437 TWh 2042: 7.018 TWh 2043: 7.579 TWh 2044: 8.171 TWh 2045: 8.750 TWh 2046: 9.323 TWh 2047: 9.872 TWh 2048: 10.389 TWh 2049: 10.902 TWh 2050: 11.279 TWh
Heat pumps - I & C 2023: 0.179 TWh 2024: 0.196 TWh 2025: 0.206 TWh 2026: 0.221 TWh 2027: 0.253 TWh 2028: 0.287 TWh 2029: 0.319 TWh 2030: 0.347 TWh 2031: 0.373 TWh 2032: 0.399 TWh 2033: 0.424 TWh 2034: 0.449 TWh 2035: 0.472 TWh 2036: 0.706 TWh 2037: 0.936 TWh 2038: 1.160 TWh 2039: 1.379 TWh 2040: 1.586 TWh 2041: 1.788 TWh 2042: 1.979 TWh 2043: 2.166 TWh 2044: 2.351 TWh 2045: 2.534 TWh 2046: 2.715 TWh 2047: 2.893 TWh 2048: 3.069 TWh 2049: 3.243 TWh 2050: 3.416 TWh
EV 2023: 0.461 TWh 2024: 0.685 TWh 2025: 1.095 TWh 2026: 1.679 TWh 2027: 2.309 TWh 2028: 2.961 TWh 2029: 3.637 TWh 2030: 4.452 TWh 2031: 5.226 TWh 2032: 5.937 TWh 2033: 6.594 TWh 2034: 7.207 TWh 2035: 7.874 TWh 2036: 8.530 TWh 2037: 9.110 TWh 2038: 9.644 TWh 2039: 10.114 TWh 2040: 10.540 TWh 2041: 10.900 TWh 2042: 11.214 TWh 2043: 11.488 TWh 2044: 11.726 TWh 2045: 11.931 TWh 2046: 12.083 TWh 2047: 12.214 TWh 2048: 12.327 TWh 2049: 12.425 TWh 2050: 12.511 TWh
Electric HGVs 2023: 0.005 TWh 2024: 0.069 TWh 2025: 0.131 TWh 2026: 0.230 TWh 2027: 0.379 TWh 2028: 0.588 TWh 2029: 0.867 TWh 2030: 1.217 TWh 2031: 1.628 TWh 2032: 2.080 TWh 2033: 2.552 TWh 2034: 3.017 TWh 2035: 3.452 TWh 2036: 3.844 TWh 2037: 4.184 TWh 2038: 4.469 TWh 2039: 4.701 TWh 2040: 4.882 TWh 2041: 5.021 TWh 2042: 5.125 TWh 2043: 5.201 TWh 2044: 5.258 TWh 2045: 5.301 TWh 2046: 5.334 TWh 2047: 5.361 TWh 2048: 5.383 TWh 2049: 5.404 TWh 2050: 5.423 TWh
Electric Buses 2023: 0.021 TWh 2024: 0.064 TWh 2025: 0.089 TWh 2026: 0.119 TWh 2027: 0.153 TWh 2028: 0.189 TWh 2029: 0.230 TWh 2030: 0.273 TWh 2031: 0.318 TWh 2032: 0.363 TWh 2033: 0.409 TWh 2034: 0.453 TWh 2035: 0.495 TWh 2036: 0.534 TWh 2037: 0.569 TWh 2038: 0.600 TWh 2039: 0.626 TWh 2040: 0.647 TWh 2041: 0.664 TWh 2042: 0.677 TWh 2043: 0.687 TWh 2044: 0.694 TWh 2045: 0.699 TWh 2046: 0.703 TWh 2047: 0.704 TWh 2048: 0.705 TWh 2049: 0.705 TWh 2050: 0.704 TWh
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Figure 10: Annual network energy consumption (TWh)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Electric Engagement 40.650 56.845 67.109 Hydrogen Evolution 40.372 56.676 67.791 Holistic Transition 40.605 56.386 65.120 NPg Reference Scenario 41.630 57.732 67.948 Counterfactual 39.785 50.666 56.564
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Energy consumption (TWh)
2030
2040
2050
Electric Engagement 2023: 34.390 TWh 2024: 35.090 TWh 2025: 35.796 TWh 2026: 36.377 TWh 2027: 37.190 TWh 2028: 38.212 TWh 2029: 39.328 TWh 2030: 40.650 TWh 2031: 41.819 TWh 2032: 42.991 TWh 2033: 44.133 TWh 2034: 45.240 TWh 2035: 46.909 TWh 2036: 49.210 TWh 2037: 51.308 TWh 2038: 53.282 TWh 2039: 55.106 TWh 2040: 56.845 TWh 2041: 58.224 TWh 2042: 59.448 TWh 2043: 60.613 TWh 2044: 61.749 TWh 2045: 62.854 TWh 2046: 63.838 TWh 2047: 64.747 TWh 2048: 65.600 TWh 2049: 66.431 TWh 2050: 67.109 TWh
Hydrogen Evolution 2023: 34.383 TWh 2024: 35.107 TWh 2025: 35.852 TWh 2026: 36.438 TWh 2027: 37.183 TWh 2028: 38.100 TWh 2029: 39.117 TWh 2030: 40.372 TWh 2031: 41.480 TWh 2032: 42.598 TWh 2033: 43.711 TWh 2034: 44.838 TWh 2035: 46.547 TWh 2036: 48.812 TWh 2037: 50.929 TWh 2038: 52.952 TWh 2039: 54.847 TWh 2040: 56.676 TWh 2041: 58.311 TWh 2042: 59.828 TWh 2043: 61.253 TWh 2044: 62.566 TWh 2045: 63.738 TWh 2046: 64.699 TWh 2047: 65.576 TWh 2048: 66.422 TWh 2049: 67.176 TWh 2050: 67.791 TWh
Holistic Transition 2023: 34.390 TWh 2024: 35.085 TWh 2025: 35.786 TWh 2026: 36.361 TWh 2027: 37.167 TWh 2028: 38.182 TWh 2029: 39.290 TWh 2030: 40.605 TWh 2031: 41.768 TWh 2032: 42.934 TWh 2033: 44.071 TWh 2034: 45.173 TWh 2035: 46.821 TWh 2036: 49.051 TWh 2037: 51.077 TWh 2038: 52.976 TWh 2039: 54.724 TWh 2040: 56.386 TWh 2041: 57.553 TWh 2042: 58.578 TWh 2043: 59.555 TWh 2044: 60.511 TWh 2045: 61.466 TWh 2046: 62.326 TWh 2047: 63.102 TWh 2048: 63.836 TWh 2049: 64.544 TWh 2050: 65.120 TWh
NPg Reference Scenario 2023: 34.390 TWh 2024: 35.150 TWh 2025: 36.033 TWh 2026: 36.894 TWh 2027: 37.963 TWh 2028: 39.082 TWh 2029: 40.190 TWh 2030: 41.630 TWh 2031: 42.917 TWh 2032: 44.150 TWh 2033: 45.329 TWh 2034: 46.463 TWh 2035: 48.084 TWh 2036: 50.363 TWh 2037: 52.422 TWh 2038: 54.341 TWh 2039: 56.084 TWh 2040: 57.732 TWh 2041: 59.130 TWh 2042: 60.338 TWh 2043: 61.472 TWh 2044: 62.577 TWh 2045: 63.654 TWh 2046: 64.627 TWh 2047: 65.544 TWh 2048: 66.411 TWh 2049: 67.255 TWh 2050: 67.948 TWh
Counterfactual 2023: 34.381 TWh 2024: 35.108 TWh 2025: 35.781 TWh 2026: 36.303 TWh 2027: 37.011 TWh 2028: 37.809 TWh 2029: 38.657 TWh 2030: 39.785 TWh 2031: 40.802 TWh 2032: 41.849 TWh 2033: 42.895 TWh 2034: 43.960 TWh 2035: 45.238 TWh 2036: 46.325 TWh 2037: 47.418 TWh 2038: 48.514 TWh 2039: 49.582 TWh 2040: 50.666 TWh 2041: 51.610 TWh 2042: 52.471 TWh 2043: 53.268 TWh 2044: 53.974 TWh 2045: 54.592 TWh 2046: 55.083 TWh 2047: 55.515 TWh 2048: 55.904 TWh 2049: 56.255 TWh 2050: 56.564 TWh
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Figure 11: Additional industrial peak demand breakdown - NPg Reference Scenario (MW)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Electrolysers 103 1124 1936 Large industry Fuel Switching 92 271 827
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1,000
1,500
2,000
Peak demand (MW)
2030
2040
2050
Electrolysers 2023: 0 MW 2024: 0 MW 2025: 9 MW 2026: 22 MW 2027: 26 MW 2028: 34 MW 2029: 68 MW 2030: 103 MW 2031: 147 MW 2032: 217 MW 2033: 310 MW 2034: 424 MW 2035: 583 MW 2036: 665 MW 2037: 981 MW 2038: 1018 MW 2039: 1070 MW 2040: 1124 MW 2041: 1228 MW 2042: 1454 MW 2043: 1594 MW 2044: 1703 MW 2045: 1769 MW 2046: 1856 MW 2047: 1942 MW 2048: 1969 MW 2049: 1967 MW 2050: 1936 MW
Large industry Fuel Switching 2023: 21 MW 2024: 28 MW 2025: 35 MW 2026: 46 MW 2027: 58 MW 2028: 69 MW 2029: 81 MW 2030: 92 MW 2031: 108 MW 2032: 123 MW 2033: 138 MW 2034: 153 MW 2035: 168 MW 2036: 189 MW 2037: 209 MW 2038: 230 MW 2039: 250 MW 2040: 271 MW 2041: 313 MW 2042: 355 MW 2043: 397 MW 2044: 439 MW 2045: 481 MW 2046: 550 MW 2047: 619 MW 2048: 688 MW 2049: 757 MW 2050: 827 MW
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Figure 12: Additional industrial energy consumption breakdown - NPg Reference Scenario (TWh)
Scenario 2030 2040 2050 Electrolysers 0.906 9.844 16.957 Large industry Fuel Switching 0.809 2.371 7.241
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15
Energy consumption (TWh)
2030
2040
2050
Electrolysers 2023: 0.000 TWh 2024: 0.001 TWh 2025: 0.079 TWh 2026: 0.191 TWh 2027: 0.224 TWh 2028: 0.298 TWh 2029: 0.593 TWh 2030: 0.906 TWh 2031: 1.291 TWh 2032: 1.897 TWh 2033: 2.720 TWh 2034: 3.713 TWh 2035: 5.103 TWh 2036: 5.828 TWh 2037: 8.596 TWh 2038: 8.921 TWh 2039: 9.369 TWh 2040: 9.844 TWh 2041: 10.757 TWh 2042: 12.740 TWh 2043: 13.967 TWh 2044: 14.915 TWh 2045: 15.498 TWh 2046: 16.257 TWh 2047: 17.012 TWh 2048: 17.251 TWh 2049: 17.230 TWh 2050: 16.957 TWh
Large industry Fuel Switching 2023: 0.183 TWh 2024: 0.244 TWh 2025: 0.305 TWh 2026: 0.406 TWh 2027: 0.506 TWh 2028: 0.607 TWh 2029: 0.708 TWh 2030: 0.809 TWh 2031: 0.942 TWh 2032: 1.075 TWh 2033: 1.208 TWh 2034: 1.341 TWh 2035: 1.474 TWh 2036: 1.653 TWh 2037: 1.833 TWh 2038: 2.012 TWh 2039: 2.191 TWh 2040: 2.371 TWh 2041: 2.739 TWh 2042: 3.107 TWh 2043: 3.475 TWh 2044: 3.843 TWh 2045: 4.211 TWh 2046: 4.817 TWh 2047: 5.423 TWh 2048: 6.029 TWh 2049: 6.635 TWh 2050: 7.241 TWh
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